Chapter One: Sources of conflict

Abstract

Latin American countries embraced liberal democracy as the antidote to the past ills of military dictatorships, human-rights abuses and extreme poverty. Yet, more than twenty years on, states are still embroiled in armed combat with rebels who export their violence and traffic drugs across borders, threatening to draw neighbouring states into conflict with one another. Throughout the region, there is a tendency to supplement diplomatic action with military posturing. As ideological rivalries reassert themselves and competition for resources increases, so does the risk that political confrontation may once again get out of hand and destabilise regional relations.

The regional security architecture is not well-suited to controlling these risks, and neither the US nor rising power Brazil is playing the role of regional mediator. Though few incidents have escalated into war over the last two decades, the shifting regional power balance, together with a rise in authoritarian government and growth in defence spending, give cause for concern. This Adelphi analyses the sources of inter-state conflict in Latin America and the potential policy options to tackle the region's cycle of instability.

Notes

Robert L. Scheina, History of Latin America's Wars, vol. 2 (Dulles, VA: Brassey's, 2003).

‘Peru Accepts Ecuador Maritime Borders, Much to Chile's Chagrin’, MercoPress, 4 May 2011.

Daniel Ok, ‘Bolivia/Chile Pacific Access’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 24 June 2011, http://www.coha.org/boliviachile-pacific-access/.

Leo Palmer, ‘Nicaragua Threatens Military Action Against Colombia’, Colombia Reports, 26 July 2010, http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/10999-nicaragua-threatensmilitary-action-against-colombia.html.

This was the justification for many of the military-run ‘national security states’ of the 1960s and 1970s.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies, The FARC Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of ‘Raúl Reyes’ (London: IISS, 2011).

Michael Shifter, ‘The Chávezjad Doctrine: Between Myth and Speculation’, Poder, 5 January 2010.

Cynthia Arnson, Haleh Esfandiari, and Adam Stubits (eds), Iran in Latin America: Threat or ‘Axis of Annoyance’? (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, n.d.).

Robin Yapp, ‘Iran Defence Minister Forced to Leave Bolivia over 1994 Argentina Bombing’, Telegraph, 1 June 2011.

Matthew Stabley, ‘Iranian Faction Plotted to Kill Saudi Ambassador: Holder’, NBC Washington, 13 October 2011.

See the accusations of Iranian terrorist links, including some made by former US government officials, at www.InterAmericanSecurityWatch.com.

Peter Griffiths, ‘UK's Brown Says Talks will End Falklands Oil Row’, Reuters, 18 February 2010.

‘Caracas, Trinidad Reach Border Fields Accord’, Oil & Gas Journal, 12 March 2007, p. 8.

‘Brazil's Oil Boom: Filling Up the Future’, Economist, 5 November 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/21536570.

The Military Balance 2012, p. 367.

Augusto Varas, Claudio Fuentes y Felipe Agüero, Instituciones cautivas. Opinión pública y nueva legitimidad social de las Fuerzas Armadas (Santiago: FLACSO-Catalonia, 2008), p. 66.

Bolivia lost territory on three occasions. In 1883, as a consequence of its defeat by Chile in the War of the Pacific (1879–83), Bolivia lost its maritime province, and with it significant wealth generated by the guano deposits. Between 1899 and 1903, Bolivia's central government forces skirmished with Brazilian adventurers seeking to lay claim to the rubber-rich Acre province, but were forced to sell the territory when Brazil dispatched troops to the area. In the Chaco War (1932–35) 65,000 Bolivians were killed and the country lost US$200 million and its claim to extensive territory, mistakenly believed to have large oil deposits, to Paraguay. See. Mares, Violent Peace, pp. 62–72.

Raúl Zibechi, ‘Ecuador: The Battle for Natural Resources Deepens’, Americas Program, Center for International Policy, 26 October 2009, available at http://www.americas.irconline.com.

International Court of Justice, ‘Summary of the Judgment of 13 December 2007, Territorial and Maritime Dispute (Nicaragua v. Colombia), Preliminary Objections’, http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/124/14325.pdf.

‘Peru–Chile Border Row Escalates’, BBC News, 4 November 2005; Simon Romero, ‘Peru: Officer Says He Spied For Chile’, New York Times, 18 November 2009, p. A 8.

Diego González, ‘Lugo's Dilemmas’, Americas Program, Center for International Policy, 26 September 2009, available at http://www.americas.irc-online.com; ‘Senate Approves Payment Rise for Itaipu Energy’, Government of Brazil, Senado Federal, Portal de Noticias, 13 May 2011, www.senado.gov.br/noticias/agencia/ internacional/en/not_1293.aspx.

Raúl Zibechi, ‘Is Brazil Creating Its Own “Backyard”?’, Zibechi Report, no. 12, 3 February 2009 , Americas Program, Center for International Policy, available at http://www.americas.irconline.com; see ‘US Embassy Cables: Washington Worries that Paraguay Harbours Iranian Agents and Islamist Terrorists’, Guardian, 28 October 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/147040..

