Characterizing rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change and extremes in Migori River Watershed, Kenya

ABSTRACT

Sub-Saharan Africa, of which Kenya is part, is considered the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources. Since the rural livelihood systems in Kenya are expected to bear some of the worst effects of climate change, it is imperative to assess rural households’ vulnerability to climate change impacts to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies. Therefore, this paper determines the level and sources of households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate variability in the Migori River watershed, Kenya. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) was applied. A cross-sectional household survey conducted on 318 randomly selected households was used to assess how vulnerability differs across three watershed zones, upstream, midstream, and downstream. The LVI-IPCC scores were −0.047, −0.003, and 0.008 for the upstream, midstream, and downstream zones, respectively, with significant differences noted in the scores (ANOVA, p < 0.05). Findings indicate that while the livelihoods in all three zones showed moderate vulnerability to environmental and socio-economic stressors, there are notable variations between them. The downstream households exhibit the highest vulnerability, attributed to their lower adaptive capacity, increased exposure, and heightened sensitivity. Conversely, the upstream households demonstrate the least vulnerability compared to the other zones, owing to their lower sensitivity and exposure, as well as better adaptive capacity. Policy recommendations for reducing households’ exposure to climate risks and for strengthening their adaptive capacity are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• rural household livelihoods
• livelihood vulnerability index
• LVI-IPCC
• watershed development

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank DAAD for financing this study. The authors also wish to thank the research assistants for their assistance in coordinating the fieldwork for this research. All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Dr Stephen Balaka Opiyo under the close supervision of Prof. Sammy Letema and Dr Godwin Opinde. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Dr Stephen Balaka Opiyo. Prof. Sammy Letema and Dr Godwin Opinde critically reviewed the manuscript and contributed intellectual content. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by DAAD through a full Ph.D. Scholarship granted to the first/corresponding author.

Notes on contributors

Stephen Balaka Opiyo

Dr. Stephen Balaka Opiyo is a researcher at the School of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Spatial and Environmental Planning, Kenyatta University, Nairobi - Kenya. He holds a PhD in Environmental Planning and Management from Kenyatta University (Kenya). His research interests span the domains of environmental governance, GIS and remote sensing, aquatic ecology, climate change adaptation & mitigation, and watershed ecohydrology. He has published over a dozen peer-reviewed scientific articles in reputable international journals in the field of environmental science.

Sammy Letema

Dr. Sammy Letema is a Senior Lecturer at Kenyatta University in the Department of Spatial and Environmental Planning. He holds a Doctorate Degree in sanitary systems delivery from Wageningen University in the Netherlands and a Master's and Bachelor's Degree in Environmental Planning and Management from Kenyatta University in Kenya. His research and publications are on facets of environmental planning and management: land use, sanitation, waste, energy, and resilience. Dr. Letema has authored a number of peer reviewed articles, book chapters and a book.

Godwin Opinde

Dr. Godwin Opinde is a lecturer and researcher at the School of Engineering, Department of Spatial and Environmental Planning, Kenyatta University, Nairobi - Kenya. He holds a PhD in Environmental Planning & Management (Kenyatta University). His research interests include climate change adaptation & mitigation, air quality management, waste management, transport planning and environmental governance in the global south. He has published peer reviewed articles in international Journals.