Earthquake disaster risk index for Canadian cities using Bayesian belief networks

Abstract

Devastation observed from global earthquakes highlights the need for a decision-making tool to aid in prioritisation and resource allocation for seismic risk management. In this paper, a seismic risk index assessment tool is developed using Bayesian belief network (BBN) that considers geological, engineering, economic, social, political and cultural factors. Previously proposed hierarchical structure is modified and modelled using a BBN. The subjective probabilities of the BBN are derived using expert knowledge. Furthermore, to illustrate versatility of the proposed model, a case study is undertaken for 11 Canadian cities.

Keywords:

• risk assessment
• decision-making
• infrastructures
• Bayesian belief network
• seismic risk index
• uncertainty