MARRIAGE SQUEEZE IN CHINA'S FUTURE

Abstract

The preference for sons in China and discrimination against girls have resulted in a male marriage squeeze. This paper develops two new indices of the sex ratio among potential first marriage partners by normalising first marriage frequencies and by eliminating the tempo effect in first marriage. Using two newly developed indices and two existing ones, the authors predict China's marriage squeeze for the period 2000–2100. The authors find that the new indices produce almost the same results as the existing ones when measuring the sex ratios of marriageable males to females. For the years 2015 to 2050, the sex ratio of potential males to females is over 1.15, and then fluctuates around 1.1 after 2060. From 2015 to 2045, China will face an annual surplus of one million males. However, if the high sex ratio at birth cannot be controlled, the male marriage squeeze will be much more severe.

Keywords:

• marriage squeeze
• sex ratio
• first marriage partners
• tempo effect
• normalising

Notes

1. This work is jointly supported by the Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (08&ZD048, 09XSH005), Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in Universities of the Ministry of Education of China (IRT0855) and the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiotong University.