530
Views
14
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms

, , &
Pages 1630-1646 | Received 01 Jun 2011, Accepted 16 Jul 2012, Published online: 24 Aug 2012
 

Abstract

Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change—according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario – on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984–2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.

Acknowledgements

The authors kindly thank the national funders of the EMTOX project from the Netherlands (the Dutch Ministry for Economic Affairs, Agriculture & Innovation), as well as the project Advisory Board, with representatives from (among others) the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority. The authors would like to thank Anouk Blauw, Hans Los, and Xavier Desmit for their helpful suggestions throughout the course of the project.

Log in via your institution

Log in to Taylor & Francis Online

PDF download + Online access

  • 48 hours access to article PDF & online version
  • Article PDF can be downloaded
  • Article PDF can be printed
USD 61.00 Add to cart

Issue Purchase

  • 30 days online access to complete issue
  • Article PDFs can be downloaded
  • Article PDFs can be printed
USD 799.00 Add to cart

* Local tax will be added as applicable

Related Research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.