Tourism and Economic Development: A Multivariate Panel Granger Causality Test

ABSTRACT

This study applies a recently developed bootstrap multivariate panel Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between international tourism receipts and economic growth in 20 regions of China for the period from 1995 to 2018. The results support evidence for the growth hypothesis in regions, such as Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. A reverse relationship supports evidence of the conservation hypothesis for regions, such as Hunan and Inner Mongolia. In addition, a reciprocal causal relationship was found in Guangxi, Qinghai, Tibet, and Yunnan while the result of a neutrality hypothesis supported 9 of these 20 major regions (i.e., Chognqing, Gansu, Guizhou, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Jilin, Shanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang).

摘要

本研究应用拔靴多变量面板的格兰杰因果关系来检验中国20个地区1995至2018年间的国际旅游收入与经济增长之间的因果关系, 并解释这些地区的相关性与异质性。实证结果, 支持了增长假说, 例如安徽, 河南, 湖北, 宁夏和陕西等地区。支持经济成长驱动旅游发展假说的关系, 例如湖南与内蒙古地区。此外, 广西, 青海, 西藏和云南发现了支持互惠的因果关系, 而支持中立假设的结果有20个地区中的9个地区 (即重庆, 甘肃, 贵州, 黑龙江, 江西, 吉林, 山西, 四川和新疆)。

KEYWORDS:

• China’s regions
• economic growth
• international tourism receipts
• dependency and heterogeneity
• panel Granger causality test

关键词:

• 中国地区
• 经济增长
• 国际旅游收入
• 依赖性与异质性
• 面板格兰杰因果关系检验

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Department of Education of Guangdong Province [Grant Number 2018WTSCX214].

Notes on contributors

Tsung-Pao Wu

Tsung-Pao Wu is Professor in School of Accounting and Finance at Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China. He receives his Ph.D. in finance from Feng Chia University. His research interest focuses on tourism economics (E-mail: [email protected]).

Hung-Che Wu

Hung-Che Wu is an Associate Professor in Business School at Nanfang College of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong Province, China. He receives his Ph.D. in marketing and economics from Lincoln University His research interests include tourism economics, green marketing, hospitality management, service quality, customer satisfaction, and consumer behavior (E-mail: [email protected]).

Cheng-Feng Wu

Cheng-Feng Wu is an Associate Professor in School of Business, Wuchang University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. He receives his Ph.D. from National Taiwan University. His research interest includes supply risks, supply chain financing, small and medium-sized enterprises, patient safety, environment, empirical economics/studies in time-series, and questionnaire (E-mail: [email protected]).

Feng Chen

Feng Chen is a Research Assistant in Department of Finance at Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China. He is a currently an undergraduate student in finance. His research interests focus on loans, financial market, financial management, portfolio investment and data analytics (E-mail: [email protected]).

Su-Tsung Wu

Su-Tsung Wu is a Postdoctoral Fellow in School of Tourism Management at Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou City, China. He received his Ph.D. in tourism economics from Sun Yat-Sen University (E-mail: [email protected]).