Outbound Tourism Demand Modeling – Region Destination Approach: The Case of Vietnam’s Data

ABSTRACT

Although there have been several studies on international tourism demand, research on outbound tourism has not received as much attention, especially approaching destinations as a region (group of countries). This paper aims to establish outbound tourism demand modeling and determine the role of factors influencing this model. Using Vietnam’s data from 1995 to 2019, the study focuses on eleven main destination countries divided into three regions, namely Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and intercontinental. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for panel data and robustness tests was deployed and shows that population size and income per capita of the source country are important factors that determine the size of the outbound tourism market. Moreover, traveling abroad remains a luxury service for Vietnamese people, especially to countries in Northeast Asia. Prices also affect outbound tourism demand, but most demand is inelastic by own and cross prices. In addition, the study also pinpoints the competing destinations and complementary destinations for overseas travel trips by Vietnamese people.

摘要

尽管关于国际旅游需求已有一些研究, 但对于出境旅游的研究并没有受到太多关注, 特别是将目的地作为一个区域 (几个国家为集群) 来研究。本文旨在建立出境旅游需求模型并确定影响该模型因素之作用。本研究利用越南1995年至2019年的数据, 重点是把11个主要目的地国家分为三大区域, 即东南亚, 东北亚和洲际。使用了自回归分布式滞后模型 (ADLM) 的面板数据以及稳健性检验, 结果显示客源国的人口规模和人均收入是决定出境旅游市场规模的重要因素。此外, 出国旅游对越南人来说仍然是奢侈的服务, 尤其是去东北亚国家。价格也影响着出境旅游的需求, 但大多数需求对自身和交叉价格的影响缺乏弹性。此外, 本研究还指出越南人海外旅行的竞争性目的地和互补性目的地。

KEYWORD:

• Outbound tourism
• tourism demand
• modelling
• region destination
• panel ADLM approach

关键词:

• 出境旅游
• 旅游需求
• 建模
• 区域目的地
• 自回归分布式滞后模型
• 面板方法

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

This research was funded by University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, under grant number 4-2021.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Quang Hai Nguyen

Quang Hai Nguyen is Associate Professor of Business Administration Faculty at University of Economics and Law, VNU-HCM, Vietnam. His main research interests include economics, business and management in the air transport and tourism (E-mail: [email protected]).