Unveiling the transforming landscape: exploring patterns and drivers of land use/land cover change in Dar es Salaam Metropolitan City, Tanzania

ABSTRACT

 This study employs Landsat images from 1995, 2009, and 2022, utilizing Google Earth Engine and Random Forest algorithm in R software for land use and land cover change analysis in Dar es Salaam Metropolitan City. Results show a substantial shift, notably in bushland and forest, with a 14.57% and 2.9% decline, respectively. Drivers of change include urban (14.87%) and agricultural (4.47%) growth. Overall, 64.3% of land cover changed, primarily transitioning from bushland to agriculture (25.7%) and forest to agriculture (9.2%). Qualitative insights underscore unregulated urban expansion, informal settlements, migration, human activities, and inadequate planning as significant contributors, aiding sustainable urban governance.

KEYWORDS:

• Land use and land cover
• driving factors
• spatial-temporal analysis
• urban planning
• socioeconomic factors
• land cover change

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the United States Geological Surveys (USGS) for their valuable contributions to Landsat imagery. Furthermore, the authors thank the Temeke municipality, Ubungo municipality, and Dar es Salaam City Council staff for their active involvement in the key informant interviews. Additionally, the authors would like to thank the selected wards in those areas for their enthusiastic participation in the focus group discussions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This study was partially funded through the GMES and Africa Scholarship Grant.