1,312
Views
5
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Coinfection dynamics of heroin transmission and HIV infection in a single population

, &
Pages 116-142 | Received 12 Jun 2019, Accepted 10 Jan 2020, Published online: 17 Feb 2020

Abstract

We propose a model of a joint spread of heroin use and HIV infection. The unique disease-free equilibrium always exists and it is stable if the basic reproduction numbers of heroin use and HIV infection are both less than 1. The semi-trivial equilibrium of HIV infection (heroin use) exists if the basic reproduction number of HIV infection (heroin use) is larger than 1 and it is locally stable if and only if the invasion number of heroin use (HIV infection) is less than 1. When both semi-trivial equilibria lose their stability, a coexistence equilibrium occurs, which may not be unique. We compare the model to US data on heroin use and HIV transmission. We conclude that the two diseases in the US are in a coexistence regime. Elasticities of the invasion numbers suggest two foci for control measures: targeting the drug abuse epidemic and reducing HIV risk in drug-users.

1. Introduction

Heroin users are at high risk for addiction and it is estimated that about 23% of individuals who use heroin become dependent on it. The study of modeling heroin addiction and spread in [Citation6] shows that classical epidemic models can be used for modeling drug addiction and informing control policies. Since then the mathematical models have been widely used for modelling heroin abuse and transmission [Citation4,Citation7,Citation8,Citation13]. The opioid epidemic has been drawing much interest lately because of rapidly increasing number of users and deaths. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can be transmitted sexually or through sharing of contaminated needles or syringes. HIV infection associated with injection drug use (IDU) and needle sharing has been on the rise in many countries, while injection of heroin drugs has become increasingly common among drug users. Thus the study of the coinfection of heroin and HIV transmission in a single population has very significant impact in epidemiology.

Coinfection epidemic models with multiple specific diseases, such as HIV/TB [Citation19,Citation21], HIV/gonorrhea [Citation18], HIV/malaria [Citation1,Citation2], malaria and meningitis [Citation14], or general diseases [Citation3,Citation12] show that disease co-circulation has major consequences for between host disease dynamics. Since coinfection leads to more complex dynamics in two disease epidemic models, one expects the presence of coexistence equilibria whose explicit expressions are difficult to obtain. Blyuss and Kyrychko [Citation3] studied a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) coinfection two-disease model, but an expression for the endemic steady-state with both diseases in the case of coinfection was not obtained analytically and only some numerical simulations of this steady-state were presented. Gao et al. studied a coinfection SIS epidemic model with bilinear incidence, and obtained through simulations richer dynamic behavior such as backward bifurcations and Hopf bifurcation [Citation9].

Using invasion reproduction numbers (see [Citation20]), Iannelli et al.) [Citation11] strictly proved the existence and local stability of a coexistence equilibrium in an epidemic model with super-infection and perfect vaccination. After that, using the invasion reproduction numbers, Martcheva and Pilyugin [Citation16] proved that there are two coexistence equilibria in a coinfection epidemic model of two diseases with time-since-infection structure. For more information about the invasion reproduction numbers, one can refer to [Citation15–17] and references therein.

To account for the coinfection and co-transmission of heroin and HIV spreading through a single population, in this paper, we propose a new mathematical model with heroin & HIV coinfection. We use standard incidence terms to model the new cases in both diseases. In what follows, we divide the population into five classes, namely the number of susceptibles, S(t), the number of heroin drug users, U(t), the number of HIV-infected individuals, V(t), the number of coinfected (heroin/HIV) individuals, I(t), and the number of individuals with AIDS, A(t). We assume that individuals with AIDS are isolated and that the total number of the population is N = S + U + V + I. The effective contact rate between the individuals with heroin addiction and the susceptibles is C1 and the transmissibility of heroin drug use per effective contact is assumed to be βU. Meanwhile, the effective contact rate between the HIV infected individuals and the susceptibles is C2 and the infectivity of HIV infected individuals per effective contact is assumed to be βV. Then we have the following force of infections λU(t), λV(t) of heroin and HIV spread in a single population, (1) λU(t)=βUC1U(t)+I(t)N(t):=β1U(t)+I(t)N(t),λV(t)=βVC2V(t)+I(t)N(t):=β2V(t)+I(t)N(t),(1) With the above notation of the force of infection, the model takes the form: (2) dS(t)dt=ΛμS(t)+δU(t)λU(t)S(t)λV(t)S(t),dU(t)dt=λU(t)S(t)qλV(t)U(t)(μ+dU+δ)U(t),dV(t)dt=λV(t)S(t)λU(t)V(t)(μ+dV+γ1)V(t)+σδI(t),dI(t)dt=qλV(t)U(t)+λU(t)V(t)(μ+dI+γ2)I(t)σδI(t),dA(t)dt=γ1V(t)+γ2I(t)(μ+dA)A(t),(2) with the initial conditions: (3) S(0)=S0,U(0)=U0, V(0)=V0, I(0)=I0, A(0)=A0.(3) In system (Equation2), the parameter Λ is the recruitment rate, μ is the natural death rate, δ is the recovery rate of heroin users, γ1 and γ2 are the transition rates from HIV infection and coinfection to AIDS, respectively (γ2γ1), dU is the death rate induced by heroin addiction, dV is the death rate induced by HIV infection, dI is the death rate induced by coinfection with dIdV, dA is the death rate induced by AIDS. The term qλV denotes that the force of infection of a heroin user infected by HIV. The term σδI denotes the recovery rate of an individual from coinfection to HIV infection only. Moreover, we assume that at most one disease can be transmitted per contact with a coinfected individual.

