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Original Articles

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan

Pages 67-77 | Received 29 Sep 2008, Accepted 02 Dec 2008, Published online: 10 Feb 2009

Abstract

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan was assessed utilising a proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar photovoltaic power plant. Long‐term (1994–2003) monthly average daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for 24 locations – distributed all over the country – were studied and analysed to assess the distribution of radiation and sunshine duration over Jordan, and formed an input to the RetScreen Software for evaluation and analysis of the proposed plant's electricity production and economic feasibility. It was found that depending on the geographical location, the global solar radiation on horizontal surface varied between 1.51 and 2.46 MWh/m2/year with an overall mean value of 2.01 MWh/m2/year for Jordan. The sunshine duration was found to vary, according to the location, between 8.47 and 9.68 hours/day, with a mean value of 9.07 hours/day and about 3311 sunshine hours annually for Jordan. The annual electricity production of the proposed plant varied depending on the location between 6.886 and 11.919 GWh/year, with a mean value of 9.46 GWh/year. The specific yield varied between 340.9 and 196.9 kWh/m2, while the mean value was 270.59 kWh/m2. Analysis of the annual electricity production of the plant, the specific yield, besides the economic indicators, i.e. internal rate of return, simple payback period, years to positive cash flow, net present value, annual life cycle saving, benefit/cost ratio, and cost of energy – for all sites – showed that Tafila and Karak are the most suitable sites for the solar photovoltaic power plant's development and Wadi Yabis is the worst. The results also showed that an average of 7414.9 tons of greenhouse gases can be avoided annually utilising the proposed plant for electricity generation at any part of Jordan.

1. Introduction

Energy is considered a prime agent in the generation of wealth, and a significant factor in economic development of the world's nations. The global demand for energy is rapidly increasing with increasing human population, urbanisation and modernisation and is projected to rise sharply over the coming years. Energy consumption in developed countries grows at a rate of approximately 1% per year, and at a rate of 5% per year in developing countries (Fanchi Citation2004).

The future demand for electricity – assessed from time to time by the International Energy Agency (IEA) – shows that the world's electricity consumption is expected almost to double by the year 2020 (IEA Citation2008).

Fossil fuels, which have been primarily the only source of energy contributing, presently, to 80% of the world's primary energy, are facing rapid deterioration, and appear to be insufficient to match the near future energy demands of the world. Moreover, fossil fuels inflict enormous impacts on the environment. Climatic changes driven by energy production – in particular the production of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – directly impact the environment. According to the world health organisation (WHO), as many as 160,000 people die each year from the side‐effects of climate change and the numbers could almost double by 2020 (WHO Citation2008). Therefore, meeting the rapidly increasing global energy needs, without irreparable environmental damage requires long‐term potential actions for sustainable development. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions (Koroneos et al. Citation2003, Kaygusuz and Sari Citation2003).

Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energies. Unlike conventional generation systems, solar photovoltaic (PV) energy systems generate electricity silently with little maintenance, no direct pollution or depletion of resources (Evrendilek and Ertekin Citation2003, Hepbasli et al. Citation2004, Benghanem and Joraid Citation2007). Therefore, it holds a good promise for worldwide electrical energy generation (Markvart and Kastaner Citation2003, Sorensen Citation2004). The interest in solar PV energy is growing worldwide. Today, more than 3500 MW of PV systems have been installed all over the world. Since 1970, the PV price has continuously dropped (Markvart Citation2002), which has encouraged worldwide application of PV systems. According to the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), the global production of solar PV cells increased 32% in 2003, ahead of the most recent 5‐year average of 27% a year. Production jumped to 742 MW, with cumulative world production of 3145 MW at the end of 2003 (EPI Citation2008).

In Jordan, the demand for electricity continued rising. In 2005, the total peak load was 1751 MW against 1555 MW in 2004, with a growth rate of 12.6%. The generated and imported electricity was 10636 million kWh in 2005 against 9793 million kWh in 2004, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Electricity consumption amounted to 8712 million kWh in 2005 against 8089 million kWh in 2004. The average annual growth rate of electricity consumption during the last five years amounted to 7.2%. The average per capita consumption of electricity was 1939 kWh in 2005 against 1830 kWh in 2004 (Jordanian National Electric Power Co Citation2005).

