Chapter One: Global Warming and Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change has been a key factor in the rise and fall of societies and states from prehistory to the recent fighting in the Sudanese state of Darfur. It drives instability, conflict and collapse, but also expansion and reorganisation. The ways in which cultures have met the climate challenge provide object lessons for how the modern world can handle the new security threats posed by unprecedented global warming.

Combining historical precedents with current thinking on state stability, internal conflict and state failure suggests that overcoming cultural, social, political and economic barriers to successful adaptation to a changing climate is the most important factor in avoiding instability in a warming world. The countries which will face increased risk are not necessarily the most fragile, nor those which will suffer the greatest physical effects of climate change.

The global security threat posed by fragile and failing states is well known. It is in the interest of the world's more affluent countries to take measures both to reduce the degree of global warming and climate change and to cushion the impact in those parts of the world where climate change will increase that threat. Neither course of action will be cheap, but inaction will be costlier. Providing the right kind of assistance to the people and places it is most needed is one way of reducing the cost, and understanding how and why different societies respond to climate change is one way of making that possible.

Notes

4AR WG1 SPM. The IPCC assessment reports offer the most comprehensive summaries of the scientific evidence; for a good general discussion of the science aimed at policymakers and analysts see Richard Wolfson and Stephen H. Schneider, ‘Understanding Climate Science’, in S.H. Schneider et al. (eds), Climate Change Policy: A Survey (Washington DC: Island Press, 2002), pp. 3–51.

W.F. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006); Tim Flannery, The Weather Makers: Our Changing Climate and What it Means for Life on Earth (London: Penguin, 2006), pp. 61–8; S. Vavrus et al., ‘Climate Model Tests of the Anthropogenic Influence on Greenhouse-induced Climate Change: The Role of Early Human Agriculture, Industrialisation, and Vegetation Feedbacks’, Quarternary Science Reviews, vol. 27, nos 13–14, July 2008, pp. 1,410–25. The cyclical nature of climate on a multimillennial scale is discussed later in this chapter; the lesser but in human terms still significant variations since the end of the Ice Age are discussed in Chapter 2.

4AR WG1, p. 435. The IPCC uses the concept of ‘radiative forcing’, or the change in net irradiance at the top of the troposphere (the lowest level of the atmosphere, up to 9–16km above the surface). It is related linearly to global mean surface-temperature change (4AR WG1, pp. 133–4).

For the original hockey-stick graph, see Michael E. Mann et al., ‘Globalscale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries’, Nature, vol. 392, no. 6,678, 23 April 1998, pp. 779–87; Mann et al., ‘Northern Hemisphere Temperatures during the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 26, no. 6, 15 March 1999, pp. 759–62; for summations of more recent work see 4AR WG1, p. 467; Mann et al., ‘Proxybased Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 105, no. 36, 9 September 2008, pp. 13,252–7.

There was, to be sure, a high degree of climate instability before 10,000 years ago – the end of the last Ice Age – which had profound effects on human biological and cultural evolution. See William J. Burroughs, Climate Change in Prehistory: The End of the Reign of Chaos (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005).

For a detailed discussion of the definition of climate and its relevance for planners and policymakers see Nathaniel B. Guttman, ‘Statistical Descriptors of Climate’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 70, no. 6, June 1989, pp. 602–7.

See Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?’, p. 78.

Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change’, Science, vol. 306, 3 December 2004, p. 1686. Besides the IPCC reports, Oreskes cites studies by the US National Academy of Sciences, the American Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?’, p. 73; she cites an earlier study which concluded that scientific consensus was reached as early as 1995. For contrarian views see B.J. Peiser, ‘The Dangers of Consensus Science’, Canada National Post, 17 May 2005; R.A. Pielke, ‘Consensus About Climate Change?’, Science, vol. 208, no. 5,724, pp. 952–3.

Peter T. Dornan and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, ‘Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change’, Eos, vol. 90, no. 3, 20 January 2009, pp. 22–3.

For a detailed discussion of scientific method in the context of climatology, see Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?’, pp. 79–93. Even if there had been any validity behind the politically motivated and media-driven controversies that broke at the end of 2009 based on the wilful misinterpretation of stolen e-mails from a UK-based research unit and some insignificant errors in 4AR WG2, it would not have significantly damaged the scientific consensus.

‘Climate Change: The Debate Heats Up’, IISS Strategic Comments, vol. 13, no. 2, March 2007.

Ibid. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) is available at http://www1.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm.

4AR WG1, p. 21 (TS), 95–121. The First Assessment Report was for the most part non-quantitative; the second report in 1995 found that the ‘balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’ and was instrumental in the successful negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, ‘Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series’, Energy and Environment, vol. 14, no. 6, November 2003, pp. 751–71; Hans von Storch et al., ‘Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data’, Science, vol. 306, no. 5696, 22 October 2004, pp. 679–82; McIntyre and McKitrick, ‘Hockey Sticks, Principal Components, and Spurious Significance’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L03710, 2005; Anders Moberg et al., ‘Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Reconstructed from Low- and Highresolution Proxy Data’, Nature, vol. 433, no. 7,026, 10 February 2005, pp. 613–17. Despite their concerns about some of the methods underlying the hockey stick, Moberg et al. actually reinforce and extend the main conclusions of that study.

