A risk-based approach for crowd evacuation performance evaluation under metro fire

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the crowd evacuation performance in a metro fire by using the limit state equation to describe the egress process. The limit state equation is established by the available time margin in fire evacuation, which comprises the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to an exit. Here, the available time margin in a fire evacuation is determined by the duration of time the smoke takes to exceed the evacuee's respiration level, the time that the smoke is detected by fire alarm and the time that the evacuee needs to respond and move to an exit during evacuation. Further, Monte Carlo simulation approach has been employed to integrate the fatality rates and the probabilities of occurrence of different scenarios in a typical metro in Xiaobailou station of station-Tianjin Line 1. Through this case study, it is shown that the evacuee's response time, behaviour time and movement time to exits can be integrated in a stochastic process model.

Keywords:

• probabilistic risk analysis
• crowd evacuation
• metro fire
• movement time
• Monte Carlo simulation
• limit state equation

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for the youth [grant number 51204188], [grant number 41105099]; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province [grant number B20132022272].