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Abstract
This paper introduces a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies devoted to a review of Ethiopia's 20 years of “revolutionary democracy”. The collection brings together 11 articles exploring differing aspects of Ethiopia's political experience since 1991. This introduction begins with a short summary of these 11 papers, but then moves to a substantive review of Ethiopia's political history over the past two decades, featuring consideration of the extent of transformation and continuity under the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the importance of economic issues in defining government policies, and the significance of development and relations with donors.
Notes
1. The editors express their sincere gratitude to David Anderson, editor of the Journal of Eastern African Studies, for his enthusiasm and editorial work in the preparation of this special issue.
2. For a survey, see Abbink, A Bibliography of Ethiopian–Eritrean Studies.
3. Neither addressed in the papers are the impact of ethnic federalism and multi-party politics on gender and women, or Ethiopia's international relations (specifically with relations with Eritrea or with other neighbouring countries).
4. Cf. the statement in a 1993 EPRDF document, still in force: “We can attain our objectives and goals only if Revolutionary Democracy becomes the governing outlook in our society, and only by winning the elections successively and holding power without letup can we securely establish the hegemony of Revolutionary Democracy. If we lose in the elections even once, we will encounter a great danger.” Cited in: “TPLF-EPRDF's Strategies for Establishing its Hegemony and Perpetuating its Rule” (English translation of a 1993 document in Amharic), in Ethiopian Register 3, no. 6 (1996): 26.
5. EPRDF, The Development Lines of Revolutionary Democracy.
6. But not independent radio, TV or Internet servers.
7. An-Na'im, Cultural Transformation.
8. In allusion to Clapham's classic book Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia.
9. Turton, Ethnic Federalism.
10. Abbink, “Ethnicity and Conflict Generation.”
11. Merera, “Ethnicity, Democratisation and Decentralization”; Abebe, “A Comparative Welfare Analysis.”
12. Müller-Mahn, Rettburg, and Getachew, “Pathways and Dead Ends.”
13. Hagmann, “Beyond Clannishness and Colonialism”; Devereux, “Better Marginalised than Incorporated?”
14. Tsige, “1154 out of 3822 NGOs.”
15. Vaughan and Tronvoll, The Culture of Power; ICG, Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism; also Vaughan, “Revolutionary Democratic State-building” (this issue).
16. Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia.
17. Toggia, “The State of Emergency.”
18. Aalen and Tronvoll, “The 2008 Ethiopian Local Elections”,“The End of Democracy?”; Tronvoll, “Briefing.” This is, however, a moot point. EPRDF never stated its aim as being a mainstream parliamentary democracy but as one in which democratic rights were to be achieved primarily via ethnic rights. Observers have underestimated what leeway this gives for federal divide-and-rule and control policy.
19. Lefort, “Powers – Mengist – and Peasants”; Pausewang, “Ethiopia: A Political View from Below.”
20. See the polemic: Hagmann, “Ethiopian Political Culture Strikes Back”; Abbink, “Interpreting Ethiopian Elections.”
21. Clapham, Transformation and Continuity, 21.
22. Tronvoll, War and the Politics of Identity in Ethiopia; Vaughan and Tronvoll, The Culture of Power.
23. Clapham, “Controlling Space in Ethiopia,” 14, 28.
24. Hagmann and Korf, “Agamben in the Ogaden.”
25. We are indebted to Jean-Nicholas Bach for this observation.
26. PM Meles Zenawi outlined this in a text, “African Development: Dead Ends and New Beginnings,” reportedly a zero draft of a projected PhD thesis, http://cgt.columbia.edu/files/conferences/Zenawi_Dead_Ends_and_New_Beginnings.pdf ( accessed June 2, 2009). See also: “Meles Prescribes Developmental State Paradigm for African States,” NewBusinessEthiopia.com, March 29, 2011 (accessed May 6, 2011).
