Turkey and the USA in a Bipolarizing Middle East

Abstract

Since 2011, the Middle East has become more bipolarized between Iran and the USA and their respective allies. The Syrian civil war has become a proxy conflict between the two blocs. Systems theory helps us understand the patterns of international politics to be expected in a bipolarizing system, as does the analysis of national interests. The expansion of Iranian power and Syrian strife have increased threats to Turkish security, giving Ankara incentives to coordinate its Middle East policies more closely with those of Washington. However, Turkey's estrangement from Israel creates an obstacle to effective cooperation. The USA should actively try to remove this obstacle by helping Ankara and Tel Aviv resolve their differences.

Notes

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 [3] Meliha Altunisik and Lenore G. Martin, ‘Making sense of Turkish foreign policy’, Turkish Studies, 12(4), December 2011, pp. 578–582.

 [4] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Turkey, ‘Relations between Turkey–Syria’, < http://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkey–syria.en.mfa> (accessed 14 September 2012); ‘Türkiye–Suriye ortak TATBİKATI BAŞLADI’, İhlas Haber Ajansı, 28 Nisan 2010 [‘Turkey–Syria joint exercise started’, Ilhas News Agency, 28 April 2012], < http://www.turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/haberdetay.aspx?haberid = 440625#.UFUETq7fI_B> (accessed14 September 2012).

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 [6] ‘İskenderun'daki korkunç şüphe’ [Awful suspicion in Iskenderun], Sabah, 1 June 2010, < http://www.sabah.com.tr/Gundem/2010/06/01/iskenderundaki_korkunc_suphe>(accessed 15 September 2012).

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 [8] Babak Rahimi, ‘Muqtada al-Sadr and Iran use “soft power” to pursue objectives in Iraq’, reprinted from Terrorism Monitor, 9(5), 4 February 2011, < http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D = 37457&cHash = 89bf9fce00> (accessed 15 September 2012).

 [9] See Majority Staff Report prepared for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, ‘The Gulf security architecture: partnership with the Gulf Cooperation Council’, 19 June 2012.

[10] Ellen Nakashima, Greg Miller and Julie Tate, ‘U.S., Israel developed Flame computer virus to slow Iranian nuclear efforts, officials say’, The Washington Post, 19 June 2012, < http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-israel-developed-computer-virus-to-slow-iranian-nuclear-efforts-officials-say/2012/06/19/gJQA6xBPoV_story.html> (accessed 15 September 2012).

[11] Thom Shanker, ‘U.S. and Gulf allies pursue a missile shield against Iranian attack’, New York Times, 8 August 2012, < http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/world/middleeast/us-and-gulf-allies-pursue-a-missile-shield-against-iranian-attack.html> (accessed 15 September 2012).

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[14] Lenore G. Martin, ‘Towards an integrated approach to national security’, New Frontiers in Middle East Security, St Martin's Press, New York, 1998, pp. 3–22.

[15] See Robert Jackson and George Sø´renson, Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches, 3rd edn, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007.

[16] A progenitor of this application of systems analysis is Morton A. Kaplan, the author of many works on this subject. For a good introduction to the application of systems analysis in the field of international relations, see Morton A. Kaplan, ‘Some problems of international systems research’, in International Political Communities: An Anthology, Anchor Books/Doubleday, New York, 1966, pp. 469–501.

[17] Ibid., pp. 471–472.

[18] Kaplan, for one, never claimed as much. His systems models could be refined by the introduction of additional variables. His ‘bipolar’ system was originally bifurcated into ‘loose’ and ‘tight’ bipolar systems, and then with additional variables each was further refined into a ‘very loose bipolar’ system, ‘détente system’, ‘unstable bloc system’ and ‘incomplete nuclear diffusion system’. Kaplan, op. cit., pp. 479–482 and 487–494.

[19] Lenore G. Martin, ‘Resolving the challenges to security and cooperation in the wider Black Sea region’, Security and Cross Border Cooperation and the EU, Black Sea Region and Southern Caucasus, IOS Press, Amsterdam (forthcoming, 2013).

[20] Kaplan, op. cit., p. 471.

[21] Serhat Erkmen, ‘The priorities of Syrian Kurds and the causes–goals of KNC–PYD cooperation’, ORSAM Foreign Policy Analysis, 3 August 2012, < http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showArticle.aspx?ID = 1836> (accessed 15 September 2012); ‘Don't provoke us, Erdoğan says in stern warning to Syrian Kurds’, Today's Zaman, 26 July 2012, < http://www.todayszaman.com/news-287715-dont-provoke-us-erdogan-says-in-stern-warning-to-syrian-kurds.html> (accessed 26 July 2012). It remains to be seen, however, if their agreement will hold. Isabel Coles, ‘Syrian Kurd party says Turkey should not fear its rise’, Reuters, 7 August 2012, < http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-syria-kurds-idUSBRE8760HN20120807>(accessed 15 September 2012).

[22] Abdullah Bozkurt, ‘Turkey says it will do “whatever is required” against Iran’, Today's Zaman, 10 August 2012, < http://www.todayszaman.com/news-289166-turkey-says-it-will-do-whatever-is-required-against-iran.html> (accessed 10 August 2012).

