Do floodplain regulation projects increase vulnerability to poverty of resettlers? Recent evidence from downstream Yellow River, China

ABSTRACT

This paper measures the poverty level of resettlers in the floodplains of the downstream Yellow River before and after resettlement. The Shapley value decomposition method is used to measure the influence of various factors on vulnerability to poverty, and the difference-in-differences model is used to analyse the impact of different resettlement modes on vulnerability to poverty. The results show that relocation greatly increases the risk of poverty for some resettlers. Higher education levels, physical health, and strong labour ability help reduce vulnerability to poverty. Differences in income, education level, and the health status of families are the primary causes of poverty risk.

KEYWORDS:

• Vulnerability to poverty
• development
• China
• floodplain regulation project
• resettlement
• Shapley value decomposition

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation of China and the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science project. We also thank the Yellow River Bureau of Henan Province for their support in data collection, research support, and valuable comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The regulation project of the downstream Yellow River floodplain area was one of the major water conservancy projects initiated by the Chinese government in 2015. The project involved Henan and Shandong provinces. According to the Chinese government news website data, this project involves the relocation of 1.254 million permanent residents in the Yellow River floodplain areas of Henan Province and 600,000 permanent residents of Shandong Province.

2. Sourced from official statistics of China National Bureau of Statistics in 2016 and 2018. The data is authoritative.

3. Mu is a unit of urban land in China. One mu is equal to 60 square feet, approximately 666.667 metres. Fifteen acres are equal to one hectare.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education Foundation of Humanities and Social Sciences of China (19YJCZH264), the Major Program of National Social Foundation of China (19ZDA089), and the Open Fund of Research Center for Reservoir Resettlement (CTGU) (2020KF06).

Notes on contributors

Xu Zhao

Xu Zhao is an associate professor in the School of Economics and Management at China Three Gorges University, deputy director of Research Center for Reservoir Resettlement (CTGU). His research focuses on regional sustainable development, follow-up livelihood monitoring of reservoir resettlement, and ecological resettlement.

Yinlan Chen

Yinlan Chen is studying for a master's degree in the School of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University. Her research focuses on regional sustainable development, livelihood issues of resettlers, and resource ecological management.

Yuefang Duan

Yuefang Duan is a professor in the School of Economics and Management at China Three Gorges University, director of Research Center for Reservoir Resettlement (CTGU). His research focuses on engineering resettlement theory and policy, resettlement and regional development.