To the best of our knowledge, there are no relevant research results on coinfection of heroin abuse and HIV infection. In this paper we employ operator theory and fixed point theorem to derive the existence of a coexistence equilibrium, which can overcome the difficulties created by the direct algebraic computations. The method of this paper can be extended to study the coinfection epidemic models with saturating incidences. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, some preliminary results of system (Equation2) are presented, including the basic reproduction numbers, and the existence of equilibria. In Section 3, the local stability results of the disease-free equilibrium, the semi-trivial equilibrium of heroin transmission and the semi-trivial equilibrium of HIV infection are strictly proved, by use of the basic reproduction numbers and the invasion reproduction numbers. The existence of a coexistence equilibrium of heroin and HIV is obtained in Section 4. In Section 5 some numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate and extend the theoretical results. In Section 6 we summarize our conclusions.

2. Preliminary results

Since the first four equations are independent of the last equation of system (Equation2), we need to only consider the following system (4) dS(t)dt=ΛμS(t)+δU(t)λU(t)S(t)λV(t)S(t),dU(t)dt=λU(t)S(t)qλV(t)U(t)(μ+dU+δ)U(t),dV(t)dt=λV(t)S(t)λU(t)V(t)(μ+dV+γ1)V(t)+σδI(t),dI(t)dt=qλV(t)U(t)+λU(t)V(t)(μ+dI+γ2)I(t)σδI(t),(4) (5) S(0)=S0,U(0)=U0, V(0)=V0, I(0)=I0.(5) We assume that the population N(t)=S(t)+U(t)+V(t)+I(t) satisfies the following equation (6) dN(t)dt=ΛμN(t)dUU(t)(dV+γ1)V(t)(dI+γ2)I(t).(6) From here on, we will consider system (Equation4)–(Equation5) and study its dynamics. Define the set D:=(S,U,V,I)X: S+U+V+IΛμ. Define the solution semiflow Ψ: X+X+ of system (Equation4)–(Equation5) by Ψ(t)ψ=(S(t),U(t),V(t),I(t)), t0, where ψ=(S0,U0,V0,I0)X+ and X+=R+4. Then D is positively invariant for Ψ(t) in the sense that Ψ(t)ψD, t0,ψD.

Lemma 2.1

For any given initial values in D, system (Equation2)–(Equation3) has a unique solution for t[0,) and the solutions to (Equation2)–(Equation3) remain non-negative on their interval of existence.

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen is defined as the expected number of secondary cases that one infectious individual can produce in a fully susceptible population during his/her whole infectious period. The basic reproduction numbers RU, RV, corresponding to heroin use and HIV, are given by (7) RU=β1dU+μ+δandRV=β2dV+μ+γ1,(7) respectively. For more information on the basic reproduction number, one can refer to [Citation4,Citation5].

Naturally, system (Equation4) has a disease-free equilibrium E0=(S0,0,0,0,) with S0=Λ/μ. In the following, we use E1=(S1,U1,0,0) to denote the semi-trivial equilibrium corresponding to heroin transmission (with HIV infection being excluded). Further, we use E2=(S2,0,V2,0) to denote the semi-trivial equilibrium corresponding to HIV transmission (with heroin transmission being excluded).

2.1. Semi-trivial (boundary) equilibria

In this subsection, we prove the existence of the two semi-trivial equilibria E1 and E2 corresponding to the heroin transmission and HIV spread in a single population respectively. To obtain the equilibrium E1 we let N1 be the equilibrium value of the total population N when the heroin transmission is at equilibrium value U1. From system (Equation4), we have that the equilibrium E1 satisfies (8) 0=ΛμS1+δU1β1U1N1S1,0=β1U1N1S1(μ+dU+δ)U1,0=ΛμN1dUU1.(8) From the second equation of (Equation8), we have (9) S1=N1RU.(9) Substituting (Equation9) into the first equation of (Equation8), we can obtain (10) U1=ΛdU+μ1S1/Λμ.(10) Substituting (Equation9) and (Equation10) into the third equation of (Equation8), we have (11) N1=ΛRU(dU+μ)RUdU.(11) Similarly, we denote by E2=(S2,0,V2,0) the boundary equilibrium corresponding to HIV infection (with heroin transmission being excluded). To obtain equilibrium E2 we let N2 be the equilibrium value of the total population N when the HIV infection in population is at equilibrium value V2. From system (Equation4), we have that the equilibrium E2 satisfies (12) 0=ΛμS2β2V2N2S2,0=β2V2N2S2(μ+dV+γ1)V2,0=ΛμN2(dV+γ1)V2.(12) Following similar steps as for E1, we obtain the expression for the semi-trivial equilibrium of HIV (13) S2=N2RV,V2=Λμ+dV+γ11S2/Λμ,N2=ΛRV(dV+μ+γ1)RV(dV+γ1).(13) Notice that the values of the two boundary equilibria do not depend on the coinfection class.

To show the positivity of U1 and V2, from (Equation9)–(Equation11) and (Equation13), we have U1=Λμ+dU11RˆUandV2=Λμ+dV+γ111RˆV, where RˆU=Λ/μN1RUandRˆV=Λ/μN2RV. It is clear that U1>0 provided that RˆU>1 and V2>0 provided that RˆV>1. Meanwhile, by simple calculations, we have (14) RˆU1=(RU1)1+dUμandRˆV1=(RV1)1+dVμ+γ1.(14) It follows that RˆU1 and RU1, RˆV1 and RV1 respectively have the same sign. Then, RˆU and RˆV in (Equation14) are called as the modified reproduction numbers of heroin transmission and HIV spread in a single population respectively.

Summarizing the above discussions, we have the following result.

Theorem 2.1

System (Equation4) always has a unique disease-free equilibrium E0, besides that it has a unique boundary equilibrium E1 of heroin spread if the basic reproduction number RU>1 and a unique boundary equilibrium E2 of HIV transmission if the basic reproduction number RV>1.

Furthermore, the stability of the boundary equilibria and the presence of a coexistence equilibrium depend on two other reproduction numbers, namely the invasion reproduction numbers.

3. Stability analysis of equilibria

In this section, we will prove the stability of the boundary equilibria of system (Equation4) which involves the above basic reproduction numbers, RU and RV.

