Arab Uprisings and Completing Turkey's Regional Integration: Challenges and Opportunities for US–Turkish Relations

Abstract

Today, regional economic integration in the Middle East continues to remain at an unusually low level compared to other regions of the world. This is especially problematic because traditionally, regional integration has long been seen as an effective tool for encouraging regional peace, stability and prosperity, with also the added expectation that economic growth may also help or facilitate transition to democracy. This paper asks the question of whether the Arab uprisings might provide a new environment in which Turkey and the USA, together with the European Union, could cooperate to bring about some degree of regional economic integration. The paper discusses Turkey's increasing economic engagement of its neighbourhood since the end of the Cold War and argues that this experience constitutes a good basis for cooperation, even if there remain a number of challenges stemming from Turkey as well as the Middle East. As much as these challenges may seem insurmountable, initiating a tri-lateral dialogue is of critical importance as the rewards of regional integration in the Middle East in terms of stability, peace and prosperity would be huge and of a ‘win-win’ nature for Turkey, for the EU, for the USA, and of course for the region.

Notes

 [1] For the purposes of this paper, Turkey's neighbourhood contains immediate neighbours Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Black Sea countries of Russia, Romania, Ukraine and Moldova. Due to political reasons, there is no direct trade between Turkey–Armenia and Turkey–Cyprus and no direct movement of people between Turkey–Cyprus.

 [2] T.C. Basbakanlik Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu (TUIK), < http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id = 12&ust_id = 4>. All foreign trade figures in this section depend on TUIK data unless otherwise noted.

 [3] Based on TUIK data.

 [4] Based on TUIK data.

 [5] For a discussion of the concept of ‘trading state’ with respect to Turkey, see Kemal Kirişci, ‘The transformation of Turkish foreign policy: the rise of the trading state’, New Perspectives on Turkey, 40, 2009, pp. 29–57.

 [6] ‘World Development Indicators’, World Bank, Washington, DC.

 [7] ‘World Development Indicators’, World Bank, Washington, DC; Undersecretariat of the Prime Ministry for Foreign Trade (DTM), ‘Dış Ticaretin Görünümü: 2008’, p. 26.

 [8] Dimitris Tsarouhas, ‘The political economy of Greek–Turkish relations’, Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 9(1/2), 2009, pp. 39–57; Kadri Kaan Renda, ‘Turkey's neighborhood policy: an emerging complex interdependence’, Insight Turkey, 13(1), winter 2011, pp. 89–108; Mustafa Kutlay, ‘Economy as the “practical hand” of “new Turkish foreign policy”: a political economy explanation’, Insight Turkey, 13(1), winter 2011, pp. 67–88; Ziya Öniş, ‘Multiple faces of the “new Turkish foreign policy”: a political economy explanation’, Insight Turkey, 13(1), winter 2011, pp. 47–66 and Thomas Straubhaar, ‘Turkey as an economic neighbor’, in Ronald Linden et al., Turkey and its Neighbors: Foreign Relations in Transition, Lyne Rienner, Boulder, CO, 2012, pp. 173–194.

 [9] Calculated from Table 9 downloaded from < http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/uyp/uyp_excel.php> (accessed 10 November 2012).

[10] ‘Müteahhitlik Alanında Bilgi Notu’, < www.ydmh.gov.tr> (accessed 29 March 2011).

[11] Kemal Kirişci, ‘A friendlier Schengen visa system as a tool of “soft power”: the experience of Turkey’, European Journal of Migration and Law, 7(4), 2005, pp. 343–367.

[12] The 1991 figures are based on the Ministry of Culture and Tourism database. Other years' figures are based on the General Directorate of Security database.

