Identifying the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes: a case study of Lahore, Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January–November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers’ risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.

KEYWORDS:

• Fatal road crashes
• non-fatal road crashes
• logistic regression
• discriminant analysis
• Lahore
• Pakistan

Acknowledgments

This paper is an outcome of DAAD German–Pakistan Joint Collaborative Research Project (No. 57063183) between COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Sahiwal, Pakistan and Institute of Transport Economics, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany funded by DAAD. Authors are grateful to Prof. Dr Gernot Sieg, Director, Institute of Transport Economics, University of Muenster, Germany for his generous support during the entire period of this research. Authors are also thankful to the two anonymous reviewers for their value able comments which helped to improve the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD), Germany [grant number 57063183].