Chapter Four: Conflict, Instability and State Failure: The Climate Factor

Abstract

Climate change has been a key factor in the rise and fall of societies and states from prehistory to the recent fighting in the Sudanese state of Darfur. It drives instability, conflict and collapse, but also expansion and reorganisation. The ways in which cultures have met the climate challenge provide object lessons for how the modern world can handle the new security threats posed by unprecedented global warming.

Combining historical precedents with current thinking on state stability, internal conflict and state failure suggests that overcoming cultural, social, political and economic barriers to successful adaptation to a changing climate is the most important factor in avoiding instability in a warming world. The countries which will face increased risk are not necessarily the most fragile, nor those which will suffer the greatest physical effects of climate change.

The global security threat posed by fragile and failing states is well known. It is in the interest of the world's more affluent countries to take measures both to reduce the degree of global warming and climate change and to cushion the impact in those parts of the world where climate change will increase that threat. Neither course of action will be cheap, but inaction will be costlier. Providing the right kind of assistance to the people and places it is most needed is one way of reducing the cost, and understanding how and why different societies respond to climate change is one way of making that possible.

Notes

The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The White House, September 2002, p. 4, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2002/nss.pdf; The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The White House, March 2006, p. 15, available at http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/nss2006.pdf.

See Robert I. Rotberg, ‘Failed States in a World of Terror’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 81, no. 4, July–August 2002, pp. 127–40; Rotberg (ed.), When States Fail: Causes and Consequences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004); European Report on Development, Development in a Context of Fragility: Focus on Africa, outline report, 13 February 2009, http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/repository/ERDOutline-Report-13-02-2009_en.pdf, pp. 18–24. For syntheses of theoretical and definitional issues surrounding state fragility and failure, see Claire Mcloughlin, Fragile States, Governance and Social Development Resource Centre Topic Guide (Birmingham: International Development Department, University of Birmingham, 2009), http://www.gsdrc.org/docs/open/CON67.pdf; and Robert B. Zoellick, ‘Fragile States: Securing Development’, Survival, vol. 50, no. 6, December 2008–January 2009, pp. 67–84.

Rotberg, ‘The New Nature of Nation- State Failure’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 3, Summer 2002, pp. 90–3.

Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace, ‘The Failed States Index 2009’, Foreign Policy, July–August 2009, pp. 80–93, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/22/the_2009_failed_states_index; Country Indicators for Foreign Policy, Carleton University, Fragile and Failed States Project, http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/ffs.htm; Susan E. Rice and Stewart Patrick, Index of State Weakness in the Developing World (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 2008), http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/02_weak_states_index.aspx.

See, for example, the CIFP Conflict Risk Assessment project, http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/cra.htm; and the Political Instability Task Force models, http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/.

Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, pp. 121–2.

Ibid., p. 206.

See 4AR WG2, pp. 821–4.

Diamond, Collapse, p. 420. For Tainter's response to Diamond see Peter B. deMenocal et al., ‘Perspectives on Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed’, Current Anthropology, vol. 46, suppl., December 2005, pp. S91–S99.

Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, p. 213.

Ibid., pp. 213–14.

Ibid., p. 214.

Rotberg, ‘The New Nature of Nation-State Failure’, p. 93.

4AR WG1, pp. 16(SPM); 74 (TS); WG2, pp. 175, 183–90.

Brian Hoyle, ‘The Energy–Water Nexus: Deja-vu All Over Again?’, Nature Reports Climate Change, vol. 2, April 2008, pp. 46–7.

Bryson Bates et al. (eds), Climate Change and Water, IPCC Technical Paper (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008).

4AR WG2, pp. 444–5; Bates et al., Climate Change and Water, pp. 81–2.

4AR WG2, p. 54.

Ibid., p. 598.

Ibid., p. 471.

Bates et al., Climate Change and Water, p. 87.

4AR WG2, pp. 11–12 (SPM).

Ibid., p. 275.

Ibid., p. 299, Table 5.6.

Nigel W. Arnell, ‘Climate Change and Water Resources: A Global Perspective’, in Hans Joachim Schellnhuber et al. (eds), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), pp. 167–75.

Josef Schmidhuber and Francesco N. Tubiello, ‘Global Food Security under Climate Change’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104, no. 50, 11 December 2007, pp. 19,703–8.

Molly E. Brown and Christopher C. Funk, ‘Food Security Under Climate Change’, Science, vol. 319, no. 5,863, 1 February 2008, pp. 580–81; 4AR WG2, pp. 275–6.

Ibid., pp. 328–33.

Ibid., pp. 302, 448.

Ibid., pp. 583, 597.

Ibid., pp. 597.

