Uncertainty analysis of the use of a retailer fidelity card scheme in the assessment of food additive intake

Abstract

The feasibility of using a retailer fidelity card scheme to estimate food additive intake was investigated in an earlier study. Fidelity card survey information was combined with information provided by the retailer on levels of the food colour Sunset Yellow (E110) in the foods to estimate a daily exposure to the additive in the Swiss population. As with any dietary exposure method the fidelity card scheme is subject to uncertainties and in this paper the impact of uncertainties associated with input variables including the amounts of food purchased, the levels of E110 in food, the proportion of food purchased at the retailer, the rate of fidelity card usage, the proportion of foods consumed outside of the home and bodyweights and with systematic uncertainties was assessed using a qualitative, deterministic and probabilistic approach. An analysis of the sensitivity of the results to each of the probabilistic inputs was also undertaken. The analysis identified the key factors responsible for uncertainty within the model and demonstrated how the application of some simple probabilistic approaches can be used quantitatively to assess uncertainty.

Keywords:

• exposure – probability modelling
• exposure assessment
• exposure modelling
• risk assessment
• additives general
• colours
• bakery products
• beverages
• confectionary

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank MIGROS for facilitating this study, and Creme Software and ERASM for data analysis and interpretation. This work was commissioned by the Food Intake Methodology Task Force of the European branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI Europe). Industry members of this task force are Ajinomoto Europe, DSM, Firmenich, Givaudan, McNeil Nutritionals, Nestlé and Unilever. For further information about ILSI Europe, call [phone] or email [email protected]. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ILSI Europe nor those of its member companies. Disclosure Statement: For those experts affiliated with academic institutions, ILSI Europe covered their expenses related to their participation in Expert Group meetings, and an honorarium was provided. None of the authors declares any interests that may conflict with the provision of their solely scientific input to the report.