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 2,000 Years (Washington DC: The National Academies Press, 2006); Edward J. Wegman et al., Ad Hoc Committee Report On The ‘Hockey Stick’ Global Climate Reconstruction, http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/WegmanReport.pdf.

Stefan Rahmstorf, ‘Testing Climate Reconstructions’, Science, vol. 312, no. 5,782, 30 June 2006, p. 1,872; Eugene R. Wahl et al., ‘Comment on “Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data”‘, Science, vol. 312, no. 5,573, 26 April 2006, p. 529b; Wahl and Casper M. Ammann, ‘Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures: Examination of Criticisms Based on the Nature and Processing of Proxy Climate Evidence’, Climatic Change, vol. 85, nos 1–2, November 2007, pp. 33–69; Ammann and Wahl, ‘The Importance of the Geophysical Context in Statistical Evaluations of Climate Reconstruction Procedures’, Climatic Change, vol. 85, nos 1–2, November 2007, pp. 71–88; Peter Huybers, ‘Comment on “Hockey Sticks, Principal Components, and Spurious Significance” by McIntyre and McKitrick’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L20705, 2005, doi:10.1029/2005GL023395; von Storch and Eduardo. Zorita, ‘Comment on “Hockey Sticks, Principal Components, and Spurious Significance” by McIntyre and McKitrick’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L20701, 2005; Mann et al., ‘Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia’.

4AR WG1, pp. 466–73.

See, for example, James Hansen et al., ‘Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?’, Open Atmospheric Science Journal, vol. 2, 2008, pp. 217–31, available at http://www.bentham.org/open/toascj/openaccess2.htm; Thomas R. Karl et al., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 (Washington DC: US Climate Change Science Program, 2008), http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/; Amanda Leigh Mascarelli, ‘What We've Learned in 2008’, Nature Reports: Climate Change, vol. 3, January 2009, pp. 4–6; Pew Center for Global Climate Change, Key Scientific Developments since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Science Brief 2, June 2009; Katherine Richardson et al., Synthesis Report from Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, Copenhagen 2009, 10–12 March (Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, 2009); I. Allison et al., The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science (Sydney: University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre, 2009).

4AR WG1, pp. 12 (SPM), 809.

4AR WG1, pp. 5, 12–13 (SPM). For the estimate of impacts see IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 797, hereinafter 4AR WG2. It should be noted that this estimate is at low to medium confidence, but the impacts and level of confidence both increase with increasing temperatures.

For details see Chapter 4.

4AR WG1, p. 71 (TS).

4AR WG1, p. 13 (SPM).

4AR WG1, Table 11.1, pp. 854–7.

For methodological considerations relating to regional climate projections, see L.O. Mearns et al., ‘Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Regional Climate Model Experiments’, 30 October 2003, http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/dgm_no1_v1_10-2003.pdf; 4AR WG1, pp. 918–25.

See, for example, the summations in the synthesis and assessment products of the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), especially Karl et al., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate; Paul van der Linden and John F.B. Mitchell (eds), ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project (Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre, 2009), http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf; Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review Final Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), http://www.garnautreview.org.au/. As of March 2010, the CCSP unified synthesis report was available in the form of the thirrd draft dated 27 April 2009, which is not intended for citation or quotation.

Richard Wood, ‘Natural Ups and Downs’, Nature Reports Climate Change, vol. 2, May 2008, p. 61.

N.S. Keenlyside et al., ‘Advancing Decadal-scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector’, Nature, vol. 453, no. 7,191, 1 May 2008, pp. 84–9.

Doug M. Smith et al., ‘Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model’, Science, vol. 317, no. 5,839, 10 August 2007, pp. 796–9.

See Gerald A. Meehl, ‘Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful?’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 90, no. 10, October 2009, pp. 1,467–85.

4AR WG1, p. 809.

Ed Hawkins and Rowan Sutton, ‘The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 90, no. 8, August 2009, pp. 1,095–1,107.

N. Nakićenović and R. Swart (eds), IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000). For a breakdown of the six scenarios used in the Fourth Assessment Report, see 4AR WG1, p. 18.

4AR WG2, pp. 146–7.

4AR WG1, p. 89 (TS).

David B. Lobell et al., ‘Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030’, Science, vol. 319, no. 5,863, 1 February 2008, p. 608; 4AR WG1, p. 75 (TS).

Ibid., p. 74.

UNFCCC, Article 2, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.

See W. Neil Adger et al., ‘Successful Adaptation to Climate Change Across Scales’, Global Environmental Change, vol. 15, 2005, pp. 77–86.

4AR WG1, pp. 600–1; Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?’, pp. 87–8.