[13] These destinations were one in the Soviet Union (Moscow since 1989), one in Greece (Athens since 1947), two in Iran (Tabriz since 1965 and Tehran since 1978), one in Iraq (Baghdad since 1978) and one in Bulgaria (Sofia 1984). Data obtained from Abdullah Nergiz, ‘Türkiye'de Sivil Havacılığın Gelişimi ve THY’, Master's thesis, presented at Marmara University, Social Science Institute, Istanbul, 2008, p. 384 and < www.thy.com.tr>. See also Orçun Selçuk, ‘Turkish Airlines as a soft power tool in the context of Turkish foreign policy’, Master's thesis, presented at Boğaziçi University, Atatürk Institute, Istanbul, 2012.

[14] For the flight information as of June 2012, see p. 6 of < http://www.turkishairlines.com/download/investor_relations/presentations/june_2012.pdf> (accessed 12 September 2012).

[15] Migration and Remittances, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007, p. 58.

[16] Mine Eder, ‘Exploring layers of “Othering”: globalization and female migrant workers in Turkey’, prepared for ‘Continuity and Change in Southeastern Europe’ Conference, Harvard Kennedy School, Kokkalis Program on Southeastern and East Central Europe and Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, 3–4 February 2011, p. 5.

[17] Straubhaar, op. cit., p. 181. This trend is also noted by Oğuzhan Ömer Demir and Alper Sözer, ‘Work and remittance patterns of irregular immigrants in Turkey’, in Ibrahim Sirkeci, Jeffrey Cohen and Dlip Ratha (eds), Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012.

[18] Total Arab entries were 1,150,872 compared to 558,183 from Israel.

[19] ‘Yeni bir Ortadoğu Doğuyor’, Milliyet, 10 June 2010.

[20] MEMRI Blog, ‘Turkey, Syria to hold joint cabinet meeting next month’, November 2009, < http://www.thememriblog.org/turkey/blog_personal/en/22255.htm>. The Turkish government made the decision to suspend strategic cooperation council between both cabinets ‘until a legitimate government that is at peace with its people is in charge in Syria’. ‘Turkey declares its sanctions on Syria’, Hurriyet Daily News, 30 November 2011, < http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-declares-its-sanctions-on-syria.aspx?pageID = 238&nID = 8199&NewsCatID = 338>.

[21] Serah Kekeç, ‘Türkiye'nin Avrupa-Akdeniz Ortakları ile Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmaları’, Ortadoğu Analiz, 2(24), 2011. Turkey has free trade agreements with 15 countries plus members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). With the exception of Chile and EFTA countries all the others are in Turkey's neighbourhood: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in the Balkans, Georgia from the Caucasus and Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Morocco, Syria, Palestine and Tunisia from the Middle East and North Africa. As of September 2012, the FTAs signed with Lebanon, Mauritius and South Korea are awaiting the completion of the ratification processes.

[22] ‘Türkiye Ortadoğu'da 1.5 Trilyonluk Levant Birliği kurdu' [Turkey established a 1.5 trillion dollar Levant Union in the Middle East]’, Euractiv, 5 December 2010, < http://www.euractiv.com.tr/ticaret-ve-sanayi/interview/trkiye-ortadouda-15-trilyonluk-levant-birlii-kurdu-013725>.

[23] Paul Rifkin, ‘The Arab Spring and the Economic Winter’, Middle East Economy, 2(8), October 2012.

[24] Norman Angell, The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National Advantage, G.P. Putnam & Sons, New York and London, 1911.

[25] Louise Fawcett, ‘Alliances, cooperation, and regionalism in the Middle East’, in Louise Fawcett (ed.), International Relations of the Middle East, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005 and Paul Aarts, ‘The Middle East: a region without regionalism or the end of exceptionalism?’, Third World Quarterly, 20(5), 1999, pp. 911–925.

[26] Javad Abadeni and Nicolas Peridy, ‘The Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA): an estimation of the trade effects’, Journal of Economic Integration, 23(4), 2008, pp. 848–872. See also Bezen Balamir Coşkun, ‘Region and region building in the Middle East’, UNU-CRIS Occasional Papers, 2006.