[23] Author's interviews Diyarbakir, June 2010. See also Henri J. Barkey, ‘Back to bloodshed: can Turkey's leaders quell the uptick in violence between the state and the Kurds before it gets out of hand?’, < http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/21/back_to_bloodshed?page = full> (accessed 15 September 2012).

[24] See Neophytos G. Loizides, ‘State ideology and the Kurds in Turkey’, Middle Eastern Studies, 46(4), 2010, pp. 513–527.

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[26] Indira A. R. Lakshmanan, ‘Iran sanctions hitting Turkish economy, energy costs’, Bloomberg, 17 April 2012, < http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/iran-sanctions-hitting-turkish-economy-energy-costs.html> (accessed 15 September 2012); David O'Byrne, ‘Turkey's current account deficit: good news and bad news’, beyondbrics, Financial Times.com, 11 July 2012, < http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/07/11/turkeys-current-account-deficit-good-news-and-bad-news/#ixzz26dqg2iTF> (accessed 3 August 2012).

[27] See Gareth H. Jenkins, ‘Occasional allies, enduring rivals: Turkey's relations with Iran’, Silk Road Paper, May 2012, pp. 53–56, < http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/silkroadpapers/1205Jenkins.pdf> (accessed 16 September 2012).

[28] ‘Aphrodite's gift: can Cypriot gas power a new dialogue?’, International Crisis Group, Europe Report No. 216, 2 April 2012 (accessed 2 May 2012). ‘Turkey deploys naval units to east Med’, Today's Zaman, 10 October 2011, < http://www.todayszaman.com/news-259404-turkey-deploys-naval-units-to-east-med.html> (accessed 10 October 2011); Ebru Ogurlu, ‘Rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: implications for Turkish foreign policy’, IAI Working Papers 12104, March 2012.

[29] ‘Israel vows to defend gas after Turkey threatens to boost naval patrols in Mediterranean’, Haaretz, 11 September 2011, < http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-vows-to-defend-gas-after-turkey-threatens-to-boost-navy-patrols-in-mediterranean-1.383820> (accessed 12 September 2012).

[30] Andreas Sterglou, ‘Russian policy in the eastern Mediterranean and the implications for external action’, European Union Institute for Strategic Studies, 25 July 2012, < http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/russian-policy-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-and-the-implications-for-eu-external-action/> (accessed 15 September 2012); ‘Putin woos Israel amid East Med gas clash’, UPI, 18 July 2012, < http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/07/18/Putin-woos-Israel-amid-East-Med-gas-clash/UPI-80131342640723/> (accessed 5 September 2012).

[31] See Özlem Tür, ‘Economic relations with the Middle East under the AKP—trade, business community and reintegration with neighboring zones’, in Altunisik and Martin, op. cit., pp. 589–602.

[32] David O'Byrne, ‘Turkey: weaning off of Iranian oil’, beyondbrics, Financial Times.com, 31 July 2012, < http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/07/31/turkey-weaning-off-iranian-oil/#ixzz26RktARh0> (accessed 14 September 2012).

[33] ‘Iran test fires short-range missile’, Al Jazeera English, 4 August 2012, < http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/2012841055642103.html> (accessed 16 September 2012).

[34] Abbas Al Lawati, ‘Strategic value of GCC expansion plans come under scrutiny’, Gulfnews.com, 12 May 2011, < http://gulfnews.com/news/region/strategic-value-of-gcc-expansion-plans-come-under-scrutiny-1.806700> (accessed 16 September 2012).

[35] Kaplan refers to these non-aligned states as ‘non-bloc actors’ and organizations like the United Nations as the ‘universal actor’ and assigns roles to them of mediating between the bipolar blocs. See Kaplan, op. cit., p. 481.

[36] Turkey may achieve other benefits from closer relations with Egypt, including expansion of trade and diplomatic influence. See Tim Arango, ‘Turkey and Egypt seek alliance amid region's upheaval’, New York Times, 18 October 2012, < http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/world/middleeast/turkey-and-egypt-look-to-team-up-amid-tumult.html> (accessed 10 November 2012).

[37] William Luers and Thomas Pickering, ‘Envisioning a deal with Iran’, New York Times, 2 February 2012, < http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html> (accessed 16 September, 2012); and the response by James Kirchick, ‘No to a grand bargain with Iran’, Haaretz, 10 February 2012, < http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/no-to-a-grand-bargain-with-iran-1.412088> (accessed 16 September 2012). See some of the foremost proponents of the Grand Bargain: Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, ‘The Grand Bargain’, Washington Monthly, August/September/October 2008, < http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2008/0808.leverett.html> (accessed 16 September 2012); Shahram Chubin, ‘A Grand Bargain with Iran’, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011, < http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/23/grand-bargain-with-iran/1o6k> (accessed 16 September 2012).

[38] ‘Chapter Four: Europe’, The Military Balance, 112(1), 2012, pp. 162–165, < http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2012.663213>; ‘Chapter Seven: Middle East and North Africa’, The Military Balance, 112(1), 2012, pp. 323–326, < http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2012.663216>.

[39] Boston Study Group for Middle East Peace, Israel and Palestine—Two States for Two Peoples: If Not Now, When?, Foreign Policy Association, New York, 2010, < http://www.fpa.org/topics_info2414/topics_info_show.htm?doc_id = 1143022>.