The impact of bus punctuality on users’ decisions and welfare

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a public transport users’ scheduling model that considers crowding inside vehicles, waiting time, and punctuality as a reliability measure. Commuters simultaneously make two choices: the preferred bus and the timing to arrive at the bus stop (on time or late). Public transport punctuality is the probability of being on time or late, generating a parameter of public transport reliability. We compute users’ equilibrium, social optimum, and first-best pricing and analytically devise a methodology to obtain the second-best pricing. Using numerical analysis, we show that (i) punctuality plays an essential role in the commuter strategy modifying according to its level, (ii) commuters’ strategy changes according to how reliable the system is, and (iii) second-best pricing is efficient only for limited cases.

KEYWORDS:

• Public transport
• reliability
• punctuality
• user equilibrium

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Authors’ contribution

Fernando Feres: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, writing original draft, visualization. Franco Basso: conceptualization, writing original draft, funding acquisition. Raúl Pezoa: conceptualization, visualization, writing review & editing. Mauricio Varas: conceptualization, visualization, writing review & editing. Eusebio Vargas-Estrada: conceptualization, writing review & editing, funding acquisition.

Declarations

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

Fernando Feres thanks a grant fromScience, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation Ministry of Chile [FONDECYTPostdoctoral Grant 3220276]. Franco Basso gratefully acknowledges the financialsupport from both the Complex Engineering Systems Institute, ISCI [grant ANIDPIA/BASAL AFB180003] and a grant from Science, Technology, Knowledge, andInnovation Ministry of Chile [FONDECYT Project 11200167]. Raúl Pezoa thanksdoctoral scholarship to ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2018-21181528. MauricioVaras thanks a grant from Science, Technology, Knowledge, and InnovationMinistry of Chile [FONDECYT Project 11190892].