Although Jordan is endowed with abundant solar energy resource, most of the electricity, generated to serve different sectors of the country is produced from power plants that use fossil fuel. Ninety‐six per cent of this fuel, such as petroleum hydrocarbon fuel, is imported, and only 4% of which, such as natural gas, is locally produced (Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Citation2006). Share of renewable energies including solar PV in electricity production is marginal (Hrayshat and Al‐Soud Citation2004). In 2005, it did not exceed 1% of total electricity generation (Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Citation2006). Therefore, it is crucial for Jordan to develop its abundant solar energy source for electricity generation, not only to enhance energy supply security, while simultaneously promoting environmental protection values, but also to boost economic development.

Using 10 years (1994–2003) of measured global solar radiation (GSR) and sunshine duration (SSD) data from 24 widespread Jordanian locations, the distribution of GSR and SSD over Jordan has been presently undertaken. Moreover, this paper explores the viability of solar PV as an electricity generation source for Jordan employing a proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant, analysis of electricity production and economic feasibility of which have been performed utilising the RetScreen software (RetScreen Citation2008).

2. GSR and SSD over Jordan

The long‐term daily mean values of SSD and annual values of GSR on horizontal surface for Jordan are furnished in Table . The solar data presents the annual average GSR, calculated using records of monthly averages of daily values of GSR on horizontal surface, measured at 24 stations distributed all over the country for a period of 10 years.

Table 1. Daily mean values of sunshine duration, and annual values of global solar radiation on horizontal surface, measured at various sites in Jordan for the period 1994–2003.

The daily mean values of SSD were also calculated using records of monthly averages of daily values of SSD, measured at the aforementioned stations during the period 1994–2003.

As exhibited in Table , the GSR of the studied sites varies – depending on the geographical location – between 1.51 MWh/m2/year at Wadi Yabis and 2.46 MWh/m2/year at each of Tafila, Karak and Udruh. The highest annual values of GSR were observed in the southern part of Jordan, namely at Karak, Tafila, Udruh, Jafr and Queira, while the lowest annual values of GSR were observed in the northern part of Jordan, namely at Deir Alla, Baqura and Wadi Yabis. A moderate value of GSR compared with the rest of the sites was observed in the eastern part of the country, namely at Azraq, H‐4 and H‐5. The abundance of solar energy in Jordan is evident from the mean annual value of GSR on horizontal surface, which was found to be 2.01 MWh/m2/year.

The daily mean values of SSD also depend on the geographical location. It varies between a minimum of 8.47 hours at Wadi Yabis, located in the northern part of Jordan, and a maximum of 9.68 hours at each of Jafr and Queira, located in the southern part of the country.

Table exhibits the mean monthly variation of the long term recorded GSR at each station. The highest values of GSR during the year were observed in the summer months, while the lowest values of GSR were observed during the winter months. Among the studied locations, Tafila has the highest GSR value of 8.73 kWh/m2/year during the month of July. The lowest GSR value of 2.11 kWh/m2/year was recorded in Baqura during the month of December.

Figure illustrates the mean monthly variation of the recorded GSR for Jordan during the period 1994–2003. The highest values of GSR during the year were observed in the summer months with a maximum of 7.579 kWh /m2/year in June, followed by 7.5 kWh/m2/year in July. The lowest values of GSR were observed during the winter months with a minimum of 3.05 kWh/m2/year in December.

Figure 1 Mean monthly variation of the recorded global solar radiation for Jordan, 1994–2003.

Figure 1 Mean monthly variation of the recorded global solar radiation for Jordan, 1994–2003.

The mean monthly variation of the recorded SSD at each station is depicted in Figure . The highest values of SSD during the year were observed in the summer months, with a maximum of 12.46 hours in H‐4 during the month of July. The lowest values of SSD were observed during the winter months, with a minimum of 4.94 hours in Baq'aa during the month of December.

Figure 2 Mean monthly variation of the recorded sunshine duration at each station, 1994–2003.

Figure 2 Mean monthly variation of the recorded sunshine duration at each station, 1994–2003.

