DAUGHTER DISCRIMINATION AND FUTURE SEX RATIO AT BIRTH IN INDIA

Abstract

This paper examines recent trends in sex ratio at birth in all the major states of India, based on three rounds of the National Family Health Survey. It finds evidence of an increase in the ratio, particularly at the second-order birth among women having a first daughter in many states in the northwestern region of the country. Also, there are signs of daughter aversion emerging in Odisha, an eastern state. Based on parity progression ratios and the trend in sex selection, an attempt is made to estimate the peak of sex ratio at birth in India. With moderate intensification in sex selection in the northwestern region, sex ratio at birth is expected to reach a peak of 117–119 males per 100 females around the period 2021–2026. If, in addition, sex selection spreads further in the southeastern region, the sex ratio at birth in India could even increase to a level of 124.

Keywords:

• sex ratio at birth
• discrimination
• parity progression ratio
• projection
• India

Notes

1. The Women's Reservation Bill, ensuring 33 per cent reservation to women in Parliament and state legislative bodies, was passed in the Council of States in March 2010. The supporters of the bill stated that increased political participation of women would help them fight the abuse, discrimination and inequality to which they are subject.

2. Except the states of Jammu and Kashmir, all major states were included in the study. The data collection in NFHS 1 (1992–1993) was not held in Jammu and Kashmir. In this study, we considered an undivided Uttar Pradesh (now Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal), Madhya Pradesh (now divided into Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) and an undivided Bihar (inclusive of Jharkhand). States in the northwestern region include Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, while the southeastern region comprises Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

3. ‘Caste’, in India, is an endogamous group, where the status of an individual with reference to the group is determined by his or her birth. The four-fold classification of Varna, namely, Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishyas and Shudras, provided a traditional way of grouping the castes in terms of hierarchy, with Brahmins at the top and Shudras at the bottom. After independence, the categories of ‘scheduled castes’ (SCs) and ‘scheduled tribes’ (STs) were created under the provisions of the constitution, followed by the creation of ‘other backward classes (OBCs)’ in order to extend the state benefits to the SCs, STs and OBCs (Bhagat 2011).

4. The present estimation of SRB is based on cohort parity progression ratios. The Sample Registration System, on the other hand, provides estimates based on annual births. As fertility declines, the period rates are likely to be slightly higher than the cohort rates.

5. A cursory attempt was made to check whether sex selection was likely to prevail only among those with a small family size norm, and not among those who preferred a larger family size. Towards this end, we obtained the proportion of those having girls for their first two births among those with an ideal family size of: (a) two children; and (b) more than two children. Interestingly, in the northwestern region, for the period 1991–2005, it is found to be 22 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, for the two groups. That is, for women with a family size norm of two children, the proportion having girls as their first two births is significantly (statistically) lower than the expected level of 24 per cent in the recent period. For the southeastern region, the proportion of women having girls for their first two births conforms to the theoretical expectation of 24 per cent, irrespective of their ideal family size.