Development of water quality forecasting system with ensemble stream prediction method in the Geum River Basin, Korea

Abstract

The accurate prediction of the water quality of a river is very important in identifying instream flow and water supply requirements and solving relevant environmental problems. The purpose of the study is to develop a water quality forecasting system for the Geum River in Korea. The water quality forecasting system was composed with the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) for watershed runoff simulation and Qual2E for calculation of river quality. The SSARR model was improved by applying the Optimal Linear Correction method and was also used to predict probabilistic streamflow with the ensemble stream prediction. The water quality forecasting system was validated with data measured at the Geum River Basin in 2007 and 2008. As the results, it was found that the proposed model simulated the values of BOD, T-N, and T-P within acceptable reliability. The developed system will contribute to various prediction of water, and improvement of current water quality management practice.

Keywords:

• Water quality forecasting system
• SSARR
• Qual2E
• Ensemble stream prediction