Identification of factors influencing severity of motorcycle crashes in Dhaka, Bangladesh using binary logistic regression model

Abstract

Dhaka, the capital and megacity of the developing country Bangladesh, has experienced a sharp rise in motorcycle users in the last decade, especially after the introduction of ridesharing services. Therefore, the morbidity and mortality rates of motorcycle crash injuries have also increased and become one of the major safety concerns. However, there is scant empirical evidence on motorcycle crash severity in the context of developing countries. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the factors that influenced the severity of motorcycle crashes in Dhaka. A binary logistic regression model was developed using motorcycle crash data of Dhaka over the period of 2006–2015 to identify the contributing factors of motorcycle crash severity. The model output showed that eleven factors significantly increased the probability of fatal motorcycle crashes. These factors were crashes occurring on weekends, during the rainy season, during dawn and night period, at non-intersections, on straight and flat roads, on highways, hit pedestrian type crashes, crashes involving motorcycles with no defect, crashes with heavier vehicles, crashes involving motorcyclists not wearing helmets, and drivers with alcohol suspicion. These findings would help to formulate prevention strategies to reduce the injury severity of motorcycle crashes in the developing countries.

Keywords:

• Motorcycle crash
• crash severity
• binary logistic regression
• road safety
• Dhaka

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to thank Madiha Chowdhury (URP'15, BUET) for proofreading the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).