For summaries of the projected physical, social and political impacts of anthropogenic climate change see Alan Dupont, Climate Change and Security: Managing the Risk, Report commissioned by the Garnaut Climate Change Review, June 2008, http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/05Security/$File/05%20Security.pdf; Dupont, ‘The Strategic Implications of Climate Change’, Survival, vol. 50, no. 3, June–July 2008, pp. 29–54; Herman and Treverton, ‘The Political Consequences of Climate Change’; ‘Climate Change: Security Implications and Regional Impacts’, Strategic Survey 2007; 4AR WG1; WG2.

Burroughs, Climate Change in Prehistory, p. 5.

Ibid., p. 298.

For details see 4AR WG1, pp. 818–19.

Timothy M. Lenton et al., ‘Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 105, no. 6, 12 Febrary 2008, pp. 1,786–93.

IPCC 4AR, pp. 818–19.

Diana Simpson, ‘Climate Change and National Security’, Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center, Maxwell AFB, AL, April 2008, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/bibs/climate.htm.

CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.

‘Climate Change: Security Implications and Regional Impacts’, Strategic Survey 2007.

Campbell et al., The Age of Consequences, p. 6.

Busby, Climate Change and National Security.

Ben Russell and Nigel Morris, ‘Armed Forces are Put on Standby to Tackle Threat of Wars over Water’, Independent, 28 February 2006, http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article348196.ece.

Ban Ki-moon, ‘Secretary-General's Address to UNIS–UN Conference on Climate Change’, http://www.un.org/apps/sg/sgstats.asp?nid=462.

Beckett, ‘Climate Change: “The Gathering Storm”‘. For her remarks at the Security Council debate itself, see Beckett, ‘Opening Remarks’.

Council of the European Union, Climate Change and International Security; see also Nicole Itano, ‘At EU Summit, Climate Change Billed as Major Security Risk’, Christian Science Monitor, 14 March 2008, http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0314/p06s01-wogn.html?page=1.

‘France Warns Climate Change Driving War, Hunger’, AFP, 18 April 2008.

‘Expert: Climate Change Could Mean “Extended World War”‘, AP, 23 February 2009.

Ban Ki-moon, ‘A Climate Culprit in Darfur’, Washington Post, 16 June 2007, p. A15.

See Stephan Faris, ‘The Real Roots of Darfur’, The Atlantic, April 2007, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200704/darfur-climate.

Alex de Waal, ‘Is Climate Change the Culprit for Darfur?’, SSRC Blogs, Climate and Environment: Making Sense of Darfur, http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/2007/06/25/is-climatechange-the-culprit-for-darfur/.

Michael Kevane and Leslie Gray, ‘Darfur: Rainfall and Conflict’, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 3, 2008, 034006.

William H. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples (New York: Anchor Books, 1976), pp. 82–90.

Ibid., pp. 90–4.

James C. McCann, ‘Climate and Causation in African History’, International Journal of African Historical Studies, vol. 32, 1999, pp. 261–79, available at http://www.h-net.org/~environ/historiography/africa.htm.

Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997).

See J. Donald Hughes, An Environmental History of the World: Humankind's Changing Role in the Community of Life (London and New York: Routledge, 2001), pp. 52–79.

Ellsworth Huntington, The Pulse of Asia: A Journey in Central Asia Illustrating the Geographical Basis of History (Boston, MA: Houghton, Mifflin and Co., 1907); Huntington, Civilization and Climate (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1915).

See David Herlihy, ‘Ecological Conditions and Demographic Change’, in Richard L. DeMolen (ed.), One Thousand Years: Western Europe in the Middle Ages (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 1974), pp. 6–7. Herlihy offers a good, if dated, survey of the influence of environmental factors on the history of Western Europe. See also John E. Chappell, Jr, ‘Climatic Change Reconsidered: Another Look at “The Pulse of Asia”‘, Geographical Review, vol. 60, no. 3, July 1970, pp. 347–73.

Halford J. Mackinder, ‘The Geographical Pivot of History’, Geographical Journal, vol. 23, 1904, pp. 421–37.

Schubert et al., Climate Change as a Security Risk, pp. 25–9. The authors also discuss a fourth, more recent approach from the Irvine group, which is less a coherent methodology than a call for reorienting research towards issues of human security, and the ‘syndromebased’ approach developed under the auspices of the WBGU itself.

Ibid., p. 30.

See Thomas Homer-Dixon, ‘Strategies for Studying Causation in Complex Ecological Political Systems’, Occasional Paper, Projected on Environment, Population and Security, American Association for the Advancement of Science and the University of Toronto, June 1995, available at http://www.library.utoronto.ca/pcs/eps/method/methods1.htm; Charles C. Ragin, The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies (Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press, 1987).

Schubert at al., Climate Change as a Security Risk.

Martin McCauley, The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Union (Harlow: Pearson Education, 2008), pp. 147, 252.

For further discussion on this point see Jeffrey Mazo, ‘Failure is No Success at All’, Survival, vol. 47, no. 3, Autumn 2005, pp. 165–72.