Theorem 3.1

The unique disease-free equilibrium E0 is locally stable, if max{RU,RV}<1.

Proof.

By linearizing system (Equation4) at the disease-free equilibrium E0, we have the characteristic equation det(Δ(λ))=0, i.e.

(15) λ+μδ+β1β2β1+β20λβ1+μ+dU+δ0β100λβ2+μ+dV+γ1β2σδ000λ+(μ+dI+γ2+σδ)=0.(15) Obviously, we have that the roots of Equation (Equation15) are λ1=μ, λ2=(μ+dU+δ)(RU1), λ3=(μ+dV+γ1)(RV1), λ4=(μ+dI+γ2+σδ). All roots of this equation are negative constants only if max{RU,RV}<1. Therefore, the unique disease-free equilibrium E0 is locally stable, if max{RU,RV}<1.

From Theorem 2.1, we know that there exists a unique boundary equilibrium E1 of heroin abuse if RU>1. The local stability of the boundary equilibrium E1 is given in the following theorem.

Theorem 3.2

The unique boundary equilibrium E1 is locally stable if Rvi1<1, and it is unstable if Rvi1>1.

Proof.

Note that N1=S1+U1. By linearizing system (Equation4) at the boundary equilibrium E1, we have the Jacobin matrix (16) J(E1)=AC0B(16) with A=Λ+δU1S1+A1β1S1N1+δ+A1A1+β1U1N1A1,C=β2S1N1(β1+β2)S1N1+A1A1qβ2U1N1A1+β1S1N1qβ2U1N1,B=β2S1N1Q1β2S1N1+σδ(qβ2+β1)U1N1qβ2U1N1Q2, where A1=β1U1S1(N1)2,Q1=β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1,Q2=μ+dI+γ2+σδ. Obviously, Tr(A)=(Λ+δU1)/S1<0. det(A)=A1Λ+δU1S1A1A1+β1U1N1A1β1S1N1+δ=A1Λ+δU1S1+A1(δβ1)β1U1N1δ+(β1)2S1U1(N1)2=A1Λ+δU1S1+A1δβ1U1N1δ=A1Λ+δU1S1+β1U1N1δS1N11=β1U1(N1)2Λ+δU1δU1=β1U1Λ(N1)2>0. Thus, A has eigenvalues with negative real parts.

Stability of B needs Tr(B)<0 and det(B)>0. Note that det(B)=β2S1N1Q1qβ2U1N1Q2(qβ2+β1)U1N1β2S1N1+σδ. By simplifying, we have det(B)=Q1Q2β2S1N1β1U1N1+Q2qβ2U1N1Q1+σδβ1U1N1σδ. Define (17) Rvi1=β2S1N1β1U1N1+μ+dI+γ2+σδ+qβ2U1N1β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1+σδ(μ+dI+γ2+σδ)β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1β1U1N1σδ.(17) We call Rvi2 the invasion reproduction number of HIV infection. Assume Rvi1<1. Then det(B)>0 and we need to show Tr(B)<0. Indeed, because det(B)>0, we have β2(S1/N1)Q1 and qβ2(U1/N1)Q2 have the same sign. Note that qβ2U1N1Q2=qβ2U1N1Q1Q1Q2Rvi<1. We have qβ2(U1/N1)Q2<0 and thus β2(S1/N1)Q1<0. Therefore Tr(B)<0 and we have that E1 is locally asymptotically stable. If Rvi>1, we have det(B)<0 and therefore E1 is unstable. This completes the proof of stability of E1.

From Theorem 2.1, we know that there exists a unique boundary equilibrium E2 of HIV infection if RV>1. In the following, we prove the local stability of the boundary equilibrium E2.

Theorem 3.3

The unique boundary equilibrium E2 is locally stable if Rui2<1, and it is unstable if Rui2>1.

Proof.

Note that N2=S2+U2. By linearizing system (Equation4) at the boundary equilibrium E2, we have the Jacobin matrix (18) J(E2)=A~C~0B~(18) with A~=ΛS2+A2β2S2N2+A2A2+β2V2N2A2,C~=δ+A2β1S2N2(β1+β2)S2N2+A2A2+β1V2N2β2S2N2β1V2N2+σδ,B~=β1S2N2Q3β1S2N2(qβ2+β1)V2N2β1V2N2Q2, where A2=β2V2S2(N2)2,Q3=qβ2V2N2+μ+dU+δ. Clearly, Tr(A~)=(Λ)/S2<0. det(A~)=A2ΛS2+A2A2+β2V2N2β2S2N2+A2=A2ΛS1>0. Thus, the eigenvalues of A~ have negative real parts.

Considering B~, we need Tr(B~)<0 and det(B~)>0. By simplifying, we have det(B~)=β1S2N2Q3β1V2N2Q2(qβ2+β1)V2N2β1S2N2=Q2Q3β1S2N2Q2β1V2N2Q3qβ2β1S2V2(N2)2. Define (19) Rui2=β1S2N2qβ2V2N2+μ+dI+γ2+σδ+β1V2N2qβ2V2N2+μ+dU+δqβ2V2N2+μ+dU+δ(μ+dI+γ2+σδ).(19) We call Rui2 the invasion reproduction number of heroin abuse. Assume Rui2<1. Then we have det(B~)>0, which implies that β1(S2/N2)Q3 and β1(V2/N2)Q2 have the same sign. Since β1S2N2Q3Rui<1. we have β1(S2/N2)Q3<0 and then β1(V2/N2)Q2<0. Therefore, we have Tr(B~)<0. Hence, E2 is locally asymptotically stable. If Rui>1, we have det(B~)<0 and therefore E2 is unstable.

Theorems 3.2–3.3 tell us that the local stabilities of the two boundary equilibria E2 and E1 are determined by the invasion reproduction numbers Rui2, Rvi1 respectively. These results show that the presence of coinfection does not eliminate the conditions for the competitive exclusion.