Ibid., pp. 471, 482–3. The crop yield and risk hunger projections are not strictly comparable since they are based on different emissions scenarios.

Lobell et al., ‘Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030’.

Burroughs, Climate Change in Prehistory, p. 296.

4AR WG2, p. 375.

Burroughs (ed.), Climate into the 21^st Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press for the World Meteorological Organisation, 2003), pp. 109–10.

4AR WG2, p. 813.

Ibid.

Melissa Dell et al., ‘Climate Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century’, paper presented at the American Economics Association Annual Meeting, San Francsisco, CA, 3–7 January 2009, available at http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2009/retrieve. php?pdfid=218.

4AR WG2, p. 365; Anna Barnett, ‘Report Disperses Migration Myth’, Nature Reports Climate Change, vol. 3, July 2009, pp. 79–80; Sabine L. Perch-Nielsen et al., ‘Exploring the Link between Climate Change and Migration’, Climatic Change, vol. 91, nos 3–4, December 2008, pp. 375–93.

Gaia Vince, ‘Coping with Climate Change: Which Societies Will Do Best?’, Yale Environment 360, 2 November 2009, http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2205.

Brooks et al., ‘The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation’, Global Environmental Change, vol. 15, 2005, pp. 151–61.

Vince, ‘Coping with Climate Change: Which Societies Will Do Best?’.

Burroughs, Climate Change in Prehistory, p. 295.

‘How Equine Flu brought the US to a Standstill’, Horsetalk, 26 September 2007, http://www.horsetalk.co.nz/features/equineflu-131.shtml.

Alan Dupont and Mark Thirlwell, ‘Are We Entering a New Era of Food Insecurity?’, Survival, vol. 51, no. 3, June–July 2009, pp. 71–98.

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: IEA, 2009).

For a discussion of these variables in a broader context see W. Neil Adger, ‘Social and Ecological Resilance: Are they Related?’, Progress in Human Geography, vol. 24, no. 3, 2000, pp. 347–64, TAR, p. 995.

Brooks et al., ‘The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation’.

ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD, ‘Climate and Climate Change’, Atlas on Regional Integration in West Africa (Paris: ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD, 2008), p. 13.

Burke et al., ‘Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa’.

4AR WG2, p. 854.

Oli Brown and Alex Crawford, Assessing the Security Implications of Climate Change for West Africa: Country Case Studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso (Winnipeg, MB: International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2008), pp. viii–ix.

United Nations Association of Iran, Climate Change and Iran, UNA-Iran Report, April 2008, available at http://www.unairan.org; A. Koocheki et al., ‘Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agroclimatic Indicators in Iran’, Arid Land Research and Management, vol. 20, no. 3, 1 September 2006, pp. 245–59.

Aye Sapay Phyu and Sann Oo, ‘Changing Climate Hurts Myanmar’, Myanmar Times, 16 December 2009; Mark Kinver, ‘Mangrove Loss “Left Burma Exposed”‘, BBC News, 5 May 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/sci/tech/7385315.stm.

4AR WG2, p. 92.

Vince, ‘Coping with Climate Change: Which Societies Will Do Best?’.

Soraya Sahaddi Nelson, ‘Farming is Latest Casualty in Drought-Stricken Iraq’, National Public Radio, 6 August 2008, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93329939; ‘Drought New Threat to Stability in Iraq's Diyala’, People's Daily Online, 21 April 2009; ‘Droughts, Dams Force Iraqi Farmers to Abandon Crops’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2 October 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/Drought_Iranian_Dams_Force_Iraqi_Farmers_To_Abandon_Crops/1842000.html.

Matthew Savage et al., Socio- Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan, Report to the Department of International Development, Executive Summary, DFID CNTR 08 8507, http://www.livelihoodsrc.org/uploads/File/2007447_AfghanCC_ExS_09MAR09.pdf; Jerome Starkey, ‘Climate Change Delivers a Boost in Battle against Opium Harvest’, The Scotsman, 23 April 2008, http://news.scotsman.com/world/Climatechange-delivers-a-boost.4009101.jp; David Mansfield, ‘Responding to the Challenge of Diversity in Opium Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan’, in D. Buddenberg and W. Byrd (eds), Afghanistan's Drugs Industry: Structure, Functioning, Dynamics and Implications for Counter Narcotics Policy (Kabul: UNODC/World Bank, 2006), p. 51, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/Publications/448813-1164651372704/UNDC_Ch3.pdf.

Bates et al., Climate Change and Water, pp. 87–8; Sherry Goodman, quoted in Keith Kloor, ‘The War against Warming’, Nature Reports Climate Change, 19 December 2009.

Oli Brown and Alex Crawford, Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict in the Middle East (Winnipeg, MB: International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009).

