Development and internal validation of a prediction model for patients with hematologic diseases of fall risk: a cohort study

ABSTRACT

Background

To develop and internally validate a prediction model for identifying patients with hematologic diseases of fall risk.

Research design and methods

This is a prospective cohort study from a prospective collection of data for 6 months. We recruited 412 patients with hematologic diseases in medical institutions and home environment of China. The outcome of the prediction model was fall or not. These variables were filtered via univariable logistic analysis, LASSO, and multivariable logistic analysis. We adopt an internal validation method of K-fold cross validation. The area under the ROC curve and the H-L test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.

Results

Five influencing factors were identified multivariable logistic regression analysis. The established model equation is as follows: the H-L goodness-of-fit test of the model p > 0.05. The area under the ROC curve of train is 0.957 (95% CI: 0.936 ~ 0.978), and the area under the ROC curve of test is 0.962 (95% CI: 0.884 ~ 1), so the model calibration and discriminant validity are good.

Conclusion

Our equation has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the fall risk of patients with hematologic diseases, and has certain positive significance for clinical assessment of their fall risk.

Trial registration number

ChiCTR2200063940

KEYWORDS:

• Prediction model
• hematologic diseases
• fall risk
• cohort study
• Blood disease
• TRIPOD

View correction statement:

Correction

Declaration of interests

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

Reviewer disclosures

Peer reviewers on this manuscript have no relevant financial or other relationships to disclose.

Author contributions

XR Huang conceptualized and designed the study, carried out the data analyses, drafted the initial manuscript, and reviewed and revised the manuscript. M Cao and CY Xu contributed to the data acquisition. M Xu critically reviewed and revised the manuscript. All authors approved the final manuscript for submission.

Ethics approval

Research ethics board approval to conduct a follow-up survey of patients, obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University Research Ethics Board. Ethical Approval Number 2021-KL-215-01.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17474086.2024.2329596

Correction Statement

This article was originally published with errors, which have now been corrected in the online version. Please see Correction (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17474086.2024.2370092)

Additional information

Funding

This paper was funded by Zhejiang Province Medical Scientific Research Fund Project [2023KY871]; Zhejiang Province Science and Technology Plan Project [2023C03165].