Abstract
This study investigates how factors that influence farmers’ intentions to adapt to climate change differ from each other in regions with different levels of vulnerability to climate change. Data were collected from interviews with 598 rice farmers in Dong Thap, Soc Trang and Long An provinces in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. These provinces were identified respectively as highly, moderately and mildly vulnerable to climate change. Multi-group structural equation modelling was employed. There are some differences regarding factors that influence farmers’ adaptation intentions and the magnitude of the diverse influences across the three provinces. Perceived risks of climate change and perceived influences of the increases in electricity, water and fuel prices significantly influence farmers’ adaptation intentions only in Long An. Soc Trang farmers are significantly influenced by the pressures from other people in adaptation intentions. Denial of climate change risk, wishful thinking and fatalism significantly affect farmers’ adaptation intentions in both Dong Thap and Long An. The perceived effectiveness of adaptive measures is important to adaptation intentions in all provinces. Thus, vulnerability levels do matter to factors affecting farmers’ intentions to adapt. However, the influences of these factors on adaptation intention are not significantly different across the three regions. This may imply a minor difference in the vulnerability levels of the three regions. Local farmers are either not aware of their vulnerability levels; or vulnerability is not an important factor guiding farmers’ adaptation intentions. Some policy implications are drawn for formulating more effective adaptation strategies.
Acknowledgements
This paper is part of a PhD research at the University of Adelaide. This PhD research is made possible under the sponsor of AusAID to Hoa Le Dang. Data collection for the research is funded by the School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, the University of Adelaide. We are very grateful to the Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development of 6 districts: Long Phu and My Tu (Soc Trang Province), Thap Muoi and Tam Nong (Dong Thap Province), and Duc Hoa and Thanh Hoa (Long An Province) for their great help and support in organising farmer interviews. We would like to thank 20 undergraduate students of Nong Lam University, local guides and farm households in the Mekong Delta in helping and supporting our interviews during December 2011 and January 2012. We also thank Alison-Jane Hunter for editing the manuscript and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1 PMT is a major theory in health risk studies (Floyd, Prentice-Dunn, & Rogers, Citation2000; Maddux & Rogers, Citation1983; Rogers, Citation1975). However, other studies on protective behaviours have applied this theory in analysis (Cismaru & Lavack, Citation2006; Kantola, Syme, & Nesdale, Citation1983; Tanner, Day, & Crask, Citation1989; Wolf, Gregory, & Stephan, Citation1986), especially for natural hazards, environmental problems and climate change (Grothmann & Patt, Citation2005; Grothmann & Reusswig, Citation2006; Mulilis & Lippa, Citation1990; Osberghaus, Finkel & Pohl, Citation2010; Zaalberg & Midden, Citation2010).
2 The survey areas are as follows: in Dong Thap province: Hung Thanh and Tan Kieu communes (Thap Muoi district), Phu Duc and Phu Cuong communes (Tam Nong district); in Soc Trang province: Song Phung and Chau Khanh communes (Long Phu district), Long Hung and My Huong communes (My Tu district); in Long An province: Hoa Khanh Dong and Hoa Khanh Nam communes (Duc Hoa district), Tan Dong and Tan Tay communes (Thanh Hoa district).
3 The definition of climate change was from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Citation2001, Citation2007) and its interpretations from empirical studies (Apata et al., Citation2009; Barnett, Citation2001; Deressa et al., Citation2011; Mertz et al., Citation2009; Schad et al., Citation2012; Smit, McNabb, & Smithers, Citation1996; Smit, Burton, Klein, & Wandel, Citation2000; Thomas, Twyman, Osbahr, & Hewitson, Citation2007; Vedwan & Rhoades, Citation2001).
4 Path coefficients refer to the estimated coefficients of the relationships between constructs.
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