Davutoğlu Era in Turkish Foreign Policy Revisited

Abstract

The challenges of the Arab Spring and of Syrian unrest in particular have generated scholarly debate on Ahmet Davutoğlu's broadly appreciated ‘zero problems with neighbours’ principle in Turkish foreign policy. This paper presents an assessment of the viability of the Davutoğlu vision and the changing parameters of foreign policy in a new era. It concludes with a discussion of a crucial question: ‘Is this the end of Davutoğlu's foreign policy vision?’

Notes

^[1] Sinan Ülgen, ‘Turkey's Syria conundrum’, National Interest, 24 August 2012; Sinan Ülgen, ‘A transformed Turkey: what is the role for Ankara as a regional power?’, SAIS Review, 32(2), 2012, pp. 41–51.

^[2] Ömer Taşpınar, ‘Turkey's strategic vision and Syria’, Washington Quarterly, 35(3), 2012, p. 135.

^[3] Soli Özel, ‘The AKP's foreign policy in context’, in Dimitar Bechav (ed.), What Does Turkey Think, ECFR, London, 2011, p. 74; Soli Özel, Waves, Ways and Historical Turns: Turkey's Strategic Quest, GMF Policy Brief on Turkey, 30 January 2012.

^[4] Philip Robins, ‘Turkey's “double gravity” predicament: the foreign policy of a newly activist power’, International Affairs, 89(2), 2013, p. 397.

^[5] Ibid., p. 397.

^[6] Soner Çağaptay, The New Turkey and U.S. Policy, WINEP, Washington, DC, 2013.

^[7] İhsan Dağı, ‘Suriye Politikamız: Ya Hep Ya Hiç’ [Our Syrian policy: all-or-nothing], Zaman, 2 December 2011; İhsan Dağı, ‘Yalnız Ülkem’ [My lonely country], Zaman, 7 September 2012; İhsan Dağı, ‘What's wrong with the zero problems policy?’, Today's Zaman, 21 October 2012.

^[8] Ziya Öniş, ‘Turkey and the Arab Spring: between ethics and self interest’, Insight Turkey, 14(3), 2012, pp. 45–63; Ziya Öniş, ‘Turkey and the Arab revolutions: boundaries of regional power influence in a turbulent Middle East’, Mediterranean Politics, 2014, DOI: 10.1080/13629395.2013.868392

^[9] Gönül Tol, ‘The Turkish model in the Middle East’, Current History, 111(749), 2012, pp. 350–353.

^[10] Emin Fuat Keyman, ‘Türkiye'nin Üç İkilemi’ [Turkey's three dilemmas], Milliyet, 14 November 2012.

^[11] Kemal Kirişci and Neslihan Kaptanoğlu, ‘The politics of trade and Turkish foreign policy’, Middle Eastern Studies, 47(5), 2011, p. 719.

^[12] Ibid., pp. 719–720.

^[13] Şaban Kardaş, From Zero Problems to Leading the Change: Making Sense of Transformation in Turkey's Regional Policy, TEPAV-ILPI Turkey Policy Brief Series, 1(5), 2012, p. 5.

^[14] Ibid., p. 3.

^[15] Ibid., p. 4.

^[16] Tarık Oğuzlu, The ‘Arab Spring’ and the Rise of the 2.0 Version of Turkey's ‘Zero Problems with Neighbors’ Policy, Sam Papers, 1(1), 2012; Kardaş, op. cit., p. 4.

^[17] Oğuzlu, op. cit., p. 4.

^[18] Interview by the author with Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ankara, 11 February 2013.

^[19] Ahmet Davutoğlu, Principles of Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Political Structuring, SAM Vision Papers, 1(3), April 2012.

^[20] Ibid.

^[21] For a compilation of his speeches, see Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Küresel Barış Vizyonu, [The Global Peace Vision], Adım Yayınları, İstanbul, 2012.

