Meta-Analytic Examination of the Base-Rate Fallacy

ABSTRACT

This paper is a meta-analytic review of the base-rate fallacy in persuasion research. The base-rate fallacy argues that individuals provided a set of statistical conclusions are unable to successfully utilize the statistical information when encountering contrary examples in a message. The meta-analysis provides empirical support for that claim. Results are discussed in the context of base-rate information versus an individuating narrative example. The potential consequences of these judgmental heuristics are applied to the assumptions and claims of the message sidedness/resistance to counterpersuasion literature.

Keywords:

• Base Rate Fallacy
• Evidence
• Persuasion
• Meta-analysis
• Attitude Change

Notes

∗A negative correlation indicates that the evaluation was away from the base-rate provided and in favor of the counterexample in the message.

∗indicates study contributing data used in the analysis

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mike Allen

Mike Allen (PhD, Michigan State University) is professor in the Department of Communication at UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA.

Raymond W. Preiss

Raymond W. Preiss (PhD, University of Oregon) is professor in the Department of Speech Communication at University of Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA.

Barbara Mae Gayle

Barbara Mae Gayle (PhD, University of Oregon) is Vice President for Academic Affairs, St. Martin's College, Lacey, WA.