4. Coexistence equilibrium of heroin abuse and HIV infection

4.1. Existence of the coexistence equilibrium

To study the coexistence equilibrium E=(S,U,V,I), we set the right hand side of system (Equation4) to zero: (20) 0=ΛμS+δUλ1Sλ2S,0=λ1Sqλ2U(μ+dU+δ)U,0=λ2Sλ1V(μ+dV+γ1)V+σδI,0=qλ2U+λ1V(μ+dI+γ2)IσδI.(20) with (21) λ1=β1U+IN,λ2=β2V+IN,(21) where (22) N=S+U+V+I.(22) To simplify, we let (23) μu=μ+dU+δ,μv=μ+dV+γ1,μi=μ+dI+γ2andλ=λ1+λ2.(23) By some direct calculations, from (Equation20), we have (24) S=Λ+δUλ+μ,U=λ1Sqλ2+μu,V=1λ1+μv(λ2S+σδI),I=1μi+σδ(qλ2U+λ1V).(24) It follows from the first two expressions of (Equation24) that (25) S=Λ(qλ2+μu)(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ,(25) and (26) U=λ1Λ(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ.(26) Substituting the fourth expression of (Equation24) into the third of (Equation24), we have (27) V=(μi+σδ)S+σδqUμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvλ2=(μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)+σδqλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvλ2Λ(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ.(27) Substituting the third expression of (Equation24) into the fourth of (Equation24), we have (28) I=(λ1+μv)qU+λ1Sμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvλ2=(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv)qμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvλ1λ2Λ(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ.(28) Now, from (Equation22) we obtain the total population N. Particularly, if λ2=0 and λ=λ1=λ1, i.e. I=0, V=0, S=S1 and U=U1, there exists an equilibrium E1=(λ1,0) corresponding to the boundary equilibrium E1. Moreover, we have (29) N1=N(λ1)=λ1+μuμuΛμuμu(λ1+μ)λ1δ.(29) If λ1=0 and λ=λ2=λ2, i.e.I=0, U=0 S=S2 and V=V2, there exists a equilibrium E2=(0,λ2) corresponding to the boundary equilibrium E2. Moreover, we have (30) N2=N(λ2)=λ2+μvμvΛλ2+μ.(30) Next, we want to prove that there exist λ1>0, λ2>0 such that λ=λ1+λ2, i.e. there exists a positive equilibrium E=(λ1,λ2) corresponding to the coexistence equilibrium E.

Substituting (Equation25), (Equation26), (Equation28) and (Equation27) into the first expression of (Equation21), we have (31) λ1N=β1(U+I)=λ1β1Λ(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ1+q(λ+μv)+μuλ1μi+(σδ+μi)μvλ2:=λ1H1(λ).(31) Substituting (Equation28) and (Equation27) into the second expression of (Equation21), we have (32) λ2N=β2(V+I)=λ2β2Λ(λ1+μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1[μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv][(λ+μ)(qλ2+μu)λ1δ]:=λ2H2(λ).(32) Noting N(λ1)=H1(λ1) and N(λ2)=H2(λ2), we have (33) β1=λ1+μuandβ2=λ2+μv.(33) It follows from (Equation13) and (Equation33) that (34) S2N2=1RV=μvβ2,V2N2=11RV=1μvβ2=λ2β2.(34) It then follows from (Equation19) and (Equation34) that (35) Rui2=β1S2N2qβ2V2N2+μ+dI+γ2+σδ+β1V2N2qβ2V2N2+μ+dU+δqβ2V2N2+μ+dU+δ(μ+dI+γ2+σδ)=β1μvβ2qλ2+μi+σδ+β1λ2β2qλ2+μuqλ2+μu(μi+σδ)=β1(qλ2+σδ+μi)μv+λ2(qλ2+μu)β2(σδ+μi)(qλ2+μu).(35) Similarly, from (Equation9) and (Equation33), we have (36) S1N1=1RU=μuβ1,U1N1=11RU=1μuβ1=λ1β1.(36) It then follows from (Equation17) and (Equation36) that (37) Rvi1=β2S1N1β1U1N1+μ+dI+γ2+σδ+qβ2U1N1β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1+σδ(μ+dI+γ2+σδ)β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1β1U1N1σδ=β2S1N1β1U1N1+μ+dI+γ2+σδ+qβ2U1N1β1U1N1+μ+dV+γ1+σδ(μ+dI+γ2)β1U1N1+(μ+dI+γ2+σδ)(μ+dV+γ1)=β2μuβ1(λ1+μi+σδ)+(λ1+μv+σδ)qβ2λ1β1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=β2β1(λ1+μi+σδ)μu+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv.(37) From (Equation25)–(Equation28) and (Equation31) we have λ1=β1λ11+q(λ+μv)+μuλ1μi+(σδ+μi)μvλ2qλ2+μu+λ1+λ2(μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)+σδqλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv+λ1λ2(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv)qμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=β1λ11+(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv)qμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvλ2λ11+λ2(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv)qμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv+qλ2+μu+λ2(μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)+σδqλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv. Let g5(λ1)=μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv,g3(λ2)=λ2(qλ2+μu),g1(λ1)=λ1g5(λ1),g4(λ2)=qλ2+μu,g2(λ1)=λ1q(λ1+μv),g6(λ2)=(σδ+μi)g3(λ2). By some simple calculations, we have λ1=β1A11A11+A12:=H1(λ1,λ2), where A11=g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2),A12=g4(λ2)g5(λ1)+g6(λ2)+σδqλ1λ2. Let H11=A11/A12. Then we have H1(λ1,λ2)=β1A11A11+A12=β1A11A12A11A12+1=β1H11H11+1, and therefore (38) H1(λ1,λ2)λ1=β1H11λ1H11+1H11H11λ1H11+12=β1H11λ1H11+12=β11H11+121(A12)2A11λ1A12A11A12λ1.(38) To prove that H1(λ1,λ2)/λ1>0, we need to prove A11λ1A12A11A12λ1>0. (see Appendix A for more details). Furthermore, similarly, we have (39) H1(λ1,λ2)λ2=β11H11+121(A12)2A11λ2A12A11A12λ2.(39) Obviously, that H1(λ1,λ2)/λ2<0 provided that A11λ2A12A11A12λ2<0. (see Appendix A for more details).

