Using accurate demand forecasting to improve the efficiency of water supply-distribution chains

Abstract

The efficient management of water supply-distribution systems requires the use of water demand forecasts so as to optimize the use of the resources involved (primarily water and energy) and minimize related costs. Particularly for operational water management, forecasting needs to be: (i) sensitive to rapidly changing factors (usually related to the water system management conditions), (ii) of a high level of accuracy and (iii) of high temporal resolution. Such a demand forecasting methodology, suitable for short-term water supply-distribution and management, has been developed and it is presented in this article, using the “similar days” approach. The method is based on the principle that “similar” days have similar consumption patterns. Similarity of any two days is judged by estimating a “day similarity index,” which is a composite measure of the difference of the day’s sets of common day attributes (such as the day of week, weather conditions, special events, etc.). The methodology is applied in two case studies, aimed at improving entirely different management procedures: (i) water pump operations at the distribution network of the city of Karlsruhe (Germany) and ii) water resource allocation for the metropolitan area of Barcelona (Spain), respectively. The case study applications confirm that the methodology is easily configurable, it fits well for quite different water management cases, and small forecasting errors can be achieved using readily available data.

Keywords:

• Water demand management
• Demand forecasting
• Similar days approach
• Water demand drivers

Acknowledgements

This work has been financed by the EU-funded FP7 WatERP project (Grant agreement no: 318603). The authors would like to thank partners from Water Catalan Agency (ACA), Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas-und Wasserfaches (DVGW) and Stadtwerke Karlsruhe GmbH (SWKA) for the provision of the data used in the analysis.

Notes

Presented at the 12th International Conference on Protection and Restoration of the Environment (PRE XII) 29 June–3 July 2014, Skiathos Island, Greece