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Abstract
This paper examines and projects the dynamics of ageing in the five largest ethnic groups in Indonesia. Indonesia as a whole has been undergoing its second demographic transition since 2000–2005 and opened the demographic window of opportunity in 2005. However, the timing of the two events is very different in each ethnic group. The differences may necessitate different ageing policies. If not managed wisely, they could result in ethnic conflicts, especially if Indonesia follows the slower decline fertility scenario.
The paper projects the timing of the demographic window of opportunity and second demographic transition for each of the five ethnic groups. It utilizes the 2000 population census data set—the first census/survey to collect information on ethnicity since the 1930 census.
Notes
1. We assume an IMR of 47 per 1000 in 2000–2005, using the estimated IMR derived from the 2000 population data. Our estimate may be too high, but we allow for a relatively fast decline in the projection of the infant mortality, assuming that the health situation is much better after 2000 than during the severe crisis in 1997–2000.