Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest

Abstract

A recently published study by the present authors reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest.

Keywords:

• Prediction
• fMRI
• Impulsivity
• Anterior cingulate
• Recidivism

We thank Russ Poldrack and David Hoaglin for their constructive comments which inspired this extended analysis. We gratefully acknowledge the staff and inmates of the New Mexico Corrections Department, for without their generous cooperation this work could not have been completed.

This work was supported by the MacArthur Foundation Law & Neuroscience Project, and grants from NIMH [5R01MH070539 & 1R01MH085010; PI: KAK], NIDA [1R01DA026505 & 1R01DA026964; PI: KAK], and NBIB [2R01EB000840; PI: VDC].