Probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis for design criteria development of a coastal area in the city of Banda Aceh

Abstract

Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M _w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas.

Keywords:

• design criteria
• probabilistic
• seismic
• tsunami
• hazard
• site-specific response
• disaster
• mitigation

Acknowledgments

The seismic hazard analysis of Banda Aceh city was conducted at Center for Disaster Mitigation-Institut Teknologi Bandung which is partially sponsored by Indonesian Ministry of Research and Technology and Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency of NAD-Nias. The support is highly appreciated. The authors thankful to Mr Hendarto, Mr P. Sumiartha, Mr Haris Sunendar, Dr Danny H. Natawidjaja, Dr Wahyu Triyoso, and Mr Engkon Kertapati who has provided contribution and assisting in conducting some of the hazard analysis.