Ibid.; Kelly Hearn, ‘China Plants Bitter Seeds in South American Farmland’, Washington Times, 1 February 2012.

Raúl Zibechi, ‘The Soybean Crop in Uruguay: The Creation of a Power Block’, Americas Program, Center for International Policy, 8 July 2007, available at http://www.americas.irconline.com.

Sara Miller Llana, ‘Across Much of Latin America, Inflation is the Top Issue’, Christian Science Monitor 20 May 2008, p. 6.

Kari Hamerschlag, ‘The Bolivia–Brazil Pipeline: A “Model” Project?’, Bank Information Center, 10 December 2003, http://www.bicusa.org/en/Article.454.aspx.

Zeibechi, ‘Is Brazil Creating Its Own “Backyard”?’.

Sean Johnson, ‘Venezuela–Colombia Relations in Limbo: Will Chávez Burn the Bridge?’, Council On Hemispheric Affairs, 7 August 2009.

US Department of State, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report 2009, ‘Mexico II: Status of Country’, p. 414, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/120054.pdf.

Richard A. Serrano, ‘Guns from U.S. Equip Drug Cartels’, Los Angeles Times, 10 August 2008.

Rachel Stohl and Doug Tuttle, ‘Small Arms Trade in Latin America’, NACLA Report on the Americas, March–April 2008, p. 20.

.Juan O. Tamayo, ‘FARC Rebels’ Missile Purchase Raises Concerns', Miami Herald, 16 February 2010.

Kaitlin Porter, ‘Stateless in the Dominican Republic’, Council On Hemispheric Affairs, 12 August 2009.

Juan Forero, ‘Another Bump in a Rocky Road for Colombia and Venezuela’, New York Times, 30 November 2000, p. A12.

Laura Carlsen, ‘Mexico's Immigration Problem also a “Red Flag” at Home’, Americas Program, 3 December 2008; Suzana Shepard-Durni, ‘Mexico's Other Border: Issues Affecting Mexico's Dividing Line with Guatemala’, Council On Hemispheric Affairs, 12 September 2008.

‘General: Peru Formally Presents Its Ocean-Borders Case Against Chile at The Hague’, NotiSur, 2 August 2008.

.Cristina Albertin, ‘Encountering Human Trafficking in Bolivia’ (Geneva: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 9 June 2008), http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/encountering-human-trafficking-inbolivia.html.

Latin American Economic System, Migrations and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Intraregional Flows and Macroeconomic Determinants (Caracas: SELA Secretariat, 2005).

Stephen Johnson and David B. Muhlhausen, ‘North American Transnational Youth Gangs: Breaking the Chain of Violence’, Backgrounder, No. 1834, The Heritage Foundation, 21 March 2005; Leah Chavla, ‘FARQaeda* (FARC + Al Qaeda): A Real Threat or a Matter of Circumstantial Evidence?’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 3 February 2010.

There is a great deal of scepticism concerning the alleged plot. Sara Miller Llana, ‘Iran Assassination Plot: Terrorists Join Forces with Mexican Drug Cartels?’, Christian Science Monitor, 11 October 2011.

Univision, ‘La Amenaza Iraní’, 9 December 2011, http://noticias.univision.com/documentales/la-amenaza-irani/article/2011-12-09/la-amenaza-irani#axzz1hrZ0Ar4P.

‘RayWalser onIranian Influence inLatin America: Heritage in Focus Podcast’, Heritage Foundation, recorded on 13 December 2011, http://www.heritage.org/multimedia/audio/2011/12/walser-podcast-12-13-11.

Samuel Rubenfeld, ‘FATF Lauds Argentina Anti-Terror Financing Efforts, Seeks More Progress’, Wall Street Journal, 17 February 2012.

‘Farc Kills 11 Colombian Soldiers’, Irish Times, 18 March 2012, http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0318/breaking43.html.

See Elyssa Pachico, ‘Panama FARC Camps Highlight Need for Joint Security Work with Colombia’, InSight Crime, 29 March 2012, http://insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/2416-panama-farc-campshighlight-need-for-joint-securitywork-with-colombia; Marcella, War Without Borders; Nelza Oliveira, ‘FARC Trafficking Drugs in Brazil, Officials Say’, 7 June 2010, Infosurhoy.com, http://infosurhoy.com/cocoon/saii/xhtml/en_GB/features/saii/features/main/2010/06/07/feature-02.

Mark Burgess, ‘Globalizing Terrorism: The FARC–IRA Connection’, Center for Defense Information, 5 June 2002, http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/farc-ira.cfm.

Simon Romero, ‘Leaders of Venezuela and Colombia, Ideological Opposites, Are Tightening Ties’, New York Times 19 October 2007, p. 13.

Larry Birns and Jessica Bryant, ‘Chávez's Blockbuster Proposal: Finally the Right Message for Peace’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 10 June 2008, http://www.coha.org/chavez_E2_80_99s-blockbusterproposal-finally-the-right-messagefor-peace/.

Romero, ‘Leaders of Venezuela and Colombia, Ideological Opposites, Are Tightening Ties’.

