P G Tait's statistical models

Abstract

This paper explains how the discovery of a pocket notebook brings to light P G Tait's surprising involvement in statistics. Tait (1831–1901) was Professor of Mathematics at the Queen's College, Belfast and later of Natural Philosophy at the University of Edinburgh. He was a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and a former Fellow of Peterhouse, Cambridge (senior wrangler and first Smith's prizeman in 1852).

Notes

² Pre-1967, midwifery at St Andrews was taught on the Dundee site. In 1897 University College, Dundee (founded in 1881) became a constituent college of the University of St Andrews. In 1954 University College was renamed Queen's College; and in 1967 it gained independence from St Andrews and was renamed the University of Dundee.

³ The lectures were reproduced in the British Medical Journal in March 1883.

⁴ Uncited sources of biographical information on Duncan: Royal Society of Edinburgh (2006), BMJ (1890).

⁵ The coefficient of determination (the statistic) is 0.9944, meaning that 99 of the total variation in fecundity is explained by age. R produces the following linear regression model: (3 s.f.). Tait has . Tait's values for the -intercept and slope fall within the 95 confidence interval R generates for the parameters, that is, a range of values for and such that 95 of the data is explained by the model .

⁶ Tait uses for both the current age of a woman and her age at marriage. To avoid confusion, I have chosen to use to denote age at marriage.