It follows from (Equation25)–(Equation28) and (Equation32) that λ2=β2(λ1+μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)λ2+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1λ2μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvqλ2+μu+λ1+λ2(μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)+σδqλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv+λ1λ2(qλ2+μu)+(λ1+μv)qμiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=β2(λ1+μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)λ2+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1λ2μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μvqλ2+μu+λ1+(λ1+μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)λ2+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1λ2μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=β2A21A22+A21:=H2(λ1,λ2), where A21=(λ1+μi+σδ)(qλ2+μu)λ2+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1λ2,A22=(qλ2+μu+λ1)(μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv). Let H22=A21/A22. Similarly, we can prove (40) H2(λ1,λ2)λ1=β21H22+121(A22)2A21λ1A22A21A22λ1,(40) (41) H2(λ1,λ2)λ2=β21H22+121(A22)2A21λ2A22A21A22λ2(41) and H2(λ1,λ2)/λ2>0, H2(λ1,λ2)/λ1<0, respectively.

For the sake of convenience, we define a vector λ and a operator T as follows λ=λ1λ2,T=H1H2. By use of these notations, the main question of this section becomes to prove the existence of a positive fixed point of the following problem (42) λ=T(λ).(42) To this end, we will use some related operator theory and the following definition.

Definition 4.1

Definition of the order K.

For λλ|λ1λ2R2, we define a cone κ that λ1λ2κ0  λ10,  λ20. The order K is introduced by the cone κ.

By use of the definition of order K, from H1/λ1>0, H1/λ2<0 and H2/λ2>0, H2/λ1<0, we have that the operator T is continuous and monotone (by the order of K) in (λv,λu).

Let λu=λ10,  λv=0λ2. Clearly, λu>κλv.

Using the Taylor expansion, we have T(λu+x)=T(λu)+DT(λu)x+Nu(x), where Nu(x) denotes the nonlinear terms. Since T(λu)=λu, we have T(λu+x)=λu+DT(λu)x+Nu(x). Similarly, T(λv+y)=λv+DT(λv)y+Nv(y), where Nv(y) denotes the nonlinear terms.

For the linear terms DT(λu) and DT(λv), from (Equation38)–(Equation41), we have DT(λu)=H1λ1H1λ2H2λ1H2λ2λu=H1(λ1,0)λ1H1(λ1,0)λ2H2(λ1,0)λ1H2(λ1,0)λ2. By use of (Equation38), λ1=λ1, λ2=0 and the results in Appendix A, we have H1(λ1,0)λ1=μuβ1=1RUandH1(λ1,0)λ2<0. Note that A21|(λ1,0)=0 and A21/λ1|(λ1,0)=0. It follows from (Equation40) that H2(λ1,0)λ1=0. Using (Equation41), λ1=λ1, λ2=0 and some simple calculations, we have H2(λ1,0)λ2=β2(λ1+μu)(λ1+μi+σδ)μu+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=β2β1(λ1+μi+σδ)μu+(λ1+μv+σδ)qλ1μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv=Rvi1, where we have used (Equation33) and (Equation37). Similarly, we have DT(λv)=H1λ1H1λ2H2λ1H2λ2λv=H1(0,λ2)λ1H1(0,λ2)λ2H2(0,λ2)λ1H2(0,λ2)λ2=Rui20H2(0,λ2)λ11RV. Note that H2(0,λ2)/λ1<0. Then, it follows from RU>1, RV>1, Rvi1>1 and Rui2>1 that the linear parts DT(λu) and DT(λv) are positive matrices with respect to the order of K, i.e. DT(λu)x>κ0,DT(λv)x>κ0,for anyx>κ0. From Perron-Frobenius theorem, we have that the positive matrices DT(λu), DT(λv) have a positive eigenvalue and a positive (in order K) eigenvector corresponding to this eigenvalue, respectively. Let (43) xu=x1x2,yv=y1y2,(43) and (44) DT(λu)xu=ρuxu,DT(λv)yv=ρvyv.(44) Hence, we have that xu>κ0, yv>κ0. Then we have the following lemma.

Lemma 4.1

The eigenvalue ρu>1 if the invasion reproduction number Rvi1>1 and the eigenvalue ρv>1 if the invasion reproduction number Rui2>1, where ρu and ρv are eigenvalues given in (Equation44).

Proof.

It follows from (Equation43) and xu>κ0, yv>κ0 that x1>0, x2<0 and y1>0, y2<0. From (Equation44), we have ρux1x2=ρuxu=DT(λu)xu=H1λ1H1λ2H2λ1H2λ2λux1x2=1RUH1(λ1,0)λ20Rvi1x1x2. It then follows that 1RUρuH1(λ1,0)λ20Rvi1ρux1x2=0. Since x2<0, we have (45) ρu=Rvi1.(45) It follows from H1(λ1,0)/λ2<0, x2<0 and x1>0 that 1/RUρu<0 which agrees with the fact that RU>1 and ρu=Rvi1>1. Similarly, we have Rui2ρv0H2(0,λ2)λ11RVρvy1y2=0, and therefore (46) ρv=Rui2.(46) This completes the proof of Lemma 4.1.

Since that λv<κλu, for the eigenvectors xu, yv in (Equation43), there exist two constants ξ>0, η>0 small enough such that (47) λv+ηyvκλuξxu.(47) In fact, from ηy1λ2+ηy2=λv+ηyvκλuξxu=λ1ξx1ξx2, we have that for small enough ξ>0, η>0, (48) λ1ξx1ηy10,ξx2λ2ηy20.(48) Obviously, (Equation48) can be satisfied with suitable ξ>0 and η>0.

