Segmentation of Chinese Tourists by Seasonal and Trend Patterns: The Case of Macao

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a novel data-driven technique utilizing feature-based time series clustering to segment the huge Chinese market based on two distinct tourism phenomena, seasonality and growth trend. The study first extracted the temporal and spatial features from secondary time-series data of Macao tourist arrivals from 23 provinces/municipalities in mainland China and clustered, based on the extracted features, the tourists, thus splitting regions into five segments with distinct seasonal and growth patterns. The segments suggested there is an association between the tourism demand dynamic and the regions’ geographical and socio-economic characteristics. This exploratory study provides practical insights that could enable destination planners to target markets with high growth potential and to manage seasonal variation in tourism demand through formulating policies catering to different market segments.

摘要

本研究提出了一种崭新的数据驱动分析方法，利用旅游时间序列数据中常呈现的特征，即季节性波动和增长趋势，分割中国的庞大的旅游市场。本研究利用23个中国大陆省市的访澳旅客数据，首先从时间序列数据中提取季节性波动和增长趋势的特征，将23个客源地划分为五个具有独特的季节性波动和增长趋势模式的区域。这些细分市场表明，旅游需求的动态变化与各地区的地理和社会经济特征之间存在一定关联。此探索性研究提供了实用的见解，能帮助政策规划者能够瞄准具有高增长潜力的市场，并通过制定迎合不同细分市场的政策来管理旅游需求的季节性变化。

KEYWORDS:

• Market segmentation
• tourism demand
• time series
• clustering
• seasonal and growth trend
• Macao

关键词:

• 市场划分
• 旅游需求
• 时间序列
• 类聚分析
• 季节性波动及成长趋势
• 澳门

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully thank Institute for Tourism Studies, Macao for offering the Residential Research Grants to Dr Edmund H. C. Wu to conduct the current research.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Joey Pek Sou

Joey Pek Sou is Lecturer in the Institute for Tourism Studies, Macao SAR, China (E-mail: mailto:[email protected] [email protected]).

Edmond Hao Cun Wu

Edmond Hao Cun Wu is Associate Professor in the Department of Quantitative Economics, School of Economics and Commerce at South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China (E-mail: mailto:[email protected] [email protected]).

Wendy Sio Lai Tang

Wendy Sio Lai Tang is Research Assistant in the Tourism College at the Institute for Tourism Studies, Macao SAR, China (E-mail: mailto:[email protected] [email protected]).