Division or unification in Cyprus? The role of demographics, attitudes and party inclination on Greek Cypriot preferences for a solution to the Cyprus problem

Abstract

In April 2004 the Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan Plan in a referendum while the Turkish Cypriots accepted it. The Annan Plan was the UN's plan to reunite Cyprus into one federal state consisting of two equal constituent states, one Greek Cypriot and one Turkish Cypriot. The results of the referendum show that the Greek Cypriot electorate is a major stumbling block to accepting the UN's best offer for a solution to the Cyprus problem. In this article the Greek Cypriots' preferences for the structure of a solution are explored via an econometric analysis of recent public opinion survey data. The analysis finds that preferences for a solution among Greek Cypriots are a function of age and attitudes toward coexisting with Turkish Cypriots. The younger Greek Cypriots show a preference for separation of the two ethnicities, while those who are more optimistic regarding the ability of the two ethnicities to coexist show a preference for unification of the island.

Notes

1. It should be noted that CYMAR conducts Eurobarometer surveys in the Republic of Cyprus on behalf of the European Union.

2. Another demographic variable that was run in some regressions was highest education level attained. Because it is highly correlated with socioeconomic status (r = 0.726) and because it added nothing to the analysis, it was removed as an independent variable for the regressions shown in the analysis.