The mean monthly variation of the recorded SSD for Jordan is exhibited in Figure . Longer sun shine hours during the day were noticed in the summer months with a maximum of 12.16 hours in July, and shorter SSD during the day were noticed in the winter months with a minimum of 6.01 hours in December. The over all average value of SSD during the whole year in Jordan was found to be 9.07 hours/day and about 3311 sunshine hours annually.

Figure 3 Mean monthly variation of the recorded sunshine duration for Jordan, 1994–2003.

Figure 3 Mean monthly variation of the recorded sunshine duration for Jordan, 1994–2003.

Since the demand on electricity in Jordan is highest during the summer months (Jordanian National Electric Power Co Citation2005), and as revealed by Tables  and in addition to Figures , that the highest values of both GSR and SSD hours occur during the summer months, electricity generation by means of the proposed grid‐connected solar PV power plant is advantageous, viable and of vital importance to supplement the national electricity grid, especially during the peak load periods.

Table 2. Mean monthly variation of the recorded global solar radiation at each station, 1994–2003.

3. The proposed 5 MW solar PV power plant

The proposed solar PV power plant, which is a grid‐connected system with 5 MW installed capacity, consists of 55,556 fixed (no tracking) modules with a total area of 34,965 m2. The modules are inclined at an angle equal to the site latitude and south facing. The azimuth angle was taken as zero for all the studied sites. Table shows the module's specifications.

Table 3. PV module specifications.

Direct current into alternating current (DC/AC) inverters were utilised in the proposed power plant to convert DC into AC to feed the grid. They have an efficiency of 95% and a total capacity of 4,750 kW.

4. Results and discussion

The site conditions, i.e. site latitude, monthly mean values of GSR on horizontal surface, and monthly mean temperature in addition to the solar PV power plant's specifications and parameters form an input to the RetScreen software to perform an economic feasibility analysis and calculate the specific yield (SY), energy produced by the plant and the GHG emissions, avoided when using the plant for electricity generation instead of plants operating on the conventional fuels.

4.1 Electricity generation

The annual amount of electricity generation, which is the amount of equivalent DC electrical energy actually delivered by the proposed grid‐connected 5 MW solar PV power plant to the utility, was calculated for all the 24 locations, and the results are exhibited in Figure . The highest production was obtained form Karak, Tafila and Udruh power plants. Their production was close to each other, and equal to 11.919, 11.094 and 11.882 GWh/year respectively. The lowest production was obtained from Wadi Yabis power plant with an annual production of 6.886 GWh/year. For Jordan about 9.46 GWh/year of electricity can be generated by means of the proposed plant at any part of the country.

Figure 4 Annual electricity generated by the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for all the selected sites.

Figure 4 Annual electricity generated by the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for all the selected sites.

4.2 SY

The SY, which depends on PV array technology type, climatic conditions, latitude, power conditioning efficiency and losses, was calculated as the electricity generated by the proposed solar PV plant over one year, divided by the PV array area. Figure presents the specific energy yield for all the 24 locations. The highest SY of 340.9, 340.5 and 339.8 kWh/m2 were observed in Karak, Tafila and Udruh respectively. The lowest value of SY of 196.9 kWh/m2 was observed in Wadi Yabis. The mean value of the SY obtained from the 24 power plants was observed to be 270.59 kWh/m2.

Figure 5 Specific yield of the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for all the selected sites.

Figure 5 Specific yield of the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for all the selected sites.

4.3 Economic feasibility analysis

The economic feasibility analysis was performed – using data of the initial costs associated with the implementation of the proposed solar PV power plant and the interest rates, furnished in Table – to determine the internal rate of return (IRR), simple payback period (SPP), years to positive cash flow (YPCF), net present value (NPV), annual life cycle saving (ALCS), benefit/cost (B/C) ratio and cost of energy (COE). The monetary data were expressed in Jordanian Dinar (JD), where 1 JD = 1000 Fils (F)≈1.41 US$.

Table 4. Interest rates used in the economical feasibility analysis.

The major categories of the initial cost include costs for preparing a feasibility study, performing the project development functions, completing the necessary engineering, purchasing and installing the energy equipment, construction of the balance of equipment and costs for any other miscellaneous items. Table summarises these data. The largest portion of the fund (70.6%) accounts for the energy equipment, followed by the balance of the plant cost (26.8%), which includes the PV arrays support structure, the inverter, and various electrical components such as fuses, switches, conductors and conduit. In addition, the installation labour for the entire PV plant and for the various components is included under this section.