Rotberg, ‘The New Nature of Nation- State Failure’, pp. 92–3.

Susan E. Rice, ‘Global Poverty, Weak States and Insecurity’, The Brookings Blum Roundtable, 2 August 2008, available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2006/08globaleconomics_rice.aspx, pp. 6–7.

Library of Congress, Federal Research Division, Country Profile: Colombia (Washington DC: Library of Congress, February 2007), http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/Colombia.pdf; The CIA World Factbook, updated 15 January 2010, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/co.html; IISS Strategic Survey 2009 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2009), pp. 113–17.

Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), Colombia – Integrated National Adaptation Plan: High Mountain Ecosystems, Caribbean Islands and Human Health (Bogotá: IDEAM, 2005), http://www.ideam.gov.co/INAP.pdf.

Lobell et al., ‘Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030’; Edward H. Allison et al., ‘Vulnerability of National Economics to the Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries’, Fish and Fisheries, 4 February 2009, doi: 10.1111/j.1467- 2979.2008.00310.x.

Jonathan A. Patz et al., ‘Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health’, Nature, vol. 438, no. 7,066, 17 November 2005, pp. 310–17; Anastasia Maloney, ‘Climate Change is Affecting Colombia's Glaciers and Public Health’, Alertnet, 22 September 2009, http://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/59877/2009/08/22-171019-1.htm; IDEAM, Colombia – Integrated National Adaptation Plan.

Raymond S. Bradley et al., ‘Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes’, Science, vol. 312, no. 5,791, 23 June 2006, pp. 1,755–6.

Ibid.

Ricardo Lozano, head of IDEAM, quoted in Anastasia Moloney, ‘Climate Change is Affecting Colombia's Glaciers and Public Health’.

Ashley Hamer, ‘Authorities Begin Water Rationing Ahead of Predicted Drought’, Colombia Reports, 11 December 2009; Angela González, ‘Colombia's Rivers Run Dry’, Colombia Reports, 25 January 2010, http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/7842-colombias-rivers-rundry.html; Heather Walsh and Jose Orozco, ‘Colombia, Venezuela Cocoa Crops Hurt by Drought, Set to Drop’, Bloomberg.com, 14 January 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=azC9KINdbm 4s; Alexander Cuadros, ‘Colombia's Inflation Rate May Rise to 11-Month High on Drought’, Business Week, 5 February 2010.

Jeremy Morgan, ‘Latin American Realpolitik: Colombia Cuts Electricity to Venezuela, Ecuador’, Latin American Herald Tribune, 7 February 2010.

Strategic Survey 1998–99 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 1999), pp. 215–20; Strategic Survey 1999–2000 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 2000), pp. 233–41; Strategic Survey 2008 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2008), pp. 368–70; Strategic Survey 2009 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2009), pp. 345–7.

Gunilla Ölund Wingqvist and Emelie Dahlberg, ‘Indonesia Environmental and Climate Change Policy Brief’, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, 8 September 2008, p. 9, available at http://www.sida.se/Global/Countries and regions/Asia incl.Middle East/Indonesia/Environmental policy brief Indonesia.pdf.

Agus P. Sari et al., Executive Summary: Indonesia and Climate Change, Working Paper on Current Status and Policies (Jakarta: PT. Pelangi Energi Abadi Citra Enviro, 2007), pp. 3–4.

Wingqvist and Dahlberg, ‘Indonesia Environmental and Climate Change Policy Brief’, pp. 8–9.

Sari et al., Executive Summary: Indonesia and Climate Change, p. 5.

Wingqvist and Dahlberg, ‘Indonesia Environmental and Climate Change Policy Brief’, p. 9.

Rosamond L. Naylor et al., ‘Assessing Risks of Climate Variability and Climate Change for Indonesian Rice Agriculture’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104, no. 19, 8 May 2007, pp. 7,752–7.

Ibid.; Alwin Keil et al., ‘Water Determines Farmers’ Resilience towards ENSO-related Drought? An Empirical Assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia’, Climatic Change, vol. 86, nos 3–4, February 2008, pp. 291–307.

Allison et al., ‘Vulnerability of National Economics to the Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries’.

For an assessment of Indonesia's level of food security see World Food Programme, Executive Brief: Indonesia Food Security, February 2007; see also http://www.wfp.org/countries/Indonesia.

Arief Anshory Yusuf and Herminia Francisco, Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia (Singapore: Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia, 2009), p. 13.

See Angel Rabasa and Peter Chalk, Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001), http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1344/ for an incisive discussion of the geopolitical importance of Indonesia, written at a time when its trajectory was still very much in doubt. In the event they proved overly pessimistic in their prognosis, although their analysis remains valid.