Effect of foreign military intervention and controlled territory on the operational tempo of al-Shabaab attacks

Abstract

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (commonly referred to as al-Shabaab) is the largest radical Islamist organization in Somalia and one of the oldest Islamist militant groups operating in Africa. This article analyzes the effects of foreign military intervention and the ability of the group to control territory on the operational tempo of al-Shabaab’s terrorist campaign. We examine the monthly distribution of attacks for 1050 successful attacks that occurred between December 2007 and December 2014 to assess fluctuation in operational tempo. A multivariate model is specified to estimate the impact of prior operational tempo, external military intervention, and the group’s ability to control territory within Somalia on variation in current operational tempo. Precipitation is included in the model as a variable to control for the effect of the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa, which potentially reduces the group’s operational tempo by limiting its mobility. Focusing on the patterns associated with individual attacks over time and their relationship to internal and external influences provides insights into the role that prior operational tempo, controlled territory, and foreign military intervention play in facilitating or constraining the operational dynamics of the al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which may be replicated by groups operating elsewhere that combine insurgency with terrorism.

Keywords:

• Al-Shabaab
• terrorism
• foreign military intervention
• controlled territory
• operational tempo

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Defense Intelligence Agency, Grant # HHM402-14-1-007 (PI: Regens). The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of DIA or the US government.