Understanding key contributing factors on the severity of traffic violations by elderly drivers: a hybrid approach of latent class analysis and XGBoost based SHAP

Abstract

Traffic violation is one of the leading causes of traffic crashes. In the context of global aging, it is important to study traffic violations by elderly drivers for improving traffic safety in preparation for a worldwide aging population. In this study, a hybrid approach of Latent Class Analysis (LCA) and XGBoost based SHAP is proposed to identify hidden clusters and to understand the key contributing factors on the severity of traffic violations by elderly drivers, based on the police-reported traffic violation dataset of Beijing (China). First, LCA is applied to segment the dataset into several latent homogeneous clusters, then XGBoost based SHAP is established on each cluster to identify feature contributions and the interaction effects of the key contributing factors on the severity of traffic violations by elderly drivers. Two comparison groups were set up to analyze factors, which are responsible for the different severities of traffic violations. The results show that elderly drivers can be classified into four groups by age, urban or not, license, and season; factors such as less annual number of traffic violations, national & provincial highway, night and winter are key contributing factors for higher severity of traffic violations, which are consistent with common cognition; key contributing factors for all clusters are similar but not identical, for example, more annual number of traffic violations contribute to more severe violation for all clusters except for Cluster 2; some factors which are not key contributing factors may affect the severity of traffic violations when they are combined with other factors, for example, the combination of lower annual number of traffic violations and county & township highway contributes to more severe violation for Cluster 1. These findings can help government to formulate targeted countermeasures to decrease the severity of traffic violations by specific elderly groups and improve road service for the driving population.

Keywords:

• Severity of traffic violations
• elderly drivers
• unobserved heterogeneity
• latent class analysis
• XGBoost based SHAP

Acknowledgments

We thank Katrina Wang from University College London for editing the initial drafts of this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Beijing Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 9232001, L201007, 9234025), MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Liberal arts and Social Sciences Foundation (Grant No. 18YJC630158).