Table 5. Initial and periodic costs of the solar PV power plant.

4.3.1 IRR

Internal rate of return represents the true interest yield provided by the project equity over its life. It is also referred to as the return on investment or the time‐adjusted rate of return and calculated by finding the discount rate that causes the net present value of the project to be equal to zero. If IRR is equal to or greater than the required rate of return then the development of the solar PV power plant will likely be considered financially acceptable.

figure 6() shows the calculated IRR for all the 24 locations. The maximum IRR of 20.1% was observed in Tafila and Karak, while the minimum IRR of 6.2% was obtained for Wadi Yabis. On an average, an IRR of 12.99% can be obtained from any location in Jordan.

Figure 6 Economic indicators for all sites.

Figure 6 Economic indicators for all sites.

4.3.2 SPP and YPCF

Simple payback period, which represents the length of time that it takes the project to recoup its own initial cost, out of the cash receipts it generates, is calculated using the total initial costs, the total annual costs (excluding debt payments) and the total annual savings. The calculation is based on pre‐tax amounts and includes any initial cost incentives. The basic premise of the payback method is that the more quickly the cost of an investment can be recovered, the more desirable is the investment.

Calculation of YPCF, which represents the length of time that it takes a project to recoup its initial investment out of the project cash flows generated, was performed utilising the year number and the cumulative after‐tax cash flows, and considering the project cash flows following the first year as well as the leverage (level of debt) of the project.

figure 6() illustrates the SPP and YPCF for all the locations. The lowest values of SPP and YPCF were equal to 2.3 and 4.6 years respectively. They were observed in each of Tafila, Karak and Udruh. The highest values of SPP (4 years) and YPCF (15 years) were observed in Wadi Yabis. For Jordan an average of both SPP which equals to 2.96 years, and YPCF equal to 8.7 years can be achieved at any location.

4.3.3 NPV

Net present value of the project, which is the value of all future cash flows, discounted at the discount rate is calculated. Under the NPV method, the present value of all cash inflows is compared against the present value of all cash outflows associated with an investment project. Net present value, which is the difference between the present value of these cash flows, determines whether or not the project is generally a financially acceptable investment. Positive NPV values are an indicator of a potentially feasible project.

figure 6() summarises the results of NPV calculation for the selected locations. The highest NPV values of about 28.65, 28.58 and 28.46 million JDs were obtained for Karak, Tafila and Udruh respectively. The lowest NPV value of about 2.59 million JDs was obtained at Wadi Yabis.

4.3.4 ALCS

Annual life cycle saving which is the levelised nominal yearly savings having exactly the same life and net present value as the project was calculated. The results of ALCS calculation – performed using the net present value, the discount rate and the project life – for all the locations are exhibited in figure 6(). The highest values of ALCS were obtained at Karak, Tafila and Udruh. They were equal to about 2.0332, 2.028, 2.0196 million JDs respectively. The lowest ALCS value of about 0.184 million JDs was obtained at Wadi Yabis.

4.3.5 B/C ratio

The net B/C ratio, which is the ratio of the net benefits to costs of the proposed plant, was calculated. Net benefits represent the present value of annual revenues (or savings) less annual costs, while the cost is defined as the project equity. Ratios greater than 1 are indicative of profitable projects.

figure 6() shows the B/C ratio for the 24 sites. The highest B/C value of 3.02 was obtained for each of Karak, Tafila. The lowest B/C value of 1.18 was obtained for Wadi Yabis. On an average, a B/C of about 2.12 can be obtained from any location in Jordan.

4.3.6 COE

Calculation of COE per kWh, defined as the avoided cost of energy required for the project to break‐even, was performed assuming that all financial parameters other than the avoided cost of energy are kept constant. Figure shows COE produced by means of the proposed plant at all locations. It varies between a minimum of 90 F/kWh at Tafila and a maximum of 270 F/kWh at Wadi Yabis. In Jordan, on average, COE equal to 166.25 F/kWh can be obtained at any location.

Figure 7 Cost of electrical energy produced by the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant at all locations.

Figure 7 Cost of electrical energy produced by the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant at all locations.

