Activity-based integrated modelling for assessing COVID-19 impacts on transport operations and emissions

ABSTRACT

This study combines an integrated transport, land-use, and energy (iTLE) modeling system with traffic microsimulation model and emission simulator for a holistic analysis of COVID-19 pandemic related changes in traffic flows and emissions. An activity-based travel demand model within iTLE informs pandemic traffic operation scenarios for traffic microsimulation modeling. Link-based simulation outputs inform a finer-grained emission estimation process within a MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator. Results suggest that the overall network performance improves during lockdown as average delays and queue time decrease by 42.04% and 5.9% respectively compared to pre-COVID condition. Emission results reveal that GHG emissions significantly decrease (64%) in lockdown while it starts increasing gradually in post-pandemic period. Link-based emission analysis indicates that major arterial streets achieve a significant reduction in air pollutant emission. The findings of this study will help transportation planners, engineers, and policymakers to devise effective policies for the improvement of transport operations and emissions.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• traffic microsimulation
• GHG emission
• integrated transport
• Land-Use and energy model

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the contributions from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) - Discovery Grant and the COVID-19 Alliance Grant for this research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Author contribution statement

The authors verify contribution to the research as follows: study conception and design: M. J. Alam, M. A. H. Anik, H. Shahrier, M. A. Habib; data collection: M. J. Alam, H. Shahrier, M. A. H. Anik, M. A. Habib; analysis and interpretation of results: M. J. Alam, M. A. H. Anik, H. Shahrier, M. A. Habib; draft manuscript preparation: M. J. Alam, H. Shahrier, M. A. H. Anik; M. A. Habib. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.