The impact of climate change on the technical accessibility of forests in the Tikhvin District of the Leningrad Region of Russia

Abstract

Large forest areas in Russia are accessible for wood harvest only during the ground-frost season with stable snow cover. Currently, in the Leningrad Region, 80% of the actual annual fellings are carried out in winter. The general aim of the study was to develop a simple method to predict the impact of climate change on production of industrial and energy wood. The Tikhvin District of the Leningrad Region of Russia was selected as a study area. The average duration of the winter felling season was predicted for decades in the period 2008–2098 using the daily temperature trend in the period 1949–2008 derived from regional meteorological data and extrapolated out to 2098. The average duration of the winter felling season is predicted to decrease by 3–4 days per decade. Forests which can be cut only in winter were identified using geographic information technologies and a set of criteria. Annually, 209,000 m³ of industrial and energy wood can be cut in these forests. The supply of energy wood is less vulnerable to the reduction of winter felling season compared to the production of industrial wood because summer felling sites can provide enough energy wood to satisfy the current demand. In the future, the most harmful impact of climate change on the technical accessibility of wood in the study area will be the increasing occurrence of extreme, short winters.

Keywords:

• industrial wood
• energy wood
• GIS
• winter fellings
• identification of forest sites
• harvestable volumes

Acknowledgements

This study was undertaken within the project Wood Harvesting and Logistics in Russia: Focus on Research and Business Opportunities, financed by Tekes (the Finnish funding agency for technology and innovation) and a consortium of Finnish companies. The authors also thank Mr. M. Trishkin and Mr. A. Golubev for their assistance with data collection and processing. The work of Dr. Eugene Lopatin was supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, project 14.B37.21.1248.