4.4 GHG emission mitigation

Greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3) and several classes of halo carbons. Greenhouse gases allow solar radiation to enter the Earth's atmosphere, but prevent the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface from escaping. Instead, this outgoing radiation is absorbed by the GHG and then partially re‐emitted as thermal radiation back to Earth, warming the surface. Greenhouse gases that are most relevant to energy projects' analysis are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O); these gases were considered in GHG emission reduction analysis.

Calculation of the annual reduction in GHG emissions – estimated to occur if the proposed 5 MW solar PV power plant is implemented – was performed. The calculation is based on emission factors of both the proposed solar PV power plant and plants operating on the conventional fuels in addition to the end‐use energy delivered by the solar PV power plant on an annual basis.

Figure illustrates the avoided GHG emissions as a result of utilising the proposed plant for electricity generation at the 24 locations. The highest GHG emissions mitigation of 9338.19 and 9327.11 tons/year were observed in Karak and Tafila respectively. The lowest reduction of GHG emissions was observed in Wadi Yabis with a value of 5394.92 tons/year. For Jordan, installing the proposed 5 MW solar PV power plant at any location will lead to mitigation of about 7414.9 tons of GHG emissions annually.

Figure 8 GHG emissions mitigation as a result of utilising the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for electricity generation at all locations.

Figure 8 GHG emissions mitigation as a result of utilising the proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plant for electricity generation at all locations.

5. Conclusions

Based on the listed factors below, favourable development of the proposed grid‐connected 5 MW solar PV power plant for electricity generation in Jordan in general and in Tafila and Karak in particular was observed, while Wadi Yabis was found to be the most unfavourable site:

The abundance of GSR, which varied between a minimum of 1.51 MWh/m2/year at Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 2.46 MWh/m2/year at each of Tafila, Karak and Udruh, with an overall mean value of 2.01 MWh/m2/year for Jordan.

The daily mean values of SSD, which varied between a minimum of 8.47 hours at Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 9.58 hours at each of Karak, Tafila and Udruh, with an overall mean value of 9.07 hours/day and about 3311 sunshine hours annually for Jordan.

Annual electricity generation of the proposed power plant, which varied between a minimum of 6.886 GWh/year at Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 11.919 and 11.094 GWh/year at Karak and Tafila respectively, with an overall mean value of 9.46 GWh/year for Jordan.

Specific yield, which varied between a minimum of 196.9 kWh/m2 at Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 340.9 and 340.5 kWh/m2 Karak and Tafila respectively, with an overall mean value of 270.59 kWh/m2 for Jordan.

The economic indicator IRR, which varied between a minimum of 6.2% for Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 20.1% for each of Tafila and Karak with an overall mean value of 12.99% for Jordan.

The economic indicator SPP, which varied between a minimum of 2.3 years for each of Tafila and Karak and a maximum of 4 years for Wadi Yabis with an overall mean value of 2.96 years for Jordan.

The economic indicator YPCF, which varied between a minimum of 4.6 years for each of Tafila and Karak and a maximum of 15 years for Wadi Yabis with an overall mean value of 8.7 years for Jordan.

The economic indicator NPV, which varied between a minimum of 2.59 million JDs for Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 28.65, 28.58 million JDs for Tafila and Karak respectively.

The economic indicator ALCS, which varied between a minimum of 0.184 million JDs for Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 2.0332 and 2.028 million JDs for Tafila and Karak respectively.

The economic indicator B/C ratio which varied between a minimum of 1.18 for Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 3.02 for each of Tafila and Karak, with an overall mean value of about 2.12 for Jordan.

The economic indicator COE, which varied between a minimum of 90 F/kWh for Tafila and a maximum of 270 F/kWh for Wadi Yabis with an overall mean value of 166.25 F/kWh for Jordan.

The avoided GHG emissions, which varied between a minimum of 5394.92 tons/year for Wadi Yabis and a maximum of 9338.19 and 9327.11 tons/year for Karak and Tafila respectively, with an overall mean value of 7414.9 tons/year for Jordan.

A pilot 5 MW grid‐connected solar PV power plants should be installed at each of Karak and Tafila in order to supplement the electricity grid, especially during the peak load periods, and studying the system performance under real Jordanian conditions should be carried out. These two issues will be discussed thoroughly in a forthcoming paper.

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