Uncertainty treatment in earthquake modelling using Bayesian probabilistic networks

Abstract

A probabilistic description of potential ground motion intensity is computed using a Bayesian probabilistic network (BPN) representing the standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Two earthquake ground motion intensity parameters are used: response spectral values for structural failures and peak ground acceleration for geotechnical failures. The correlation of these parameters is also considered within a BPN. It is further shown how deaggregation of the seismic hazard could be easily performed using BPNs. A systematic consideration of uncertainty in the values of the parameters of a particular seismic hazard model can be described by PSHA. But the correct choices for elements of the seismic hazard model are uncertain. Logic trees provide a convenient framework for the treatment of model uncertainty. The paper illustrates an alternative way of incorporating the model uncertainty by extending the developed BPN. Incorporation of time-dependent seismic hazard using a BPN is also illustrated. Finally, the uncertainty treatment in earthquake modelling using BPNs is illustrated on the region Adapazari, which is located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey.

Keywords:

• PSHA
• ground motion intensity parameter correlation
• time-dependent seismic hazard

Acknowledgements

The support provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation for the research project ‘Management of Earthquake Risks using Condition Indicators’ (MERCI, 2008) is greatly acknowledged.