Can increased accessibility from emerging mobility services create a car-lite future? Evidence from Singapore using LUTI microsimulation

ABSTRACT

Emerging mobility services are being increasingly regulated, with several cities testing car-lite policy interventions in pilot study areas before a metro-wide implementation. This study uses an agent-based LUTI microsimulation model to examine the effect of accessibility improvements on private mobility holdings, both directly and through the mediating effect of housing choice. Different market responses to acar-lite pilot are modeled through various assumptions of changes in model parameters. Three study areas with different characteristics are chosen to explore the spatial variation in policy effects. Our findings indicate that in-movers are more likely to be higher-income households with a comparatively higher car ownership rate. Unintended negative consequences like gentrification can significantly undermine the potential boosts to vehicle-free behavior inside the study area. As a possible step to mitigate such consequences, we suggest that emerging mobility regulation strategies anticipate and address the likely response of the housing market and urban redevelopment opportunities.

KEYWORDS:

• Emerging mobility services
• accessibility
• housing market
• residential location
• mobility holdings
• vehicle ownership
• agent-based microsimulation
• land use-transport interaction (LUTI) model

Acknowledgments

We appreciate the contributions of past and present members of the SimMobility team, and thank the three anonymous referees whose comments helped us improve the presentation of our ideas.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. https://www.clc.gov.sg/research-publications/publications/urban-systems-studies/view/creating-liveable-cities-through-car-lite-urban-mobility.

2. The COE quota is capped to keep annual vehicle growth rates below 2%. 10-year COEs are made available at monthly auctions with prices ranging from 2,000 to 10,000 USD/year over the past decade.

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded in part by the Singapore National Research Foundation through the Future Urban Mobility group at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology Center.