27. Tronvoll, War and the Politics of Identity, 58.
28. Marchal, “A Tentative Assessment.”
29. The oligopoly character of Ethiopia's economy is particularly visible in the import sector and is compounded by the absence of anti-trust legislation.
30. See Chanie, “Clientelism and Ethiopia’s post-1991 decentralisation”.
31. EPRDF, Strategy of Revolutionary Democracy, 7.
32. Bach, “Abyotawi Democracy” (this issue).
33. In 1978 the TPLF established the Relief Society of Tigray (REST), which became the lynchpin of its economic empire. REST tapped the resources of the donor community, which was reluctant to deal directly with an armed guerrilla movement, for relief and development efforts in the TPLF-controlled parts of Tigray (BBC news message, “On the Trail of Ethiopia Aid and Guns,” March 4, 2010). REST later on became a major player in the commodity market; buying and selling agricultural products and inputs and monetizing food aid. By 2000 it had more than 1000 employees and was considered Africa's biggest NGO (Clark, Civil Society, NGOs, and Development, 9).
34. Anonymous, “From the Bullet to the Bank Account.”
36. Paulos, “Ethiopia, the TPLF, and the Roots of the 2001 Political Tremor,” 45.
35. Anonymous, “From the Bullet to the Bank Account,” 26.
37. EFFORT played a leading role in TPLF's involvement in the financial sector and became the largest shareholder when the private Wegagen bank was formed in 1997.
38. Indian Ocean Newsletter, January 11, 2002.
39. “Amidst Election Fever Jailed Businessmen, Bankers Given Surprise Bail,” Capital (Addis Ababa), May 25, 2005.
40. Anonymous, “From the Bullet to the Bank Account.”
41. The GTP was preceded by the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) (2006–2011) and the Sustainable Development and Policy Reduction Programme or SDPRP (2002–2006).
42. World Bank, Well-Being and Poverty in Ethiopia; IMF Country Report No. 08/260, July 2008.
43. Notably the persistently high unemployment rates among urban educated school graduates are worrying; cf. Serneels, “The Nature of Unemployment.”
44. “IMF Cuts Government's GDP Forecast by Half,” Reporter (Addis Ababa), March 8, 2009.
45. Dercon et al., “In Search of a Strategy.”
46. Feyissa, “Aid Negotiation” (this issue).
47. Bishop and Hilhorst, “From Food Aid to Food Security.”
48. VOA News, August 15, 2011 “China Pledges $55 Million in Famine Aid for Horn of Africa”.
49. Human Rights Watch, Development without Freedom; DAG Statement – Human Rights Watch (HRW) Report: Development without Freedom – How Aid Underwrites Repression in Ethiopia, October 21, 2010, http://www dagethiopia.org, (accessed April 5, 2011). See also the BBC documentary documenting aid abuse, screened on August 5, 2011, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/9556288.stm (accessed August 5, 2011).
50. There is also a growing ideological affinity with China's strongly authoritarian developmental state. See the interview with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn: “Chinese Place no Conditions in Terms of Ideology,” Africa Confidential 52 (February 4, 2011): 8.
51. Economist Intelligence Unit. 2008. Ethiopia. London: Economist Intelligence Unit, p. 11.
52. See a nationwide Gallup poll of 2007 on Ethiopia, www.gallup.com/poll/104029/few-ethiopians-confident-their-institutions.aspx (accessed July 29, 2011) and the very interesting paper by Orgeret, “When Will the Daybreak Come?”
53. Perhaps in addition to election fraud or some doctoring of ballots.
54. The government's impatience with domestic and foreign scholars has grown after 2005, and academic freedom in Ethiopia has shrunk. Most Ethiopian academics working for one of the country's 31 public universities had to join the local EPRDF affiliate party as institutions of higher learning have become thoroughly politicized. This has led to a decline in critical work and public debate by scholars.
55. Abbink, A Bibliography of Ethiopian–Eritrean Studies.