‘Peru – Sendero Luminoso attacks military base’, Latin News Daily Report, 22 November 2011, http://latinnews.com/component/k2/item/49267.html?period=2011&archive=2&cat_id=786633_3Aperu-E2_80_93-senderoluminoso-attacks-military-base; ‘Artemio’ reconoció que Sendero Luminoso fue derrotado’, El Comercio.pe, 6 December 2011; Elyssa Pachico, ‘Military Statistics Suggest Shining Path Growing in Numbers’, InSightCrime.org, 23 December 2011, http://insightcrime.org/component/k2/item/2013-military-statistics-suggestshining-path-growing-in-numbers.

Anagha Krishnan, ‘García's Decline in Peru’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 21 July 2009.

See Douglas Chalmers et. al., The New Politics of Inequality in Latin America: Rethinking Participation and Representation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997); Mauricio Cárdenas, ‘Political Polarization in Latin America’, Brookings Up Front Blog, 6 November 2009, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/1106_politics_latin_america_cardenas.aspx.

See Diego Cevallos, ‘Not Everyone Celebrates Improved Poverty Statistics’, 23 August 2005, Inter Press Service, http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/211/45123.html; Barbara J. Fraser, ‘Experts: As Economy Grows, Income Disparity in’, Catholic News Service, 30 July 2007, http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/218/46559.html.

Mark Schuller, ‘Haitian Food Riots Unnerving but Not Surprising’, 25 April 2008, Americas Program, Center for International Policy, available at http://www.americas.irc-online.org.

Though many analysts claim this high degree of inequality goes back to colonial times, a new paper disputes that and dates it from the late nineteenth century. Jeffrey G. Williamson, ‘History without Evidence: Latin American Inequality since 1491’, NBER Working Paper no. 14766, March 2009.

Florencia Torche and Seymour Spilerman, ‘Household Wealth in Latin America’, Research Paper no. 2006/114 UNU-WIDER, October 2006, pp. 1, 14–15, 35.

Ricardo Paes de Barros, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, José R. Molinas Vega and Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi, Measuring Inequality of Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean (Washington DC: The World Bank, 2008), pp. 1, xviii.

‘A Slow Maturing of Democracy’, Economist, 10 December 2009.

Chris Kraul, ‘Interview with Teodoro Petkoff: A Sort of Centrist Weighs in on Chávez Victory’, Los Angeles Times, 17 February 2009.

See Hannah Stone, ‘The Many Political Faces of Daniel Ortega’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 21 December 2011, http://www.coha.org/the-manypolitical-faces-of-daniel-ortega/.

Unless otherwise noted, data in this section are taken from Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends, Costs, and Policy Options in the Caribbean, report no. 37,820, A Joint Report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank, March 2007.

Lucia Dammert, Reporte del Sector Seguridad en América Latina y el Caribe (Santiago: FLACSO-Chile, 2007), pp. 79–80.

See Ibid.

See ‘Online analysis’, Latinobarómetro 2009, http://www.latinobarometro.org/latino/LATAnalizeIndex.jsp.

Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends, Costs, and Policy Options in the Caribbean, p. iv.

Louisa Reynolds, ‘Panama: DrugFueled Violence on the Increase’, NotiCen, 28 January 2010. The origin of the youth-gang problem dates to 2000–04, when the United States deported about 20,000 young Central American criminals whose families had fled the civil wars in the 1980s and settled in the US. These youths were deported to countries that they barely knew, and US immigration rules at the time banned officials from disclosing the criminal backgrounds of the deportees to receiving-country officials. The maras have flourished as the area's youth populations have exploded in the context of great poverty and high unemployment. The maras commit thousands of murders and participate in a flourishing drug trade as well as extortion, kidnapping, robbery, international car theft rings, and sophisticated people-smuggling operations. In Tapachula, a Mexican city on the Guatemalan border, the maras began maiming and killing undocumented workers heading to Mexico. This was intended as a warning that only those who paid for gang-connected ‘coyotes’ to smuggle them into the US (at $5,000–8,000 per person) would make it alive. Sam Logan, ‘Illegal Migration, Crime and Mexico's Maras’, 13 November 2006, mexidata.info.

Latinobarómetro 2009, pp. 33–4.

Amnesty International, ‘State of the World's Human Rights: Paraguay’, 2011, http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/paraguay/report-2011.

.International Crisis Group, ‘Colombia: President Uribe's Democratic Security Policy’, Latin America Report, no. 6, 13 November 2003, http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2367&l=1; Embassy of Colombia, ‘The Uribe Administration's Democratic Security and Defense Policy’, Washington DC, http://www.presidencia.gov.co/sne/visita_bush/documentos/security.pdf; Human Rights Watch, ‘Colombia: Obama Should Press Uribe on Rights Ahead of Meeting, Concerns Over Record on Democracy, Rule of Law’, 26 June 2009.

Joseph Vavrus, ‘CPJ Report: Journalists Killed with Impunity in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil’, Journalism in the Americas Blog, 2 June 2011, http://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/cpjreport-journalists-killed-impunitycolombia-mexico-and-brazil.