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ABSTRACT
This article brings together the literature on ‘electoral authoritarian regimes’ with the sub-fields of diaspora studies and transnationalism to evaluate the potential of political parties in exile to be forces for positive change in Rwanda. With this in mind, the article asks one simple question: is the participation of the Rwandan opposition in exile in electoral processes back home likely to be a positive force for change? It concludes that, in Rwanda at least, elections cannot be won transnationally. As such, those hoping for a more democratic Rwanda should look elsewhere. Operating in a transnational space appears to make life harder for the opposition, but not the Rwandan state. Further, the division, inconsistency, sudden shifts, splits, and volte-face of Rwanda’s diasporic opposition is produced, at least in part, by the competitive authoritarian nature of Rwanda. What the Rwandan case reveals, then, is at least one instance where unfair elections do not make future liberalisation more likely.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1. Schedler, Electoral Authoritarianism; Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa; Brownlee, Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization; and Bellin, “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East.”
2. Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy.
3. Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
4. Lyons and Mandaville, Politics from Afar; Østergaard-Nielsen, Transnational Politics; Salehyan, Rebels Without Borders; and Sheffer, Diaspora Politics.
5. Østergaard-Nielsen, Transnational Politics.
6. Hammond, “Somalia Rising.”
7. McGregor and Primorac, Zimbabwe’s New Diaspora; Crush and Tevera, Zimbabwe’s Exodus; and Mbiba, “Zimbabwean Diaspora Politics in Britain.”
8. Orjuela, “Distant Warriors, Distant Peace Workers?”
9. Lyons, “Conflict-Generated Diasporas and Transnational Politics in Ethiopia.”
10. Bernal, “Eritrea Goes Global.”
11. Again, there are honourable exceptions, for example, Rafti, “The Dismantling of the Rwandan Political Opposition in Exile” and Turner, “Staging the Rwandan Diaspora.”
12. Rafti, “The Rwandan Political Opposition in Exile” and Marijnen, “Exister Cest Rèsister – Resist to Exist.”
13. For illustrative reports on the first elections of Rwanda’s transitional period, see HRW, “No Contest in Rwandan Elections”; ICG, ‘“Consensual Democracy’ in Post-genocide Rwanda’; and EU, Mission d’Observation Electorale de l’Union Européenne.
14. Parti Social Démocrate (PSD), Parti Libéral (PL), Parti de la Solidarité et du Progrès (PSP), Parti pour le Progrès et la Concorde (PPC), Parti Socialiste Rwandais (PSR), Parti Démocratique Chrétien/Centriste (PDC), and Union Démocratique du Peuple Rwandais (UPDR).
15. Quoted in Reyntjens, Political Governance in Post-genocide Rwanda, 47.
16. Stroh, “Electoral Rules of the Authoritarian Game.”
17. EU, Final Report: Legislative Elections to the Chamber of Deputies.
18. Stroh, “The Effects of Electoral Institutions in Rwanda.”
19. Patrick Karegeya, Kayumba Nyamwasa, Théogene Rudasingwa, and Gerald Gahima
20. Jackson, “Legacy of Bitterness.”
21. Turner, The Congo Wars.
24. Mugabe, “Rwanda Opposition Coalition in the West Divided over Genocide Denial.”
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid. As were the RNC, who will be discussed more in the following section.
27. Ndagijimana, Interview.
28. Our interviewees mentioned meetings in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Germany.
29. This is usually, as it is here, a coded reference to Hutu.
30. “Agent Provocateur Emerges in the Kingdom Kagame Built.”
31. “Rwanda’s Blood-Soaked History Becomes a Tool for Repression.”
32. Translation courtesy of the Proxy Lake, available at http://www.theproxylake.com/2011/10/ingabire-divisionist-speech/.
33. Péan, Noires Fureurs, Blancs Menteurs.
34. Lemarchand, “Rwanda: The State of Research,” unpaginated version.
35. Ruzibiza and Vidal, Rwanda, l’histoire secrète.
36. Lemarchand, “Rwanda: The State of Research,” unpaginated version.
37. Vourlias, “Strange Times in Kigali.”
38. “Rwandan Opposition Parties Join Forces.”
