Prediction reliability, quantitative differences and spatial variations of erosion models for long-range petroleum and gas infrastructure

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to assess the prediction reliability, the quantitative differences and the spatial variations of the Morgan––Morgan–Finney (MMF) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion prediction models along the 442-km-long and 44-m-wide Right-of-Way of Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil and South Caucasus gas pipelines. USLE performed better than MMF erosion model by the accurate prediction of 61% of erosion occurrences. Paired-samples T-test with p-value less than 0.05 and bivariate correlation with the Pearson's correlation coefficient equal to 0.23 showed that the predictions of these two models were significantly different. MMF model revealed more clustered patterns of predicted critical erosion classes with a soil loss of more than 10 ton/ha/year in particular ranges of pipelines rather than USLE model with the widespread spatial distribution. The average coefficients of variation of predicted soil loss rates by these models and the number of accurately predicted erosion occurrences within the geomorphometric elements of terrain, vegetation cover and landuse categories were larger in the USLE model. This supported the hypothesis that larger spatial variations of erosion prediction models can contribute to the better soil loss prediction performance and reliability of erosion prediction models.

Keywords:

• MMF
• USLE
• rights-of-way
• BTC
• SCP
• soil loss