[27] Bülent Aras, ‘The Davutoğlu era in Turkish foreign policy’, Insight Turkey, 11(3), 2009, p. 131.

[28] Ahmet Sözen, ‘A paradigm shift in Turkish foreign policy: transition and challenges’, Turkish Studies, 11(1), 2010, pp. 103–123 and Kutlay, op. cit.

[29] Şaban Kardaş ‘Turkey: redrawing the Middle East map or building sandcastles?’, Middle East Policy, 17(1), 2010, pp. 122–123.

[30] Steven Larabbee, ‘Turkey discovers the Middle East’, Foreign Affairs, 86(4), July–August 2007.

[31] Patrick Seale, ‘The collapse of Turkey's Middle East policy’, Middle East Online, 5 September 2012.

[32] Ilter Turan, ‘Rise and fall of Turkey's Middle East foreign policy’, GMF On Turkey Series, 9 October 2012 and Erol Cebeci and Kadir Üstün, ‘The Syrian quagmire: what's holding Turkey back?’, Insight Turkey, 14(3), 2012, pp. 13–21.

[33] Fuat Keyman, ‘Globalization, modernity and democracy: in search of a viable domestic polity for a sustainable Turkish foreign policy’, New Perspectives on Turkey, No. 40, 2009, pp. 7–27; Öniş, op. cit.

[34] Meltem Müftüler-Baç and Fuat Keyman, ‘The era of dominant-party politics’, Journal of Democracy, 23(1), 2012, pp. 85–99.

[35] Henry Barkey, ‘Turkey's new engagement in Iraq: embracing Iraqi Kurdistan’, United States Institute of Peace: Special Report, No. 237, May 2010.

[36] Ragan Updegraff, ‘The Kurdish question’, Journal of Democracy, 23(1), 2012, pp. 119–128.

[37] Mensur Akgün et al., Ortadoğu'da Türkiye Algısı 2010, TESEV Yayınları, Istanbul, February 2011, p. 14 and Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar, Ortadoğu'da Türkiye Algısı 2011, TESEV Yayınları, Istanbul, January 2012, p. 22.

[38] International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and the Middle East: ambitions and constraints’, Europe Report No. 203, 7 April 2010, p. ii.

[39] See, for example, ‘I am not a neo-Ottoman, Davutoğlu says’, Today's Zaman, 25 November 2009.

[40] Interview with Cemal Kafadar, Ezgi Başaran, ‘Türkiye'nin emperyal bir projesi olduğu konuşuluyor’, Radikal, 2 January 2012.

[41] For a discussion of Turkey as a ‘hegemon’ in the Arab world, Malik Mufti, ‘A little America: the emergence of Turkish hegemony’, Middle East Brief (Crown Center, Brandeis University), No. 51, May 2011 and ibid.

[42] The unit is in billion USD. Turkey's GDP in the year 2011 (in constant 2000 USD) is 423 billion. The total GDP of the remaining neighbourhood countries Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq and Syria, is 360 billion USD for the year 2011. The data for Syria is from 2010. Data is based on World Development Indicators.

[43] FTA countries' (except Chile, EFTA countries and Israel) combined GDP in constant 2000 USD is 340 billion in 2008, 350 billion in 2009, 362 billion in 2010 and 369 billion in 2011 (the data for Syria is from 2010). Turkey's GDP in constant 2000 USD is 375 billion in 2008, 357 billion in 2009, 390 billion in 2010 and 423 billion in 2011. Based on World Development Indicators Database.

[44] Renda, op. cit., p. 106.

[45] For a sobering and empirical analysis of these limits, see Osman Bahadır Diçer and Mustafa Kutlay, Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu'daki Güç Kapasitesi: Mümkünün Sınırları, Uluslararası Stratejik Araştırmalar Kurumu, Ankara, April 2012. For the limits of ‘unilateral activism’, see Ziya Öniş, ‘Turkey and the Arab Spring: between ethics and self-interest’, Insight Turkey, 14(3), 2012, pp. 45–63.