39. Ibid.
40. Berwouts, “Lady in Pink.”
41. “Genocide-Row Politician Attacked.”
42. Ibid.
43. Human Rights Watch, “Rwanda: End Attacks on Opposition Parties.”
44. Vourlias, “Just When You Thought It Was Safe to Leave Burundi … ”
45. “Agent Provocateur Emerges in the Kingdom Kagame Built.”
46. Perera, “Alternative Agency.”
47. “Victoire Ingabire (Does Not) Seek Refuge at UK High Commission.”
48. Karuhanga, “UK High Commissioner Rejects Ingabire’s Refuge Claims.”
49. Vourlias, “The Curious Case of Victoire Ingabire.”
50. Ibid.
51. Mwenda, “Lt. Gen. Nyamwasa Was Building Own Power Base.”
52. “Exclusive – Interview Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa | Upfront Africa.”
53. Onana, Les secrets du génocide rwandais.
54. France 24, “Africa – Police Arrest Main Suspect in Kigali Grenade Attacks.”
55. “How Mushayidi Was Captured.”
56. The ‘59ers are the generation who fled Rwanda in 1959 following pogroms directed largely against Tutsi, who went on to settle largely in Southern Uganda (although not in Rwisereka’s case).
57. I believe Jean-Claude Ntezimana, the Organising Secretary, is also ex-RPF, but this has not been possible to verify.
58. I am not a lawyer and will not pretend I know whether or not this is true. It is at least ambiguous, given that there is a mention in Arusha that some sort of forum for political parties will be set up.
59. Habineza, “Press Release.”
60. Mugabe, “Conspiracy to Oust Frank Habineza from Green Party in Pipeline.”
61. See comments by Habineza, Mugisha, and Ntezimana in Reporter, “There’s a Plot to Finish Us, Alleges Rwanda’s Green Party Boss.”
62. Author’s fieldnotes.
63. Reporter, “Opposition Party Registration Is Impossible Say Green Party Boss.”
64. Kagire, “Rwanda.”
65. “Rwanda Shuts Down Independent Press (Includes Interview).”
66. Ibid.
67. Press Release available at http://www.victoire2010.info/index.php?ApplID=V2010&Release=02&DocID=0000000214.
68. “Arrestation au Rwanda d’une opposante à Paul Kagamé.”
69. Gettleman and Kron, “Presidential Candidate Is Arrested in Rwanda.”
70. Howden and Correspondent, “Presidential Candidate Is Arrested in Rwanda.”
71. “Oppositieleidster in Rwanda Verdacht van Steun Aan Terrorisme”; “Oppositieleidster in Cel; Rwandese Die Jarenlang in Nederland Woonde Gearresteerd.”
N.B. This list is not exhaustive – other media outlets did not cover the story.
72. Kagire, “Rwanda.”
73. “GG Apologizes for Rwandan Genocide Inaction” and MacCharles, “The Governor General Tells Rwandans Canada Takes Responsibility for Failing to Respond ‘Soon Enough,’ in the First State Visit since 1994 Genocide.”
However, credit must be given to the Guelph Mercury and the New Glasgow News, who both published a considerably longer piece with much more detail on press freedom in Rwanda (if still no mention of Ingabire’s arrest), Cf. “GG Delves into Free-Speech Debate amid Crackdown in Rwanda.”
74. Baldauf, “Rwanda Crackdown.”
75. Ibid.
76. Baldauf, “Rwandan Opposition Leader Ingabire Released on Bail.”
77. “Rwanda.”
78. Kagire, “Rwanda.”
79. Berwouts, “Lady in Pink.”
80. “Rwanda: Ensure Appeal After Unfair Ingabire Trial.”
81. “Rwanda: Eight-Year Sentence for Opposition Leader.”
82. Schedler, “The Menu of Manipulation.”
83. Reyntjens, Political Governance in Post-genocide Rwanda; Jones, “Between Pyongyang and Singapore”; and Straus and Waldorf, Remaking Rwanda.
84. Thomson, Whispering Truth to Power.
85. Omaar and Waal, Rwanda: The Insurgency in the Northwest and Jackson, “Legacy of Bitterness.”