Note that T(λv+ηyv)=T(λv)+ηDT(λv)yv+η2Nv(yv)=λv+ηρvyu+η2Nv(yv)=λv+ηyv+η(ρv1)yv+η2Nv(yv). For small enough η>0 and ρv>1, we have (ρv1)yv+ηNv(yv)κ0. Thus, we have (49) T(λv+ηyv)κλv+ηyv.(49) Similarly, from small enough ξ>0 and ρu>1, we have (50) T(λuξxu)κλuξxu.(50) We recall that the operator T is monotone in the order of K. Applying T repeatedly to (Equation49) & (Equation50), we have Tn(λv+ηyv)κTn1(λv+ηyv)κκT(λv+ηyv)κλv+ηyv and Tn(λuξxu)κTn1(λuξxu)κκT(λuξxu)κλuξxu, respectively. Applying T to (Equation47), we have T(λv+ηyv)κT(λuξxu)andTn(λv+ηyv)κTn(λuξxu). It then follows for n=1,2, that λv<κλv+ηyvκTn(λv+ηyv)κκTn(λuξxu)κλuξxu<κλu. Thus, the sequence {Tn(λv+ηyv)}n=0 is an increasing convergent sequence and {Tn(λuξxu)}n=0 is a decreasing convergent sequence. All the elements in both sequences {Tn(λv+ηyv)}n=0 and {Tn(λuξxu)}n=0 form a partially ordered set TD bounded above by λu and below by λv.

We have that T has a fixed point λ=(λ1,λ2)T with λ1>0, λ2>0, i.e. T(λ)=λ. Summarizing the above discussion, we have the following results.

Theorem 4.1

Assume that RU>1 and RV>1, then there exists a coexistence equilibrium E of system (Equation4) if Rui2>1 and Rvi1>1.

Remark 4.1

If there is no coinfection, then we have that the invasion reproduction numbers Rvi1 and Rui2 cannot be larger that 1 at the same time, and there is no coexistence equilibrium. In a word, the coinfection is the crucial factor which results into the coexistence equilibrium.

4.2. The impact of heroin transmission on HIV infection in a single population

To analyze the effects of heroin transmission on the spread of HIV infection in a single population, we express the invasion reproduction number Rvi1 in the terms of Rui2. From (Equation19) and (Equation17), we have (51) Rui2=C1+C2σδC3+C4σδ(51) and (52) Rvi1=D1+D2σδD3+D4σδ,(52) where C1=β1(RV1)qβ2+μ+dU+δ+β1(μ+dI+γ2),C2=β1,C3=C4(μ+dI+γ2),C4=qβ2(RV1)+β2 and D1=β2[(RU1)(μ+dU+δ)(1+q(RU1))+μ+dI+γ2+q(RU1)(μ+dV+γ1)],D2=β2(1+q(RU1)),D3=β1(RU1)(μ+dI+γ2)+D4(μ+dI+γ2),D4=RU(μ+dV+γ1). Obviously, Ci>0 and Di>0 for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, if RU>1 and RV>1.

It follows from (Equation51) that (53) σδ=C3Rui2C1C2C4Rui2.(53) Substituting (Equation53) into (Equation52), by some simple calculations, we have Rvi1=E1+E2Rui2E3+E4Rui2 where E1=C2D1C1D2,E2=C3D2C4D1,E3=C2D3C1D4,E4=C3D4C4D3. Computing the partial derivative of Rvi1 with respect to Rui2, we have Rvi1Rui2=E2E3E1E4(E3+E4Rui2)2. By the above expression and some calculations, we have E2E3E1E4=(C2C3C1C4)(D2D3D1D4). By some direct calculations, we have C2C3C1C4=C4β1(RV1)qβ2+μ+dU+δ<0, and D2D3D1D4=β2(RU1)[β1(1+q(RU1))+qD4][(μ+dI+γ2)(μ+dV+γ1)]. Assumption (H): Assume dI+γ2>dV+γ1. Under Assumption (H), we have that D2D3D1D40. Then, we obtain that E2E3E1E40 which implies that a decrease in the invasion reproduction number Rui2 results into an increase of the invasion reproduction number Rvi1. Similarly, we can have that Rui2/Rvi10. These results show that competitive exclusion occurs in our coinfection epidemic system, in realistic and generic situations, although the coinfection can lead to the two diseases coexistence.

5. Numerical simulations

In this section we study model (Equation4) through simulations. Our goal is two-fold: to show mathematical properties of the model that cannot be obtained from analysis, and to simulate the model with reasonably realistic parameters to study its behavior and understand better the relation between heroin epidemic and HIV epidemic.

5.1. Understanding the model beyond the analysis

In Section 4 we showed that if the two invasion numbers are greater than one, then the model has a coexistence equilibrium. Here through simulations we demonstrate coexistence equilibrium may not be unique. For some parameter regimes, there could be two equilibria with the coexistence equilibrium bifurcating forwards and turning backwards to form a second coexistence equilibrium (see Figure ). To plot the figure, we cancel λ1 in the equation for λ1, and then we solve for λ1 in terms of λ2: λ1=F(λ2). Then, in the equation for λ2, we cancel λ2 which eliminates the trivial and semi-trivial equilibria, and we replace λ1 with the corresponding function of λ2. In Figure  we plot λ2 in terms of β1 for several values for β2. It is interesting to note that increasing β2 leads to increasing the interval for β1 where 2 equilibria can be found. We surmise that the lower equilibrium is stable, while the upper is unstable and therefore bistability does not occur for this parameter regime.

Figure 1. Left: Figure shows two coexistence equilibria for some values of β1. Right: Areas of heroin dominance, HIV dominance, coexistence and bistable dominance. Parameter values in both figures are μi=1, μu=0.1, μv=3.5, q=0.1, σ=0.3, δ=0.1, μ=1/75, Λ=100.

