Labor mobility, economic shocks and jobless growth evidence from panel data in Morocco^†

^†The paper has been prepared by a joint team from the High Commission for the Plan of Morocco and the World Bank. We are grateful for detailed comments to Tara Vishwanath, David Robalino, Diego Angel-Urdinola and participants to seminars held in Rabat and Washington where the paper was presented.

Abstract

During the past 20 years, Morocco has implemented a wide range of macroeconomic, social and labor market reforms that have delivered in terms of GDP growth and household welfare. Yet, these positive developments are not reflected by the main labor market indicators, a phenomenon observed elsewhere in developed and developing economies alike and labeled as ‘jobless growth’. For the first time in Morocco, this paper investigates the question of labor mobility using quarterly panel data in an effort to determine whether people have moved to better sectors and jobs. Results point to significant labor mobility between labor statuses with quite distinct features across population groups. All groups experience some form of labor market mobility every quarter and women are as mobile as men. However, the transitions that women experience are very different from the transitions that men experience and women's performance is worse than men's performance in almost all aspects of labor mobility.

Keywords:

• labor market
• unemployment
• employment
• labor force participation

JEL Classification:

• F66
• J01
• J08
• J16
• J21
• J42

Notes

^† The paper has been prepared by a joint team from the High Commission for the Plan of Morocco and the World Bank. We are grateful for detailed comments to Tara Vishwanath, David Robalino, Diego Angel-Urdinola and participants to seminars held in Rabat and Washington where the paper was presented.

1. For more information on weighting see appendix and Clarke and Tate (1999), Jauneau and Nouël de Buzonnière (2011).

2. Workers may of course move from public to private but informal jobs and this may not be necessarily a positive transition from the perspective of the social planner. This distinction is addressed under the classification formal/informal given the informal jobs are typically private.

3. It should be noted that part of the explanation may also lie in response errors. Response errors may indicate movements where these have in fact not occurred, or vice-versa, and these errors can occur at the initial or final interview. We believe this phenomenon to be small in Morocco because of the computer assisted and live verification methods adopted by the Department of Statistics. However, some degree of error is possible and may affect this conclusion. See, for example, Abowd and Arnold (1985, pp. 254–283).

4. The net upward transitions are the difference between the sum of upward movements and the sum of downward movements across the statuses considered.

5. Note that the distinction between the different categories is not calculated from work-time but derives from a specific question asked to respondents.