^[22] Şaban Kardaş, Global Swing States and International Order: A Turkish View, GMF Policy Brief on Turkey, 21 December 2012, p. 4.

^[23] Bülent Aras, ‘Erdoğan's Syria problem’, New Europe, 22 April 2014.

^[24] Interview by the author with İbrahim Kalın, Deputy Undersecretary of Prime Ministry and Chief Advisor to Prime Minister, Ankara, 16 February 2013.

^[25] Interview by the author with Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ankara, 9 February 2013.

^[26] For a detailed overview of Turkey's mediation policy, see Ahmet Davutoğlu, ‘Turkey's mediation: critical reflections from the field’, Middle East Policy, 20(1), Spring 2013, pp. 83–90.

^[27] Hamza Jilani, ‘Syrian opposition meeting pledges stable transition’, Gulf Times, 9 March 2013.

^[28] Author's unattributable interview with a Senior Diplomat at Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ankara, 15 February 2013.

^[29] Şaban Kardaş, ‘Suriye Politikası: Yalnızlık, Sertleşmek, Liberal Korkular’ [Syria policy: solitude, hardening, liberal fears], Zaman, 13 September 2012.

^[30] Interview by the author with İbrahim Kalın, Deputy Undersecretary of Prime Ministry and Chief Advisor to Prime Minister, Ankara, 16 February 2013.

^[31] Author's own observation as chair of Special Commission on International Cooperation for Development. This commission was established by Ministry of Development as an advisory for contributing to Turkey's 10th Development Plan from 2014 to 2018.

^[32] Ahmet Davutoğlu, ‘Zero problems with neighbors: firm and alive’, Foreign Policy, 21 March 2013, < http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/21/zero_problems_in_a_new_era_turkey> (accessed 24 April 2014).

^[33] See Ahmet Davutoğlu, ‘Büyük Restorasyon: Kadim'den Küreselleşmeye Yeni Siyaset Anlayışımız’ [The Great Restoration: our understanding of politics from the Ancient Times to global], speech at Dicle University, 15 March 2013, < http://www.mfa.gov.tr/disisleri-bakani-davutoglu-diyarbakir-dicle-universitesi-ogrencilerine-hitap-etti.tr.mfa> (accessed 24 April 2014).

^[34] ‘Adana Valiliğinden Tır Açıklaması’ [Explanation on truck by Adana governership], Sabah, 19 January 2014.

^[35] Davutoğlu, ‘Turkey's mediation’, op. cit.

^[36] Hakan Fidan, Undersecretary of National Intelligence Organization underlines that ‘With the multiplying of actors and instruments that have an input in the making of Turkish foreign policy, the need for better coordination becomes obvious.’ See Hakan Fidan, ‘A work in progress: the new Turkish foreign policy’, Middle East Policy, 20(1), Spring 2013, p. 96.

^[37] Summits organized or attended by Turkey in June 2012: United Nations Alliance of Civilizations Summit (31 May–1 June), Second Istanbul Conference on Somalia (1 June), GCTF—The Second Meeting of the Coordinating Committee of Global Counterterrorism Forum (7 June), The Third Turkey–EU Ministerial Political Dialogue Meeting (7 June), The First Trilateral Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia (8 June), The Istanbul Process Ministerial Conference, Kabul (14 June), NPDI—Ministerial Meeting of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative (16 June), Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), 20th Anniversary Summit Meeting of Heads of State and Government (26 June).

^[38] İbrahim Kalın, ‘Türkiye Artık Ölçek Küçültemez’ [Turkey cannot be scaled down no longer], Yeni Şafak, 22 January 2013.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Bülent Aras

Bülent Aras is Professor of International Relations, Sabancı University, Istanbul and Global Fellow, Wilson Center, Washington, DC. Academic coordinator of the Project on the Middle East and Arab Spring (POMEAS). Former head of Center for Strategic Studies and Diplomatic Academy of Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.