The British–Irish Relationship in the Twenty-first Century

Abstract

The twentieth anniversary of the Good Friday agreement offers a useful vantage point from which to review the agreement’s progress, particularly because the anniversary coincides with Brexit, a process likely to place it under particular strain. Using both evidence offered elsewhere in this collection and new material, this article reviews the two decades since the agreement in 1998 using as a framework the three relationships that the agreement sought to address. First, it argues that a combination of structural reform, social change, demographic transformation and political reconfiguration has substantially removed the incentives for inter-communal conflict in Northern Ireland, though without completely eliminating overt political violence, as worrying indicators of dissent survive. Second, it contends that the provisions of the agreement for the promotion of institutionalised cooperation between Northern Ireland and the Republic have had limited impact, but that they have been supplemented by new forms of all-Ireland integration driven by change at EU level. Third, the article suggests that the once-hostile relationship between the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom has mellowed, a change that both facilitated the settlement of 1998 and was itself reinforced by this. The article concludes that the institutions established by the Good Friday agreement have had a mixed impact, and that they face a particular challenge in the context of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Notes

1. Projection based on the 2011 census by excluding the 2011 population aged 85 or more and adding new age groups based on the assumption that their composition would be the same as that of the 0–4 age cohort in 2011. This would generate an estimated Catholic population by community background in 2021 of 46.1%, with Protestants at 46.2% and others at 7.7%. In reality, the proportion of Catholics in this new group is likely to be higher than that estimated here since the new age cohorts are likely to have a higher proportion of Catholics than assumed here. ‘Community background’ refers to self-reported affiliation or, for those not so reporting, religion in which brought up.

2. Monitoring now includes private sector enterprises with more than 10 employees, but for consistency over time the data reported here refer only to enterprises with at least 26 employees.

3. Over the decade 2007–2016, the percentage of Catholics in the civil service fell on average 0.2% below the overall percentage in the monitored work force, while the percentage of Catholics in the private sector fell 0.4% below the overall percentage.

4. Petitions of concern requiring a cross-community vote may be triggered by 30 Assembly members. A cross-community vote, which may also arise for other reasons, requires support of a weighted majority (60%) of members present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations. In certain circumstances, ‘parallel consent’, a majority of unionist and nationalist members present and voting, may be required.

5. For example, one of the chief architects of the agreement, Bertie Ahern, is quoted as saying that ‘a united Ireland could not be achieved by a simple majority poll in favour of constitutional change. … Fifty percent plus one is not the way to do it. That would be a divisive thing to do’ (Belfast Telegraph, 20 November 2008). Speaking in a BBC interview on 16 October 2017, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that a simple majority in a border poll would not be enough to secure a united Ireland, and that he did not favour changing Northern Ireland's constitutional position ‘on a 50 per cent plus one basis’ (Irish News, 18 October 2017).

6. For successive references by the Taoiseach to the prospective revival of the Conference, see Dáil Debates Unrevised, 961 (7), 21 November 2017 and 962 (1), 22 November 2017; Irish Times, 22 December 2017.

7. The very positive British interpretation of the significance of the visit was reflected in a glossy 88-page commemorative publication celebrating the visit (British Embassy, 2014).