Unveiling extensive and intensive disaster risks: an in-depth analysis of Asia’s vulnerability

ABSTRACT

The Asian region has significant susceptibility to the convergence of environmental hazard-related disaster risks, resulting in the recurring occurrence of intensive and impactful disasters. This study conducts a comprehensive examination of the extensive risks, characterised by high frequency and low magnitude, and intensive risks, characterised by low frequency and high magnitude, encountered by the most impacted nations in Asia, identified based on their ranking in the Global Climate Risk Index. Utilising data from the EM-DAT disaster database spanning the years 1980 to 2022, the study finds that in terms of extensive, intensive, and combined risks India stands at the top, followed by the Philippines and Bangladesh. However, in terms of casualties, Bangladesh stood at the top followed by Myanmar and India. Furthermore, the study reveals that there is an inverse relationship between income level and casualties. Overall, the study underscores the critical importance of conducting risk assessments so that robust disaster risk management strategies can effectively reduce losses.

KEYWORDS:

• Asian region
• disasters
• casualties
• extensive risks
• intensive risks

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Author contributions

Each author contributed to the study design. Faizan Shabir and Md Zulquar Nain handled the material preparation and data collection. Analysis was conducted by Md Zulquar Nain, while Faizan Shabir penned the initial manuscript, with all authors giving input on prior versions. All authors read and endorsed the final manuscript.

Notes

1 The concepts of extensive and intensive risks are discussed in detail in Section 2.

2 Although some of the selected countries, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand, have often been part of academic discussions, the regions have received limited attention.

3 The Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) is an annual ranking published by German Watch, which assesses countries based on their exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, and heatwaves, and their socio-economic impacts. The index uses data on weather events and socio-economic factors to evaluate a country’s climate risk.

4 A disaster must meet at least one of the following requirements to be recorded in the EM-DAT database:

1. Reports of at least ten fatalities.

2. At least 100 people have allegedly been impacted.

3. A state of emergency has been declared.

4. Call for international aid.

5 The Oceanic El Nino Index measures tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño episodes. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, can affect global weather and climate. El Nino episodes can alter rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric circulation in South and Southeast Asia. Droughts, heatwaves, and monsoon disruptions during El Niño events can harm agriculture, water supplies, and ecosystems.

6 ENSO refers to alternating warming (El Nino) and cooling (La Nina) of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These events exert significant global impacts on weather and climate, including altered rainfall, temperature anomalies, and atmospheric circulation irregularities. El Nino events result in warmer sea surface temperatures, which disrupt precipitation and cause climate-related changes, while La Nina events bring cooler temperatures, often resulting in increased rainfall and cooler conditions in specific regions. ENSO critically influences regional and global climate variability, with implications for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems.

7 Inadequate territorial planning in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh has manifested significant challenges and incidents, evident in instances such as Mumbai's urban congestion and slums, Chennai’s vulnerability to flooding, Kathmandu’s unplanned development, Sunkoshi Valley’s landslide susceptibility, Dhaka’s intricate urban growth dynamics, flood-prone communities in Bangladesh, and Gazipur’s loss of valuable agricultural land. Moreover, the recent July 2023 floods in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have revealed the far-reaching consequences of inadequate planning, impacting regions such as Punjab, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh. The presence of unplanned settlements along riverbanks in India further accentuates the urgency for well-executed territorial planning to effectively manage and mitigate future challenges.

8 Examples include Japan’s earthquake early warning system, the Netherlands’ flood management strategies, Bangladesh’s cyclone preparedness program, community-based disaster risk reduction in Nepal, Singapore’s Smart Nation initiative, Indonesia’s tsunami evacuation drills, Australia’s bushfire warning systems, resilient building designs in California, the Philippines’ public-private partnerships, Thailand’s flood resilience measures, India’s cyclone shelters, and Vietnam’s mangrove reforestation efforts. These innovative practices highlight the potential of adaptive strategies in bolstering regional resilience and safeguard communities.