The duration effect of pictorial health warnings on tobacco consumption in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Pictorial health warnings (PHW) were introduced in Mexico by the end of 2010. Different studies have assessed how PHW influence attitude or desire to renounce smoking, but they have not studied the actual effect on the demand of tobacco products. Our objective in this paper is to analyze the effect of duration of pictorial health warnings on consumption of tobacco in Mexico. We assess the influence of different consecutive rounds of pictorial warnings, taking into account their length and the use of repeated images. We use a Dynamic Least Squares model (DOLS) with quarterly data (1994-2015), to estimate the long run demand of cigarettes in Mexico, as a function of per-capita income, the relative price of tobacco, different regulatory measures and the different rounds of pictograms, its duration, and the use of repeated images. We find evidence indicating that the pictorial health warnings have reduced consumption of cigarettes, that the effect has decreased in the last rounds, and that the most effective duration of the rounds is six months. PHW regulation deters consumption; however, its effectiveness decreases over time, suggesting that consumers tend to adapt to images.

KEYWORDS:

• Smoking
• health economics
• regulation
• pictorial warnings
• Mexico

Acknowledgements

This paper is a product of the Project: Studies on the Economic Aspects of Regulation in Mexico [Estudios sobre Aspectos Económicos de la Regulación en México] hosted by the Economics Department at the Tecnologico de Monterrey. Students participating in the Project are granted a scholarship to undertake courses abroad, and to make applied research for one year. Jorge Ibarra-Salazar is the coordinator of the Project. Edgardo Ayala-Gaytan is an Advisor and Consultant of the students that participate in the Project. José Carlos Romero-Rojas participated as a student in the Project. None of the institutions that provided funding was involved with the development and writing of the paper.

Disclosure statement

Edgardo Ayala-Gaytan and Carlos Romero-Rojas declare that they do not have conflict of interest. Jorge Ibarra-Salazar made a study about demand seasonality in 2014 for British American Tobacco-Mexico SA de CV.

Notes

1 https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=702825104177.

Additional information

Funding

The Project has received financial and/or in-kind support from the following institutions: Cervecería Cuauhtémoc-Moctezuma SA de CV (2013–2015), Fomento Económico Mexicano SA (2016), British American Tobacco-México SA de CV (2017), Southern Methodist University (2013–2016), Tecnológico de Monterrey (2016), and the Comisión Federal para la Protección contra Riesgos Sanitarios (2014–2015).