Did Billboard, Cash Box, and Record World Charts Tell the Same Story? Perception and Reality, 1960-1979

ABSTRACT

Billboard, Cash Box, and Record World had different reputations regarding the way they ranked records in their weekly charts; however, no systematic statistical analysis has been done to test those perceptions. This paper reports such a statistical analysis of chart behavior of 4,578 record sides, each with a unique and complete chart lifecycle, peaking at position 1–40 in all three magazines. Comparison was done at three levels: magazine, record, and year/decade. The magazines were found to have statistically significant differences of fractions of a week in some components of record lifecycle (rise, peak, fall, and length of time on the charts); however, those differences are not large enough to be perceived in chart behavior, where data granularity is one week. There are significant and perceptible differences, however, between the 1960s and 1970s, due largely to the differences in the number of chart entries. At record level, Billboard tended to score the highest-ranked records slightly higher than the other two magazines. Approximately 1.5% of the records show one magazine scoring the record significantly differently than the other two. Only fractional-week differences were found among the magazines in Entry, Peak, and Exit dates. Thus, on a macro basis, the magazines tended to tell the same story; on a micro basis they could tell very different stories for reasons that are not obvious.

KEYWORDS:

• Billboard
• Cash Box
• Record World
• statistics
• ranking
• analytics

Note

¹ Least Square Mean (LSM) is a statistic measuring central tendency similar to an average. However, LSM arises out of the kind of multiple linear regression done with this dataset. For a rigorous definition of LSM in the context of the JMP statistical software, see “The Method of Least Squares.”

Acknowledgments

This paper is dedicated to the memory of Professor Peter Hesbacher–in this author’s opinion, the father of modern chartology. Acknowledgment to Randy Price for transcription of Cash Box charts and personal communication of a few needed Record World charts.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

William F. Carroll

William F. Carroll is an industrial chemist and Adjunct Professor of Chemistry at Indiana University, Bloomington. He is a past president of the American Chemical Society, the world’s largest single-discipline scientific organization. After a career that included numerous scientific publications, he returned to his first love: popular music, charts, and Top 40 radio, using statistics and physical science data-reduction techniques to develop music chart analytics.