Quantifying the rise of vaccine opposition on Twitter during the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to global health and there is currently an unprecedented research effort to deliver an effective COVID-19 vaccine. Yet an increasingly vocal movement has the potential to erode support in vaccination. This study examined shifts in vaccine opposition on Twitter.

Methods

A search query collected publicly available Twitter posts related to vaccine opposition and posts were categorized into themes. Coders compared conversation during the four months before COVID-19 spread in the United States (10/15/2019 to 2/14/2020) to four subsequent months (2/15/2020 to 6/14/2020) of community spread.

Results

Across time periods, vaccine opposition on Twitter increased by 80%. Twelve conversation themes were identified and tracked across time periods, with increases observed in percentage of conversation about COVID-19, federal health authorities, vaccine ingredients, and research/ clinical trials.

Conclusions

This study quantified the increase in vaccine opposition on Twitter and suggests that vaccine opponents are fomenting opposition toward a COVID-19 vaccine and encouraging mistrust in health authorities. Vaccine beliefs are a spectrum, with support and opposition existing as a range. Exposure to these increased amounts of vaccine opposition may encourage those who are vaccine hesitant or have questions about vaccines to move toward opposition, which could have drastic health impacts at a population level for decades to come. To ensure the widest support for a COVID-19 vaccine, it is important to identify and address the messages used by vaccine opponents.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• vaccines
• social media
• pandemics

Acknowledgements

The New York State Health Foundation is a private foundation dedicated to improving the health of all New Yorkers.

Disclosure statement

Brian Byrd is a Senior Program Officer at The New York State Health Foundation, which provided funding for Project VCTR.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by The New York State Health Foundation.

Notes on contributors

Erika Bonnevie

Erika Bonnevie is the Director of Research at PGP. She has worked in domestic and global public health across a variety of topics, including gender-based violence, human rights law, maternal/ child health, mental health, obesity, substance use, and infectious disease.

Allison Gallegos-Jeffrey

Allison Gallegos-Jeffrey is a Research Associate at PGP. She specializes in qualitative research on topics including vaccines, mental health, and substance use.

Jaclyn Goldbarg

Jaclyn Goldbarg is the Chief Programs Officer at PGP. She has significant experience in research, strategy, evaluation, and community partnership aspects of public health programs.

Brian Byrd

Brian Byrd is a Senior Program Officer at The New York State Health Foundation. Mr. Byrd has considerable experience in the health field. As Senior Program Officer, he manages the New York State Foundation’s Special Projects Fund, which serves as an opportunity to be responsive to the changing health care environment, especially to innovative ideas that emerge from the health field.

Joseph Smyser

Dr. Joseph Smyser, Chief Executive Officer at PGP, has worked at the intersection of public health and marketing throughout his career. He has designed core strategies for several of the United States’ largest behavior change campaigns.