Figure 1. Left: Figure shows two coexistence equilibria for some values of β1. Right: Areas of heroin dominance, HIV dominance, coexistence and bistable dominance. Parameter values in both figures are μi=1, μu=0.1, μv=3.5, q=0.1, σ=0.3, δ=0.1, μ=1/75, Λ=100.

Figure  right shows a plot of Rvi1(RU,RV)>1 and Rui2(RU,RV)>1 in the (RU,RV) plane. In the blue region, HIV will die out in the population but the heroin epidemic will persist. In the orange region, heroin epidemic will die out in the population but the HIV will persist. In the coexistence region both heroin and HIV will persist. In the white region, where Rvi1(RU,RV)<1 and Rui2(RU,RV)<1, either heroin epidemic will persist or HIV will persist, dependent on the initial conditions. We surmise that similar tools as in Section 4 will allow us to prove that in the white region there is also a coexistence equilibrium, but that one is very likely unstable, so either semi-trivial equilibrium attracts the solution, depending on the initial conditions.

5.2. Understanding the model in relation to US data

To obtain reasonably realistic parameters, we fit the model to heroin use data and HIV cases in the US. We use the heroin use data reported in [Citation23], Figure . We transform the percentages in [Citation23] based on the corresponding year US population. We assume children under age of 12 are 50 million, an assumption justified by the data given in [Citation25]. The data on heroin use show an alarming increasing trend. Heroin deaths are also increasing with 60-70% per year [Citation24]. HIV case data in the US can be obtained from a variaty of sources [Citation10,Citation22]. HIV case data in the US are showing steady decline in the past 15 years [Citation22] but recently one can observe stabilization of the number of new cases. We fit the heroin users in a year to U(t)+I(t) and the new cases of HIV to the incidence term IV(t)=λV(t)S(t)+qλV(t)U(t) using MATLAB to minimize the least square error: LSE=j=0n(U(tj)Yj)2+j=0m(IV(tj)yj)2 where Yj and yj are the y-coordinates of the respective data points and n and m are the number of data points in each data set. The results of the fitting are given in Figure . While fitting, we fixed the initial conditions for the ODE system at S(0)=45 million, U(0)=491000, V(0)=900000 and I(0)=7000.

Figure 2. Left: Figure shows fitting of the heroin use data. Right: Figure shows fitting to HIV incidence data. In both figures time is in years where year t = 0 is year 2005. The preestimated and fitted parameters are given in Table 1.

Figure 2. Left: Figure shows fitting of the heroin use data. Right: Figure shows fitting to HIV incidence data. In both figures time is in years where year t = 0 is year 2005. The preestimated and fitted parameters are given in Table 1.

Table 1. Table of fixed and fitted parameter values.

With the parameters in the table, we estimated RU=1.145 and RV=0.362. Despite the subthreshold value of RV, the invasion numbers are both above one at Rvi1=8.633 and Rui2=2.174. Although this scenario is not a part of the analysis, we surmise that the two diseases are in a coexistence regime regardless of the declining incidence of HIV and below one reproduction number. It appears that the heroin epidemic supports the spread of HIV and obstructs it's elimination from the population. It can be observed from the data that the decline in HIV incidence is slowing down, but simulation projections suggest that we can soon expect an increase in incidence if additional control measures are not put into place. Simulations also suggest that the coexistence class is experiencing increase beyond the end of the data.

5.3. Elasticities of the invasion numbers

Elasticities of the invasion numbers are quantities that suggest to which parameters the invasion numbers would be most sensitive. In general, the elasticity of a quantity Q with respect to the parameter p is defined as follows: EpQ=QppQ The elasticity EpQ>0 if Q increases with p and EpQ<0 if Q decreases with p. The fact that the elasticity of Q with respect to p is EpQ means that 1% increase in p will result in EpQ percent change in Q.

We denote the elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to the reproduction numbers as follows: A=Rui2RURURui2B=Rui2RVRVRui2C=Rvi1RURURvi1D=Rvi1RVRVRvi1 Parameters not involved in the reproduction numbers but potentially important for control are q and σ. We denote the elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to q and σ as follows: W=Rui2qqRui2X=Rvi1qqRvi1Y=Rui2σσRui2Z=Rvi1σσRvi1 Figure  left and right seems very similar but they are fundamentally different because the y-axis in left goes to 0.5, while the y-axis in right goes to 45. Looking at Figure  we see that the invasion numbers are most sensitive to q. Table 1 suggest that heroin users are 94 times more likely to get HIV than non-users. Using heroin increases the HIV risk behaviors, and decreasing the HIV infection in drug users is the most efficient way to decouple the two epidemics. Figure  left also suggests that Rui2 is most sensitive to RU. That means that another efficient control measure will be to target hard and strong the heroin epidemic. Interventions that decrease drug use will not only impact positively many lives but also will contribute to decrease in HIV cases.

Figure 3. Left: Figure shows elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to the reproduction numbers. Right: Figure shows the elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to q and σ. The parameters used are given in Table 1.

Figure 3. Left: Figure shows elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to the reproduction numbers. Right: Figure shows the elasticities of the invasion numbers with respect to q and σ. The parameters used are given in Table 1.

6. Discussion

In this paper, we have studied an HIV/heroin coinfection epidemic model, to describe the co-transmission of heroin and HIV in a single population. The unique disease free equilibrium always exists and it is stable only if both the basic reproduction numbers of heroin and HIV are less than 1, max{RU,RV}<1.

To consider the role of coinfection in our coinfection system, we introduce the invasion reproduction numbers. The invasion reproduction number Rui2 gives the reproduction of the heroin users when the population is at the equilibrium E2, that is, when HIV infection alone is at equilibrium in the single population. The invasion reproduction number Rvi1 gives the reproduction of the HIV infection at the equilibrium E1, that is when the heroin transmission alone is at equilibrium in the single population. The local stability of the boundary equilibria E1 and E2 are completely determined by the invasion reproduction numbers. In particular, E1 is locally stable only if Rvi1<1 and unstable if Rvi1>1. In addition, E2 is locally stable only if Rui2<1 (see Theorems 3.2 – 3.2) and unstable if Rui2>1.

