Water level decline at Iran's Lake Urmia: changing population dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of decreasing the water level of Lake Urmia on migration and geographical distribution of the population in the eastern coastal settlements in Northwestern Iran. Initially, we considered the migration statistics from 2006 and 2016, compiled by the National Statistics Office. Then, by using kernel density estimation in ARC GIS, we examined the geographical distribution of the population. Findings of this study show that between 2006 and 2016, about 71.85% of the migrants in the province were from the villages around the lake, which caused the complete evacuation of 53 villages and a sharp decline in population in a number of other villages. While 28.42% of it was related to the other settlements in the province. Also, the results of the density estimation function show that, from 2006 to 2018, most of these villages lost their population, and most of the people are now inhabited in the suburbs of the central cities. It has led to an imbalance in the distribution of population, facilities, etc. The decline in the water level of the lake and the resulting fine dust has played an important role in reducing employment in the agricultural sector and, ultimately, led to reduced rural-urban migration. It seems that with the intensification of the consequences of climate change in Iran and the expansion of the water crisis in the country, the migration crisis around Lake Urmia, by generating socio-economic costs, will be a major challenge for development in this region.

KEYWORDS:

• Population
• immigration
• climate change
• drought
• Lake Urmia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad (Duncan & Popp, 2017).

2 The workshop of Urmia Lake revival was formed with the objective of applying integrated solutions in the field of lake basin management and presenting several solutions under the responsibility of the Ministry of Energy and in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, and Planning and Budget Organisation of Iran together with the Department of Environment headquarters in 2013-10-17. They first of all investigated practical solutions to revival of the lake by focusing on the previous studies and views of people in relevant organisations related to Urmia Lake. Next, they presented the results to the council of ministers for final decision making. (https://www.ulrp.ir/en/).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) [grant number 97014914] and Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) [grant number s/99/874] .