Conclusion

Abstract

The US government is planning to spend an estimated US$1 trillion over 30 years to modernise or replace its triad of air-, land- and sea-based nuclear weapons. These plans have huge implications for the security of the United States and its allies, its public finances and the salience of nuclear weapons in global politics. This Adelphi book argues that the US need not replicate its Cold War triad to achieve credible and reliable deterrence.

It proposes viable alternatives that would allow the US to maintain deterrence at a lower cost, thereby freeing up funds to ease pressing shortfalls in spending on conventional procurement and nuclear security. These alternative structures – which propose a reduction in the size and shape of the arsenal – have distinct advantages over the existing plan in maintaining strategic stability vis-à-vis Russia and China; upholding arms-control treaties; boosting the security of US nuclear forces; and supporting the global non-proliferation regime. They would also endow the US with a nuclear force better suited to the strategic environment of the twenty-first century, and mark an advance on the existing triad in supporting conventional military operations.

Notes

1 The US plans to buy at least 4,000 new Tomahawk land-attack missiles (>1,600km range) and nearly 3,000 JASSM–ERs (>800km range) during the next five years. See Ryan Maass, ‘U.S. Navy Requests 4,000 Tomahawk Cruise Missiles in Budget‘, UPI, 4 February 2016, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2016/02/04/US-Navy-requests-4000-Tomahawk-cruisemissiles-in-budget/1461454610038.

2 ‘Report on the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation Pursuant to Section 1240 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012‘, https://fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/DOD2012_RussianNukes.pdf.

3 Michael Klare, ‘Playing a Game of Chicken with Nuclear Strategy‘, War is Boring, 7 November 2016, https://warisboring.com/playing-a-game-of-chicken-with-nuclear-strategy-7baa0d5111e3#.ol6vwlu30.

4 Hans M. Kristensen, ‘DOD: Strategic Stability Not Threatened Even by Greater Russian Nuclear Forces’, Federation of American Scientists, 10 October 2012, https://fas.org/blogs/security/2012/10/strategicstability/.

5 Hope Hodge Seck, ‘Former SecDef: Remove ICBMs From Nuclear Triad‘, Military.com, 18 December 2015, http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/12/18/former-sec-def-remove-icbms-from-nuclear-triad.html; Mark Thompson, ‘Triad And True … ‘, Time, 21 June 2013, http://nation.time.com/2013/06/21/triad-and-true/.