Further, we show that if the two invasion numbers are above one, that is Rvi1>1 and Rui2>1, then coexistence equilibrium exists and simulations suggest it is at least locally stable. Further, simulations suggest that parameter regimes exist where two coexistence equilibria are possible. Simulations suggest that the model may have a coexistence equilibrium when Rvi1<1 and Rui2<1 but such a coexistence equilibrium is typically unstable. In this case, either heroin use alone will persist in the population or HIV alone will persist in the population, depending on the initial conditions.

Subsection 4.2 also demonstrated the relationship between the invasion reproduction number Rui2 and Rvi1. We showed under some assumptions that Rui2 decreases as Rvi1 increases and vice versa. This result suggests that the two diseases in many cases are in a competitive mode; however, coinfection leads to the two diseases coexistence, and in part to a ”symbiotic” relationship.

To determine realistic parameters, we compare our model with US data on heroin use and HIV cases. The derive parameters suggest that heroin users are 94 times more likely to get infected by HIV than non-users. These parameters seem to suggest that for the US the two diseases are in strongly coexistence mode with both invasion numbers larger than one. However, we surmise that the coexistence occurs despite the fact that the current reproduction number of HIV in the US is below one. Thus, we think that the heroin epidemic makes possible for the HIV epidemic to continue, regardless of a reproduction number below one. Elasticities of the invasion numbers suggest that control measures must target and tame the heroin epidemic, and success in this direction will likely reduce HIV transmission as well. Further, control measures will be most efficient in decoupling the epidemics, if they are focused on reducing the HIV risk in drug users, that is, they focus on reducing HIV transmission in drug users.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The study was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11771017).

References

Appendix

(i) To prove that H1/λ1>0. Note that λ1g1=g1+μiλ12,λ2g2λ1=λ2g2+λ2qλ12. By use of the expressions of A11 and A12, we have A11λ1A12A11A12λ1=(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))(g4(λ2)g5(λ1)+g6(λ2)+σδqλ1λ2)(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2))(g4(λ2)g5(λ1)+σδqλ2)=(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))σδqλ1λ2(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2))σδqλ2+(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))(g4(λ2)g5(λ1)+g6(λ2))(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2))g4(λ2)g5(λ1)=(μiλ12+λ2qλ12)σδqλ2+1λ1[λ1(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))(g4(λ2)g5(λ1)+g6(λ2))(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2))g4(λ2)μiλ1]=(μiλ12+λ2qλ12)σδqλ2+(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))g6(λ2)+B12, where B12=1λ1[λ1(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+g3(λ2))g4(λ2)g5(λ1)(g1(λ1)+λ2g2(λ1)+λ1g3(λ2))g4(λ2)μiλ1]=1λ1[(g1+μiλ12+qλ12λ2+λ2g2+λ1g3)(μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv)g4(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)μiλ1g4]=1λ1[(g1+μiλ12+qλ12λ2+λ2g2+λ1g3)(σδ+μi)μvg4+(μiλ12+qλ12λ2)μiλ1g4]>0. Note that g1>0, g2>0. Then we have A11λ1A12A11A12λ1>0  H1λ1>0. (ii) By use of the expressions of A11 and A12, we have A11λ2A12A11A12λ2=(g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6+σδqλ1λ2)(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6+σδqλ1)=(g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6)(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6)+(g2+λ1g3)σδqλ1λ2(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)σδqλ1=1λ2[λ2(g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6)(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)(g4g5+g6)λ2]+(λ2g2+λ1g3+λ1qλ22)σδqλ1(g1+λ2g2+λ1g3)σδqλ1=1λ2[(λ2g2+λ1g3+λ1qλ22)(g4g5+g6)(λ2g2+λ1g3)(qg5λ2+g6+qλ22(σδ+μi))]+q2λ12λ22σδg1σδqλ1g1(qg5+g6)=1λ2[λ1qλ22g4g5+λ1qλ22g6+(λ2g2+λ1g3)μug5λ2g2qλ22(σδ+μi)λ1g3qλ22(σδ+μi)]+q2λ12λ22σδg1σδqλ1g1(qg5+g6)=qg3g1+μug2g5+1λ2μug3g1g2qλ22(σδ+μi)+q2λ12λ22σδg1σδqλ1g1(qg5+g6)=qg3g1+μug2g5+1λ2μug3g1g1σδqλ1g1qg5+(σδ+μi)1λ2g3+qλ2(σδ+μi)q2λ1λ22(λ1+μv)(σδ+μi)+q2λ12λ22σδ=qg3g1+μug2g5g1σδqλ1g1qg5g1qλ2(σδ+μi)1λ2g3g1(σδ+μiμu)q2λ22g1=B21+B22, where B21=μug2g5g1σδqλ1g1qg5=g5[μuλ1q(λ1+μv)σδqλ12qλ1(μiλ1+(σδ+μi)μv)]=g5[μuqλ12σδqλ12qλ12μiqλ1(σδ+μi)μv+μuqλ1μv]=g5(σδ+μiμu)[qλ12+qλ1μv]<0,B22=qg3g1g1qλ2(σδ+μi)1λ2g3g1(σδ+μiμu)q2λ22g1=g1qλ2(qλ2+μu)g1qλ2(σδ+μi)(qλ2+μu)g1(σδ+μiμu)q2λ22g1=g1qλ2(σδ+μiμu)(qλ2+μu)g1(σδ+μiμu)=(2qλ2+μu)g1(σδ+μiμu)<0. In the above proofs, we have used that σ1 and dIdU, i.e. (σδ+μiμu)>0. Thus, we obtain A11λ2A12A11A12λ2<0, and therefore H1(λ1,λ2)/λ2<0.